The climate won't change for the Liberals without more women and fewer oldies
If the Liberals have any sense, they won't waste too much time blaming their shocking election result on Peter Dutton, Donald Trump, Cyclone Alfred, the party secretariat, an unready shadow ministry or any other 'proximate cause', as economists say. Why not? Because none of these go to the heart of their party's problem.
The Liberals' problem is that Australia has changed but their party hasn't. They're like someone still driving a Holden Commodore: a great car in its day but looking pretty outdated today.
In other words, the Libs' problem is structural, not merely cyclical. It can't be fixed just by finding a more attractive leader – not unless that leader has the authority to make what many Liberal MPs and party members would regard as radical changes.
Liberal leaders have been aware of their party's two key problems for some years without facing up to them. The first is their 'women problem'. While Labor has put much effort into increasing the proportion of women among its parliamentary members and ministers, the Libs have been quite half-hearted about it, refusing to use quotas to speed up the process.
I'm sure Labor people have been sincere in believing a roughly 50-50 split should become the norm, but I'm equally sure they're aware of the political advantage that comes with making sure they attract the votes of at least half the female voters, and preferably more.
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Go back far enough and you find Australia's women slightly more attracted to the Coalition than Labor. Not these days. The Australian National University's Australian Election Study, which uses polling of people after they've voted – at the democracy sausage stage – found that, in the previous, 2022 federal election, while 38 per cent of male respondents voted for the Coalition, only 32 per cent of females did.
I'd be surprised if that disparity was much reduced on Saturday, and not surprised if it had increased. Surely a party incapable of attracting its share of the female half of the voting population is a party without a bright future.
Did you notice Monday's photo of Labor's just-elected federal members in Brisbane? Seven broadly smiling, youngish women. A lot of them who'd just taken seats from the Libs.
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