The science that could explain the federal election result
So voters switch sides, pushing policy back towards the ordinary voter's view. The more extreme we go in one direction, the more extreme the pushback – think of Tony Abbott winning a landslide in 2013 then, after an austerity budget, being turfed out less than two years into his term.
If you buy that, expect 2025 to be Albanese's high-water mark.
Thermostasis 'helps to explain why sometimes views appear to regress – some voters think immigration or feminism have 'gone too far',' says Dr Jill Sheppard, a senior lecturer in the School of Politics at the Australian National University.
But it doesn't explain our politics as well as it does America's because our party system means leaders are limited in their ability to 'overshoot' public views and become too extreme. 'You'll lose your job before voters get a chance to turn on you,' Sheppard says.
Explanation two: Long-term structural changes
Sheppard and Ian McAllister, distinguished professor of political science at the Australian National University, are part of a team tracking political sentiment via the long-running Australian Election Study.
From that perch, McAllister doesn't see a thermostatic electorate constantly pulling policy towards the centre; he sees an electorate 'moving gradually to the centre-left'.
The study puts this shift about 0.5 points (out of 10) from right to left since 1996 – and closer to 1 per cent if you just look at young voters.
Before Saturday's election, Dutton said he expected younger Greens voters would 'mature politically' into Coalition supporters. But this idea – that voters change how they vote as they age – has long been called bunkum by political scientists. Instead, it is who you cast your first adult vote for that significantly sets the tone for the rest of your voting life.
This has long-term structural implications. In 2022, the Coalition had the lowest recorded vote share among voters under 40 for a major party in the history of the Australian Election Study. 'I'm sure when we get our 2025 data, it will be even more pronounced,' says McAllister.
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But we are also seeing a dramatic increase in 'electoral volatility'. Voters are much more willing to change their vote, and to vote for minor parties. In 1967, 72 per cent of all voters said they hadn't changed their vote in their lifetimes. In 2022, that had fallen to 37 per cent.
This hurts both parties, but it hurts the Coalition more. Labor voters tend to move to the Greens, their preferences flowing back to Labor; Coalition voters tend to move to other minor parties or independents.
And there's a third trend McAllister sees – perhaps the most-fascinating.
We can often focus more on politics than policy with the expectation voters don't care that much about the details. But this is changing. As voters become more educated, they start to take a keener interest in policy itself. 'It's been one of the big changes we've seen over the past 30 years,' says McAllister.
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Between half and two-thirds of voters say they base their vote on policy, not politics. Given how policy-lite our current politics are – a quarter of voters said there was no difference between the parties at the 2022 election – there seems an obvious strategy here for either party to win voters back. Just write good policy!
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The Advertiser
9 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Budget blowout, $1b stadium and new ships sink premier
HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium
Sky News AU
12 hours ago
- Sky News AU
‘Whitlam-esque': Zoe McKenzie blasts Labor's divisive tax hike on super accounts, slams Tasmanian opposition for triggering early election
Victorian Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie has lambasted Labor for continuing to advance its plan to hike taxes on superannuation accounts and impose levies on unrealised gains whilst hammering the Tasmanian opposition for sending punters to a winter election. Labor's plan to raise taxes on superannuation accounts over $3 million to 30 per cent and to target unrealised capital gains has sent shockwaves throughout the political and business arena, with financial doyens accusing the government of discarding decades of precedent. The Coalition was previously in talks with the Albanese government to revise certain elements of the legislation, chiefly the concept of taxing unrealised gains, however shadow Treasurer Ted O'Brien officially confirmed on Thursday the LNP would oppose the bill. Yet, former Reserve Bank board members Donald McGauchie and Roger Corbett, in addition to a litany of major Liberal Party donors, have pressed the Coalition to remain at the negotiating table and to secure what it deems crucial exemptions for illiquid assets including farms and small businesses. Ms McKenzie, an outspoken moderate who holds one of the Liberal's last outer-suburban seats, railed against the policy, but did not address if the Coalition would resume talks with Labor to modify the legislation. 'I think this is a terrible piece of policy and a terrible precedent for the future, Labor is effectively saying that they will tax money in your pocket, and you do not yet have this money,' she told Sky News on Saturday. The Member for Flinders echoed criticism from industry magnates in relation to the controversial concept of taxing unrealised gains, stating, 'you may have it in the future, you may not have it in the future, but you will be taxed on it'. 'You may incur a loss in the figure, and you won't get that tax back and that's the principle that we must fight here, because once it's started, it could go anywhere,' indicating that the tax could be extended to a range of other assets including real estate and stocks. 'This is a devilish tax and should be fought by the Coalition parties most stridently, this government is very good at speaking liberal-light in terms of their economic narrative, but it is utterly Whitlam-esque in terms of its impact on the Australian economy'. While the Coalition has vowed to fight the legislation, the bill is expected to pass both houses of parliament unopposed, with the Greens joining with Labor in the Senate despite lobbying for the policy to be levied on those with super accounts over $2 million. 'The point is they're going after money no one yet has, these are paper profits, these are family businesses, these are farms held in super funds that people may well have to liquidate just to pass a putative profit that may not exist when finally realised in years to come," Ms McKenzie said. 'They will need the Greens support in the Senate and as you know, the Greens are pushing to lower that threshold from three million to two million. So, it gives the Australian people a very clear indication of what might happen when Labor and the Greens run the show for the next three years'. The shadow assistant minister then turned her attention to the ongoing political chaos in Tasmania. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in parliament on Thursday, with the speaker casting the deciding vote, resulting in the state heading to it's second election in as little as 14 months. Ms McKenzie savaged Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter for sending the state to a snap winter poll and argued the opposition parties had collectively torpedoed a popularly elected government. 'I think the Tasmanian people would be very disappointed with what's happened this week, basically holding an elected government hostage, so it looks like they will be going back to a mid-winter election. We've all done them and they're horrendous," she said. 'I'm sure the people of Tasmania will not be grateful for being dragged back to the polls so soon after a federal election and indeed just 14 months after a state election." Tasmanians will have to wait until next Tuesday to find out when they will return to the polls, with the parliament scrambling to draft emergency legislation to fund government services of which are due to be tabled on the same day. Independent MPs including Craig Garland have called on the beleaguered Premier to resign, with Mr Rockliff guaranteeing he would not sell off state-owned assets to pay down debt if he won the election, of which served as a key factor in sparking the political row.
The Advertiser
18 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Hearing voices: why the Nats should be watching their backs
The community independent movement did not begin in Sydney or Melbourne, but in the bush. It was in the rural Victorian seat of Indi, encompassing Wodonga and Wangaratta, that independent Cathy McGowan was drafted by community group Voices of Indi. In 2013, McGowan delivered the Liberal Party its only loss when she won the formerly safe seat from Sophie Mirabella. The subsequent success of inner city "teals" - community independents like Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney - is evidence that Liberal neglect of classical-liberal and metropolitan voters has come back to haunt them. But soul searching is due in the bush as well, particularly among Nationals. So far, they have been criticised for unforced errors (like quitting the Liberal-National Coalition only to rejoin it days later) rather than structural weaknesses, like their preference of mining interests over agricultural ones and their inability to win back seats lost since the 1990s. Conditions are ripe for the Nationals to face challenges from independents on the same scale as those already faced by the Liberals. And while Indi's "Voices of" model of community organising and drafting candidates was an innovation, the country has long been friendly to independents. Father of the House of Representatives Bob Katter is a rural independent, as were Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, who negotiated minority government with Julia Gillard in 2010. Windsor and Oakeshott sat in the NSW Parliament before the jump to Commonwealth politics, and today the NSW crossbench boasts 10 independent MPs, mostly from regional and rural parts of the state. Many independent-held NSW seats overlap with federal seats held by Nationals (like Riverina and Parkes) or regional Liberals (like Farrer and Hume). And at the last two federal elections, independent candidates have turned National and Liberal-National seats like Cowper and Groom marginal. There is a perception that the junior National Party has been the tail wagging the dog, with the Liberals taking up the obsessions of National MPs - in particular nuclear energy. And while Coalition Governments dutifully "pork-barrelled" public money for safe regional seats, they neglected apparently safe urban seats held by Liberals. This helps explain why Liberals now hold mostly regional and rural seats, and barely exists in the inner-city. But big spending programs disguise how country interests have become diluted. Being in Coalition with the Liberal Party has weakened the ability of the National Party to advocate forcefully for the interests of those in regional and rural Australia. Famously, former National leader Michael McCormack could not name one time the Nationals had taken the side of farmers over that of miners. Similarly, in the last Coalition government, Nationals spruiked and voted for Scott Morrison's original stage three tax cuts - even though Nationals electorates had the least to gain. When the Albanese Labor government reformed stage three, the biggest winners were Australians living in Nationals seats. Regional and rural areas would benefit from increased public spending on education, health, public transport and infrastructure; all of which are harder to fund after the tax cuts eagerly pursued by Liberal-National governments. They are most at risk from climate change, and bear the brunt of disasters amplified by a warming earth. Independents like Cathy McGowan, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have recognised this, as have those running in more recent elections like Helen Haines. It is true that the Nationals still hold about as many lower house seats today as they did at the height of the Howard Coalition Government, and many are still nominally safe seats. But in recent elections, both Liberal and Labor Party MPs have learned the hard way that there is no such thing as a safe seat against the right challenger. Australia Institute research shows Australians are unique among Western democracies in their willingness to elect independents. Regional challengers to the major parties will not be cut from the same cloth as community independents in the cities, the so-called "teals". Regional and rural Australians have responded to somewhat different arguments, from somewhat different candidates. We could call these candidates "tans" - from the colour of their pants, and because it is "Nat" in reverse. Of course, none of this is predestined - nor was the Liberal Party doomed to veer to the right and leave behind moderate and classically liberal voters. These are the result of choices made by voters, by party rank-and-file and by elected representatives. A couple of weeks ago, the Nationals made a choice - to quit the Coalition - which suggested a willingness to rethink the old saws. Unfortunately, the reason was not to give the Nationals freedom to consider new ways of representing the country, but to allow them to hold onto failed policies like nuclear power. These policies failed to resonate with voters. And the united front of Liberals and Nationals held back rural candidates. Mia Davies, former leader of the WA Nationals (a more independently minded branch than those in NSW or Victoria) and a candidate in the federal election, thought her job was made harder by the opposition of Liberal shadow ministers to Labor's resources production tax credit scheme. READ MORE: What Angus Taylor called "billions for billionaires", Davies called "good policy". But Davies was a rare Coalition candidate who went against the party line. The effect is a decimated Liberal-National Coalition. And while it is mostly the Liberals who have lost seats, the Nationals have re-attached to the Coalition, which means their future relevance depends on the Liberals recovering 30-odd seats, and the Nationals winning a couple themselves off Labor - something the Nationals haven't managed to do since 2013. Once, National candidates could promise their electorate a voice in the government. With that looking a long way away, it is now independent and minor party candidates who can promise relevance: starting national debates, probing the government in question time and perhaps being at the heart of negotiations in the event of a future power-sharing Parliament. If the Nats are not interested in serving the interests of those in rural and regional Australia, they will find no shortage of "tans" willing to throw their Akubras in the ring. The community independent movement did not begin in Sydney or Melbourne, but in the bush. It was in the rural Victorian seat of Indi, encompassing Wodonga and Wangaratta, that independent Cathy McGowan was drafted by community group Voices of Indi. In 2013, McGowan delivered the Liberal Party its only loss when she won the formerly safe seat from Sophie Mirabella. The subsequent success of inner city "teals" - community independents like Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney - is evidence that Liberal neglect of classical-liberal and metropolitan voters has come back to haunt them. But soul searching is due in the bush as well, particularly among Nationals. So far, they have been criticised for unforced errors (like quitting the Liberal-National Coalition only to rejoin it days later) rather than structural weaknesses, like their preference of mining interests over agricultural ones and their inability to win back seats lost since the 1990s. Conditions are ripe for the Nationals to face challenges from independents on the same scale as those already faced by the Liberals. And while Indi's "Voices of" model of community organising and drafting candidates was an innovation, the country has long been friendly to independents. Father of the House of Representatives Bob Katter is a rural independent, as were Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, who negotiated minority government with Julia Gillard in 2010. Windsor and Oakeshott sat in the NSW Parliament before the jump to Commonwealth politics, and today the NSW crossbench boasts 10 independent MPs, mostly from regional and rural parts of the state. Many independent-held NSW seats overlap with federal seats held by Nationals (like Riverina and Parkes) or regional Liberals (like Farrer and Hume). And at the last two federal elections, independent candidates have turned National and Liberal-National seats like Cowper and Groom marginal. There is a perception that the junior National Party has been the tail wagging the dog, with the Liberals taking up the obsessions of National MPs - in particular nuclear energy. And while Coalition Governments dutifully "pork-barrelled" public money for safe regional seats, they neglected apparently safe urban seats held by Liberals. This helps explain why Liberals now hold mostly regional and rural seats, and barely exists in the inner-city. But big spending programs disguise how country interests have become diluted. Being in Coalition with the Liberal Party has weakened the ability of the National Party to advocate forcefully for the interests of those in regional and rural Australia. Famously, former National leader Michael McCormack could not name one time the Nationals had taken the side of farmers over that of miners. Similarly, in the last Coalition government, Nationals spruiked and voted for Scott Morrison's original stage three tax cuts - even though Nationals electorates had the least to gain. When the Albanese Labor government reformed stage three, the biggest winners were Australians living in Nationals seats. Regional and rural areas would benefit from increased public spending on education, health, public transport and infrastructure; all of which are harder to fund after the tax cuts eagerly pursued by Liberal-National governments. They are most at risk from climate change, and bear the brunt of disasters amplified by a warming earth. Independents like Cathy McGowan, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have recognised this, as have those running in more recent elections like Helen Haines. It is true that the Nationals still hold about as many lower house seats today as they did at the height of the Howard Coalition Government, and many are still nominally safe seats. But in recent elections, both Liberal and Labor Party MPs have learned the hard way that there is no such thing as a safe seat against the right challenger. Australia Institute research shows Australians are unique among Western democracies in their willingness to elect independents. Regional challengers to the major parties will not be cut from the same cloth as community independents in the cities, the so-called "teals". Regional and rural Australians have responded to somewhat different arguments, from somewhat different candidates. We could call these candidates "tans" - from the colour of their pants, and because it is "Nat" in reverse. Of course, none of this is predestined - nor was the Liberal Party doomed to veer to the right and leave behind moderate and classically liberal voters. These are the result of choices made by voters, by party rank-and-file and by elected representatives. A couple of weeks ago, the Nationals made a choice - to quit the Coalition - which suggested a willingness to rethink the old saws. Unfortunately, the reason was not to give the Nationals freedom to consider new ways of representing the country, but to allow them to hold onto failed policies like nuclear power. These policies failed to resonate with voters. And the united front of Liberals and Nationals held back rural candidates. Mia Davies, former leader of the WA Nationals (a more independently minded branch than those in NSW or Victoria) and a candidate in the federal election, thought her job was made harder by the opposition of Liberal shadow ministers to Labor's resources production tax credit scheme. READ MORE: What Angus Taylor called "billions for billionaires", Davies called "good policy". But Davies was a rare Coalition candidate who went against the party line. The effect is a decimated Liberal-National Coalition. And while it is mostly the Liberals who have lost seats, the Nationals have re-attached to the Coalition, which means their future relevance depends on the Liberals recovering 30-odd seats, and the Nationals winning a couple themselves off Labor - something the Nationals haven't managed to do since 2013. Once, National candidates could promise their electorate a voice in the government. With that looking a long way away, it is now independent and minor party candidates who can promise relevance: starting national debates, probing the government in question time and perhaps being at the heart of negotiations in the event of a future power-sharing Parliament. If the Nats are not interested in serving the interests of those in rural and regional Australia, they will find no shortage of "tans" willing to throw their Akubras in the ring. The community independent movement did not begin in Sydney or Melbourne, but in the bush. It was in the rural Victorian seat of Indi, encompassing Wodonga and Wangaratta, that independent Cathy McGowan was drafted by community group Voices of Indi. In 2013, McGowan delivered the Liberal Party its only loss when she won the formerly safe seat from Sophie Mirabella. The subsequent success of inner city "teals" - community independents like Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney - is evidence that Liberal neglect of classical-liberal and metropolitan voters has come back to haunt them. But soul searching is due in the bush as well, particularly among Nationals. So far, they have been criticised for unforced errors (like quitting the Liberal-National Coalition only to rejoin it days later) rather than structural weaknesses, like their preference of mining interests over agricultural ones and their inability to win back seats lost since the 1990s. Conditions are ripe for the Nationals to face challenges from independents on the same scale as those already faced by the Liberals. And while Indi's "Voices of" model of community organising and drafting candidates was an innovation, the country has long been friendly to independents. Father of the House of Representatives Bob Katter is a rural independent, as were Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, who negotiated minority government with Julia Gillard in 2010. Windsor and Oakeshott sat in the NSW Parliament before the jump to Commonwealth politics, and today the NSW crossbench boasts 10 independent MPs, mostly from regional and rural parts of the state. Many independent-held NSW seats overlap with federal seats held by Nationals (like Riverina and Parkes) or regional Liberals (like Farrer and Hume). And at the last two federal elections, independent candidates have turned National and Liberal-National seats like Cowper and Groom marginal. There is a perception that the junior National Party has been the tail wagging the dog, with the Liberals taking up the obsessions of National MPs - in particular nuclear energy. And while Coalition Governments dutifully "pork-barrelled" public money for safe regional seats, they neglected apparently safe urban seats held by Liberals. This helps explain why Liberals now hold mostly regional and rural seats, and barely exists in the inner-city. But big spending programs disguise how country interests have become diluted. Being in Coalition with the Liberal Party has weakened the ability of the National Party to advocate forcefully for the interests of those in regional and rural Australia. Famously, former National leader Michael McCormack could not name one time the Nationals had taken the side of farmers over that of miners. Similarly, in the last Coalition government, Nationals spruiked and voted for Scott Morrison's original stage three tax cuts - even though Nationals electorates had the least to gain. When the Albanese Labor government reformed stage three, the biggest winners were Australians living in Nationals seats. Regional and rural areas would benefit from increased public spending on education, health, public transport and infrastructure; all of which are harder to fund after the tax cuts eagerly pursued by Liberal-National governments. They are most at risk from climate change, and bear the brunt of disasters amplified by a warming earth. Independents like Cathy McGowan, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have recognised this, as have those running in more recent elections like Helen Haines. It is true that the Nationals still hold about as many lower house seats today as they did at the height of the Howard Coalition Government, and many are still nominally safe seats. But in recent elections, both Liberal and Labor Party MPs have learned the hard way that there is no such thing as a safe seat against the right challenger. Australia Institute research shows Australians are unique among Western democracies in their willingness to elect independents. Regional challengers to the major parties will not be cut from the same cloth as community independents in the cities, the so-called "teals". Regional and rural Australians have responded to somewhat different arguments, from somewhat different candidates. We could call these candidates "tans" - from the colour of their pants, and because it is "Nat" in reverse. Of course, none of this is predestined - nor was the Liberal Party doomed to veer to the right and leave behind moderate and classically liberal voters. These are the result of choices made by voters, by party rank-and-file and by elected representatives. A couple of weeks ago, the Nationals made a choice - to quit the Coalition - which suggested a willingness to rethink the old saws. Unfortunately, the reason was not to give the Nationals freedom to consider new ways of representing the country, but to allow them to hold onto failed policies like nuclear power. These policies failed to resonate with voters. And the united front of Liberals and Nationals held back rural candidates. Mia Davies, former leader of the WA Nationals (a more independently minded branch than those in NSW or Victoria) and a candidate in the federal election, thought her job was made harder by the opposition of Liberal shadow ministers to Labor's resources production tax credit scheme. READ MORE: What Angus Taylor called "billions for billionaires", Davies called "good policy". But Davies was a rare Coalition candidate who went against the party line. The effect is a decimated Liberal-National Coalition. And while it is mostly the Liberals who have lost seats, the Nationals have re-attached to the Coalition, which means their future relevance depends on the Liberals recovering 30-odd seats, and the Nationals winning a couple themselves off Labor - something the Nationals haven't managed to do since 2013. Once, National candidates could promise their electorate a voice in the government. With that looking a long way away, it is now independent and minor party candidates who can promise relevance: starting national debates, probing the government in question time and perhaps being at the heart of negotiations in the event of a future power-sharing Parliament. If the Nats are not interested in serving the interests of those in rural and regional Australia, they will find no shortage of "tans" willing to throw their Akubras in the ring. The community independent movement did not begin in Sydney or Melbourne, but in the bush. It was in the rural Victorian seat of Indi, encompassing Wodonga and Wangaratta, that independent Cathy McGowan was drafted by community group Voices of Indi. In 2013, McGowan delivered the Liberal Party its only loss when she won the formerly safe seat from Sophie Mirabella. The subsequent success of inner city "teals" - community independents like Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney - is evidence that Liberal neglect of classical-liberal and metropolitan voters has come back to haunt them. But soul searching is due in the bush as well, particularly among Nationals. So far, they have been criticised for unforced errors (like quitting the Liberal-National Coalition only to rejoin it days later) rather than structural weaknesses, like their preference of mining interests over agricultural ones and their inability to win back seats lost since the 1990s. Conditions are ripe for the Nationals to face challenges from independents on the same scale as those already faced by the Liberals. And while Indi's "Voices of" model of community organising and drafting candidates was an innovation, the country has long been friendly to independents. Father of the House of Representatives Bob Katter is a rural independent, as were Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, who negotiated minority government with Julia Gillard in 2010. Windsor and Oakeshott sat in the NSW Parliament before the jump to Commonwealth politics, and today the NSW crossbench boasts 10 independent MPs, mostly from regional and rural parts of the state. Many independent-held NSW seats overlap with federal seats held by Nationals (like Riverina and Parkes) or regional Liberals (like Farrer and Hume). And at the last two federal elections, independent candidates have turned National and Liberal-National seats like Cowper and Groom marginal. There is a perception that the junior National Party has been the tail wagging the dog, with the Liberals taking up the obsessions of National MPs - in particular nuclear energy. And while Coalition Governments dutifully "pork-barrelled" public money for safe regional seats, they neglected apparently safe urban seats held by Liberals. This helps explain why Liberals now hold mostly regional and rural seats, and barely exists in the inner-city. But big spending programs disguise how country interests have become diluted. Being in Coalition with the Liberal Party has weakened the ability of the National Party to advocate forcefully for the interests of those in regional and rural Australia. Famously, former National leader Michael McCormack could not name one time the Nationals had taken the side of farmers over that of miners. Similarly, in the last Coalition government, Nationals spruiked and voted for Scott Morrison's original stage three tax cuts - even though Nationals electorates had the least to gain. When the Albanese Labor government reformed stage three, the biggest winners were Australians living in Nationals seats. Regional and rural areas would benefit from increased public spending on education, health, public transport and infrastructure; all of which are harder to fund after the tax cuts eagerly pursued by Liberal-National governments. They are most at risk from climate change, and bear the brunt of disasters amplified by a warming earth. Independents like Cathy McGowan, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have recognised this, as have those running in more recent elections like Helen Haines. It is true that the Nationals still hold about as many lower house seats today as they did at the height of the Howard Coalition Government, and many are still nominally safe seats. But in recent elections, both Liberal and Labor Party MPs have learned the hard way that there is no such thing as a safe seat against the right challenger. Australia Institute research shows Australians are unique among Western democracies in their willingness to elect independents. Regional challengers to the major parties will not be cut from the same cloth as community independents in the cities, the so-called "teals". Regional and rural Australians have responded to somewhat different arguments, from somewhat different candidates. We could call these candidates "tans" - from the colour of their pants, and because it is "Nat" in reverse. Of course, none of this is predestined - nor was the Liberal Party doomed to veer to the right and leave behind moderate and classically liberal voters. These are the result of choices made by voters, by party rank-and-file and by elected representatives. A couple of weeks ago, the Nationals made a choice - to quit the Coalition - which suggested a willingness to rethink the old saws. Unfortunately, the reason was not to give the Nationals freedom to consider new ways of representing the country, but to allow them to hold onto failed policies like nuclear power. These policies failed to resonate with voters. And the united front of Liberals and Nationals held back rural candidates. Mia Davies, former leader of the WA Nationals (a more independently minded branch than those in NSW or Victoria) and a candidate in the federal election, thought her job was made harder by the opposition of Liberal shadow ministers to Labor's resources production tax credit scheme. READ MORE: What Angus Taylor called "billions for billionaires", Davies called "good policy". But Davies was a rare Coalition candidate who went against the party line. The effect is a decimated Liberal-National Coalition. And while it is mostly the Liberals who have lost seats, the Nationals have re-attached to the Coalition, which means their future relevance depends on the Liberals recovering 30-odd seats, and the Nationals winning a couple themselves off Labor - something the Nationals haven't managed to do since 2013. Once, National candidates could promise their electorate a voice in the government. With that looking a long way away, it is now independent and minor party candidates who can promise relevance: starting national debates, probing the government in question time and perhaps being at the heart of negotiations in the event of a future power-sharing Parliament. If the Nats are not interested in serving the interests of those in rural and regional Australia, they will find no shortage of "tans" willing to throw their Akubras in the ring.
