Latest news with #AustralianElectionStudy
Sydney Morning Herald
06-05-2025
- Automotive
- Sydney Morning Herald
The climate won't change for the Liberals without more women and fewer oldies
If the Liberals have any sense, they won't waste too much time blaming their shocking election result on Peter Dutton, Donald Trump, Cyclone Alfred, the party secretariat, an unready shadow ministry or any other 'proximate cause', as economists say. Why not? Because none of these go to the heart of their party's problem. The Liberals' problem is that Australia has changed but their party hasn't. They're like someone still driving a Holden Commodore: a great car in its day but looking pretty outdated today. In other words, the Libs' problem is structural, not merely cyclical. It can't be fixed just by finding a more attractive leader – not unless that leader has the authority to make what many Liberal MPs and party members would regard as radical changes. Liberal leaders have been aware of their party's two key problems for some years without facing up to them. The first is their 'women problem'. While Labor has put much effort into increasing the proportion of women among its parliamentary members and ministers, the Libs have been quite half-hearted about it, refusing to use quotas to speed up the process. I'm sure Labor people have been sincere in believing a roughly 50-50 split should become the norm, but I'm equally sure they're aware of the political advantage that comes with making sure they attract the votes of at least half the female voters, and preferably more. Loading Go back far enough and you find Australia's women slightly more attracted to the Coalition than Labor. Not these days. The Australian National University's Australian Election Study, which uses polling of people after they've voted – at the democracy sausage stage – found that, in the previous, 2022 federal election, while 38 per cent of male respondents voted for the Coalition, only 32 per cent of females did. I'd be surprised if that disparity was much reduced on Saturday, and not surprised if it had increased. Surely a party incapable of attracting its share of the female half of the voting population is a party without a bright future. Did you notice Monday's photo of Labor's just-elected federal members in Brisbane? Seven broadly smiling, youngish women. A lot of them who'd just taken seats from the Libs.
The Age
06-05-2025
- Automotive
- The Age
The climate won't change for the Liberals without more women and fewer oldies
If the Liberals have any sense, they won't waste too much time blaming their shocking election result on Peter Dutton, Donald Trump, Cyclone Alfred, the party secretariat, an unready shadow ministry or any other 'proximate cause', as economists say. Why not? Because none of these go to the heart of their party's problem. The Liberals' problem is that Australia has changed but their party hasn't. They're like someone still driving a Holden Commodore: a great car in its day but looking pretty outdated today. In other words, the Libs' problem is structural, not merely cyclical. It can't be fixed just by finding a more attractive leader – not unless that leader has the authority to make what many Liberal MPs and party members would regard as radical changes. Liberal leaders have been aware of their party's two key problems for some years without facing up to them. The first is their 'women problem'. While Labor has put much effort into increasing the proportion of women among its parliamentary members and ministers, the Libs have been quite half-hearted about it, refusing to use quotas to speed up the process. I'm sure Labor people have been sincere in believing a roughly 50-50 split should become the norm, but I'm equally sure they're aware of the political advantage that comes with making sure they attract the votes of at least half the female voters, and preferably more. Loading Go back far enough and you find Australia's women slightly more attracted to the Coalition than Labor. Not these days. The Australian National University's Australian Election Study, which uses polling of people after they've voted – at the democracy sausage stage – found that, in the previous, 2022 federal election, while 38 per cent of male respondents voted for the Coalition, only 32 per cent of females did. I'd be surprised if that disparity was much reduced on Saturday, and not surprised if it had increased. Surely a party incapable of attracting its share of the female half of the voting population is a party without a bright future. Did you notice Monday's photo of Labor's just-elected federal members in Brisbane? Seven broadly smiling, youngish women. A lot of them who'd just taken seats from the Libs.
Sydney Morning Herald
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
The science that could explain the federal election result
So voters switch sides, pushing policy back towards the ordinary voter's view. The more extreme we go in one direction, the more extreme the pushback – think of Tony Abbott winning a landslide in 2013 then, after an austerity budget, being turfed out less than two years into his term. If you buy that, expect 2025 to be Albanese's high-water mark. Thermostasis 'helps to explain why sometimes views appear to regress – some voters think immigration or feminism have 'gone too far',' says Dr Jill Sheppard, a senior lecturer in the School of Politics at the Australian National University. But it doesn't explain our politics as well as it does America's because our party system means leaders are limited in their ability to 'overshoot' public views and become too extreme. 'You'll lose your job before voters get a chance to turn on you,' Sheppard says. Explanation two: Long-term structural changes Sheppard and Ian McAllister, distinguished professor of political science at the Australian National University, are part of a team tracking political sentiment via the long-running Australian Election Study. From that perch, McAllister doesn't see a thermostatic electorate constantly pulling policy towards the centre; he sees an electorate 'moving gradually to the centre-left'. The study puts this shift about 0.5 points (out of 10) from right to left since 1996 – and closer to 1 per cent if you just look at young voters. Before Saturday's election, Dutton said he expected younger Greens voters would 'mature politically' into Coalition supporters. But this idea – that voters change how they vote as they age – has long been called bunkum by political scientists. Instead, it is who you cast your first adult vote for that significantly sets the tone for the rest of your voting life. This has long-term structural implications. In 2022, the Coalition had the lowest recorded vote share among voters under 40 for a major party in the history of the Australian Election Study. 'I'm sure when we get our 2025 data, it will be even more pronounced,' says McAllister. Loading But we are also seeing a dramatic increase in 'electoral volatility'. Voters are much more willing to change their vote, and to vote for minor parties. In 1967, 72 per cent of all voters said they hadn't changed their vote in their lifetimes. In 2022, that had fallen to 37 per cent. This hurts both parties, but it hurts the Coalition more. Labor voters tend to move to the Greens, their preferences flowing back to Labor; Coalition voters tend to move to other minor parties or independents. And there's a third trend McAllister sees – perhaps the most-fascinating. We can often focus more on politics than policy with the expectation voters don't care that much about the details. But this is changing. As voters become more educated, they start to take a keener interest in policy itself. 'It's been one of the big changes we've seen over the past 30 years,' says McAllister. Loading Between half and two-thirds of voters say they base their vote on policy, not politics. Given how policy-lite our current politics are – a quarter of voters said there was no difference between the parties at the 2022 election – there seems an obvious strategy here for either party to win voters back. Just write good policy!
The Age
06-05-2025
- Politics
- The Age
The science that could explain the federal election result
So voters switch sides, pushing policy back towards the ordinary voter's view. The more extreme we go in one direction, the more extreme the pushback – think of Tony Abbott winning a landslide in 2013 then, after an austerity budget, being turfed out less than two years into his term. If you buy that, expect 2025 to be Albanese's high-water mark. Thermostasis 'helps to explain why sometimes views appear to regress – some voters think immigration or feminism have 'gone too far',' says Dr Jill Sheppard, a senior lecturer in the School of Politics at the Australian National University. But it doesn't explain our politics as well as it does America's because our party system means leaders are limited in their ability to 'overshoot' public views and become too extreme. 'You'll lose your job before voters get a chance to turn on you,' Sheppard says. Explanation two: Long-term structural changes Sheppard and Ian McAllister, distinguished professor of political science at the Australian National University, are part of a team tracking political sentiment via the long-running Australian Election Study. From that perch, McAllister doesn't see a thermostatic electorate constantly pulling policy towards the centre; he sees an electorate 'moving gradually to the centre-left'. The study puts this shift about 0.5 points (out of 10) from right to left since 1996 – and closer to 1 per cent if you just look at young voters. Before Saturday's election, Dutton said he expected younger Greens voters would 'mature politically' into Coalition supporters. But this idea – that voters change how they vote as they age – has long been called bunkum by political scientists. Instead, it is who you cast your first adult vote for that significantly sets the tone for the rest of your voting life. This has long-term structural implications. In 2022, the Coalition had the lowest recorded vote share among voters under 40 for a major party in the history of the Australian Election Study. 'I'm sure when we get our 2025 data, it will be even more pronounced,' says McAllister. Loading But we are also seeing a dramatic increase in 'electoral volatility'. Voters are much more willing to change their vote, and to vote for minor parties. In 1967, 72 per cent of all voters said they hadn't changed their vote in their lifetimes. In 2022, that had fallen to 37 per cent. This hurts both parties, but it hurts the Coalition more. Labor voters tend to move to the Greens, their preferences flowing back to Labor; Coalition voters tend to move to other minor parties or independents. And there's a third trend McAllister sees – perhaps the most-fascinating. We can often focus more on politics than policy with the expectation voters don't care that much about the details. But this is changing. As voters become more educated, they start to take a keener interest in policy itself. 'It's been one of the big changes we've seen over the past 30 years,' says McAllister. Loading Between half and two-thirds of voters say they base their vote on policy, not politics. Given how policy-lite our current politics are – a quarter of voters said there was no difference between the parties at the 2022 election – there seems an obvious strategy here for either party to win voters back. Just write good policy!
The Guardian
05-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Labor must heed the warnings wrapped up in its election win. Young voters are crying out for action
I often write about how younger Australians are carving out a different political identity from older generations. But the election result has reminded us of what cuts across age and sits in our national core. That deep-seated Aussie reaction: 'yeah-nah, that's a bit much' when things go too far. We're allergic to imported bravado, anything too loud, too messianic. And, when pushed, we don't shout – we shrug. This election was one long shrug. A rejection of chaos and division, not through fury but through an assertive, ballot-powered recoil. I'll admit: I expected more of a fragmented youth vote. Labor couldn't count on all young people voting progressive. Young voters don't fit neatly into left or right. I've long argued that grouping 18-year-olds with 45-year-olds under a single 'youth vote' umbrella never made much sense. Yes, there are shared concerns – housing, inequality, job insecurity, climate change – but the fault lines of gender, geography and ethnicity are real. So I worried it wouldn't be all about numbers. Like many, I fussed about how young (male) voters might pull away from Labor and risk a hung parliament. Instead we saw a decisive vote for stability in the face of underwhelming national pitches and overwhelming global uncertainties. Young Australians aren't animated by performative politics. Their concerns are deeply material – rents, wages, the price of groceries, a system that no longer delivers. While some have speculated that Donald Trump has fuelled a gender divide among gen Z men, my analysis of the Australian Election Study (1996–2022) suggests something more nuanced. Yes, gen Z men are more conservative than gen Z women – but they're still more progressive than older generations of men. And, when it comes to actual vote choice, gender differences mostly disappear. It appears that this election is a nod to that finding. Trump has also proved to be political kryptonite for Australians, especially younger ones. A March 2025 study found that Australian voters between 18 and 44 overwhelmingly reject Trump-style leadership – with just 23% saying Australia would benefit from a leader like Trump and 58% saying absolutely not. But Labor should not take the wrong lesson from this result – that a win is a mandate to keep the status quo, which is clearly failing younger Australians. If Labor wants to keep their support, it needs to see the warnings wrapped up in the win. Voters – especially young ones – are crying out for action on the big structural problems: housing supply, intergenerational inequality, flatlining productivity. And Labor's blind spots are showing. A refusal to ban gambling ads, despite overwhelming public support. No meaningful move to lift people out of poverty, despite repeated advice from its own experts. Silence on the Uluru statement of the heart in the wake of the referendum defeat. No scrutiny of Aukus, even as Trump jeopardises our alliance. These aren't side issues for young Australians – they're central to the kind of future they're being asked to vote for. The election result should not be used as proof that young voters are some homogenous progressive bloc, or that they've thrown their weight behind a steady two-party system. The electorate is increasingly fluid, willing to swing whichever way the moment demands. Labor read the room better this time but it was the electoral environment – the campaign, the global chaos and the aversion to populism that shaped the result. The rise of the crossbench, the Greens' stable primary vote despite seat losses and movement in inner-city seats across Victoria and Queensland all signal that shift. Finally, we should remember and acknowledge the role compulsory voting plays in keeping young people tied to the system and having a say in the future they'll inherit. Just look at Brexit: when young people sit out, history happens to them. In Australia, they help write it. Dr Intifar Chowdhury is a youth researcher and a lecturer in government at Flinders University
