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ABC News
20 hours ago
- Politics
- ABC News
As parliament returns, Albanese is buoyed by Newspoll as Ley confronts depth of Coalition's defeat
When the federal parliament finally sits this week for the first time since the election, the full depth of the Liberal Party's electoral humiliation will be on visual display in the House of Representatives. Just six Liberal women will be in the lower house. Six. And because women usually wear more colour than their male colleagues, the scarce numbers will be hard to miss. There will be no ambiguity about the problem. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, on the other hand, is likely to be feeling confident as parliament returns with Newspoll delivering strong results for Labor and a second honeymoon narrative for the party. The Liberals will hope that the optics of having their first woman leader sitting opposite the prime minister at the dispatch box will neutralise just how shocking a number this is in 2025 — but one leader, reluctantly backed and still being quietly undermined by some of her colleagues, does not disappear an issue so deeply rooted. Ahead of the return to parliament, Sussan Ley has let television program 60 Minutes into her life to introduce herself to the nation. It says a lot about the country's engagement in politics that a woman who has been in the parliament since 2001 and has served in many frontbench roles from as far back as the Howard government era still has to introduce herself. Previous Liberal leader Peter Dutton also appeared on 60 Minutes, but his task was less about an introduction — his name was more well-known around the country — and more about softening his image, something it's fair to say he failed spectacularly to achieve. Ley doesn't need to soften her image. She needs to establish an image and identity of her own. Ley showed the 60 Minutes audience her impressive skills, including flying planes, and her beautiful grandchildren. It is a way of using what is a good personal story of female empowerment to signal that the Liberal Party under her leadership has changed. But it will take more than some soft media pieces to shift the deep perception of a party out of touch. All eyes this week will be on the first Question Time. Politics is as much a mind game as it is an ideas and strategy game between leaders. Ley and Albanese will be working out how to tackle each other across the dispatch box. They share one indisputable trait. Both have been underestimated their entire careers, and both talk about this as one of the elements of their success. The PM has consistently outperformed when his critics have suggested he isn't capable. Ley is much the same. She is using that doubt to power herself through. One of the most stinging and damaging criticisms of the Liberals under Peter Dutton was a penchant for saying no to Labor ideas. In fact, the Liberals became so addicted to saying no that they even said no to policies that fit squarely into their historical world view, including personal income tax cuts before the last election. This week will be the party's first parliamentary chance to show that they are done with that hyper-oppositional behaviour. On the two key pieces of legislation Labor will introduce this week — reducing HECS debts and tougher regulation of childcare in the wake of the abuse scandals — the Liberals have now indicated they are a yes. They have even walked away from the policy of slashing 80,000 international students from higher education institutions, with the opposition's education spokesperson yesterday promising a more "sensitive" approach. Dutton had claimed that cutting foreign student numbers would free up more housing and rental opportunities. He said students were "taking up accommodation that should be occupied by Australian citizens". The opposition's new education spokesperson, Jonathon Duniam, conceded the policy under Dutton wasn't "as constructive as it could have otherwise been". "Obviously, those numbers were part of a discussion that occurred before an election we lost," the new education spokesperson told Insiders. "I don't think that any university should, as some have, use international students as a cash cow. That's not appropriate because it's not a good business model, but we need to recognise that a large part of the funding, for especially regional universities, comes from international students. A more sensitive conversation needs to be had, Duniam said, and added the Liberal Party "will work with the sector and the government about that." Before the last election, Labor also vowed to crack down on this, saying it would reduce international student numbers to a maximum of 270,000 in 2025. The shadow education minister also said the Coalition had softened its position on other education policies, including past opposition to the Albanese government's plan to wipe 20 per cent off student HECS debts. Newly elected Labor members and senators will also begin delivering their first speeches to the House of Representatives and the Senate this week. First speeches in the House will be led by the member for Dickson, Ali France, and the member for Melbourne, Sarah Witty. It's not a mistake that they have been chosen to lead the many, many speeches that will be delivered. These two new MPs vanquished the political leader of the right, Dutton, and the left, Greens leader Adam Bandt. Their speeches will make the point that their communities voted for Labor because they wanted a government that wanted to get things done. And Labor will seek to highlight that its new caucus is composed of 56 per cent women. They will sing it from the rooftops all week, but the truth is they don't need to. It will be on full display in the chamber as the MPs take their positions on the green leather seats. The ABC has projected that the Liberals will win the most seats in the new Tasmanian state parliament, with the Labor Party seeing its worst vote in Tasmania ever. This is the fourth election the state has held in seven years, after a no-confidence vote tabled by Opposition Leader Dean Winter during his budget reply speech. I am a big fan of democracy, but I can see why Tasmanians may be fatigued by the never-ending elections they are forced to engage in. It's kind of staggering, really, and tells you everything you need to know about the volatility of politics that nearly 40 per cent of Tasmanians voted Liberal at the state election over the weekend. In the May federal election, the Liberal vote in Tasmania sat just below 25 per cent. It's a monumental difference. The Liberals see it as a sign that their brand is not entirely damaged, and perhaps that is part of the story. But it's not all of it. It's worth looking at how wild the swings were towards the Liberals and how that has changed the fortunes of Bridget Archer, who lost her federal seat during the obliteration of the party in Tasmania at the federal election. Archer contested the seat of Bass in this weekend's Tasmanian state election and has now managed to not only win, but she got 1.53 quotas on Saturday night. Archer may be a minister in the Tasmanian government. This was something that wasn't possible for her in the federal Liberals. The predicted Labor loss would be one of the great tactical miscalculations of recent Australian political history. There does remain an outside chance that Tasmania's Labor leader, Dean Winter, can form government with a large and mostly progressive crossbench. It is understood that Winter believed Premier Jeremy Rockcliff would step down after the no-confidence motion rather than call another election. Labor was again left unprepared at the state level to fight. But the swing to the Liberals does show that perhaps the anti-incumbents mood appears to be in decline off the back of elections in WA, the federal election, and now the Tasmanian election. All three have given the two major parties some hope that they may have arrested the decline. Patricia Karvelas is the host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly, and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.
The Guardian
a day ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
The Nationals' net zero bomb threatens to fracture the Liberals' decades-old alliance
A handful of moderate Liberal MPs decided that enough was enough. As the party debated whether to reunite the Coalition after a brief but damaging split with the Nationals in mid-May, the MPs drew a line in the sand. While the Nationals insisted on four demands for reunification – on nuclear power, supermarket break-up powers, regional communications and a $20bn infrastructure fund – for some Liberals, abandoning policies for net zero carbon emissions by 2050 would be a step too far. MPs who took part in a rush of party room debates in the tumultuous 48 hours point to the intervention of New South Wales moderate Dave Sharma, who insisted the Liberals could never be credible with mainstream voters if they abandoned such a fundamental element of climate policy. Others, including Zoe McKenzie, Maria Kovacic and Andrew Bragg, spoke privately and publicly in favour of holding firm. 'The view was we could not hide from serious climate policies and we could no longer be seen as accepting climate deniers,' one Liberal MP says, speaking anonymously about the closed-door talks. 'The Liberal party moved too far from its core values because we were dictated to by the Nationals. Peter Dutton let it happen and they're trying to do it again now on net zero.' But the agreement between the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, and his Liberal counterpart, Sussan Ley, to rejoin forces, cobbled together 48 hours after the split, did not settle the question of net zero – leaving it as one of the biggest questions facing the Coalition this term. In the final part of a series on the future of the Liberal party, Guardian Australia spoke with insiders about the latest conflict in the Coalition's climate wars, and how it threatens to permanently fracture the decades-old alliance. Opponents of net zero are not wasting any time. The Nationals have launched their own review, led by dogged climate critic Matt Canavan and the party strategist turned senator Ross Cadell. Outspoken former leader Barnaby Joyce has promised a private member's bill to end 'the lunatic crusade' of net zero when parliament returns this week. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email It was Joyce who initially signed the party up in the first place, negotiating with Scott Morrison's Liberals back in 2021 in exchange for an extra spot in cabinet. The Queensland Liberal-National MP Garth Hamilton calls net zero a 'blank cheque' for economic decline, while Andrew Hastie, considered a potential future Liberal leader, says he wants out of the 'straitjacket' plan. One close observer of the Nationals' dynamics says if a vote on net zero took place in Canberra this week, opposition to the policy would be locked in 13 votes to six. That result would be a mirror image of Canavan's leadership challenge to Littleproud in the days after the election, when he ran on an anti-net zero platform. Despite his two-to-one loss, Canavan claims the party's policy review as a win. He argues the Nationals were bullied into signing on five years ago on the basis that it had popular support in the polls. 'This would be the same polling that sent us shockingly astray in the recent election,' Canavan said in May. He did not respond to requests for comment for this story. Colleagues say Canavan shares anti-net zero content in a party chat on the messaging app Signal 'at all hours of the day and night'. There is widespread anger at the Nationals within senior ranks of the Coalition. Liberal MPs – reduced to a rump in metropolitan seats in part because Labor successfully tied them to Joyce and Canavan during successive campaigns – fear another round of the climate wars could kill the party. The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is scathing, calling the Coalition 'hopelessly divided' over something the rest of the world agrees on. 'These Coalition parties, the Liberals and Nationals, learned absolutely nothing on 3 May,' he says. In her first press conference as opposition leader, Ley was asked if she was abandoning her support for net zero. A former environment minister, she has previously talked up the economic opportunities of net zero and insisted she wanted to get there 'as quickly as possible'. As leader, she said the Coalition was committed to the renewables transition but stopped short of endorsing net zero, again. 'No policies have been adopted or walked away from at this time,' Ley said. After a historic thumping at the election, few in the Coalition were in good spirits as they trudged back to Canberra to start another term in opposition. After days of threats about breaking up the Coalition, the Nationals, led in part by the Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, pushed over the precipice. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion Bad blood lingered from the high-profile defection of the Country Liberal Northern Territory senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price from the Nationals to the Liberal party room, part of a plan for her to run for the deputy leadership under Angus Taylor. Senior Nationals always expected Price to one day switch to the Liberals and seek a lower house seat in pursuit of her ambition to eventually become prime minister. But the timing and the nature of the political betrayal incensed her former Nationals colleagues, sending them into what one Liberal describes as an 'emotional rage'. Senior Nationals were given roughly an hour's notice before Price issued a statement on the afternoon of 8 May confirming the move to her 'natural home', the Liberal party. Coalition colleagues quickly ascertained the plot had been in the works for weeks, engineered in part by the former prime minister Tony Abbott. Guardian Australia has been told the failed play damaged friendships between Price and McKenzie, who serve in the upper house together, as well as between McKenzie and frontbencher James Paterson. The Nationals have just four senators in the new parliament. Price is a favourite with the section of the Coalition closely tied to Sky News After Dark commentators on News Corp's network. Her high-profile role during the voice to parliament referendum and her no-apologies brand of rightwing politics lights up the Sky audience. One Nationals member says the network's hosts road test attack lines like a political party, sticking with two or three key messages that resonate with their loyal audience. But after two losses to Labor and the messy years of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government, some within the Coalition believe Sky is a habit Liberals and Nationals need to kick. Internally, it is viewed as an outlet to speak to other members of parliament and to practise speaking on broadcast TV. Former Abbott strategist Peta Credlin, the network's marquee presenter, has campaigned against net zero and urged the Coalition to move further to the right following one of its worst-ever election defeats. 'The venn diagram of Sky viewers and Nationals opposing net zero is a circle. It is the same people,' a Nationals insider says. The Nationals will thrash out their position on net zero in a meeting of MPs set for the middle of next month. Ley has ordered two reviews for the Liberals – one on the election loss and the other into the party's future, including branch structures and membership base. The election postmortem, led by party elders Pru Goward and Nick Minchin, could speak to the net zero problem, but two diametrically opposed policies from the Liberals and the Nationals will set up an inevitable clash before the next election. The former deputy prime minister Michael McCormack, who insists on speaking to journalists on the record, says the Nationals' original support for net zero came during China's campaign of economic coercion against Australia and amid significant anxiety among exporters. European trade deals required net zero policies to be in place. 'The world is in a very different place now,' McCormack says. 'America has made its view clear, and other countries are following suit. Opposition to renewables infrastructure in regional communities is real and you can't come to Canberra and argue against the views of your electorate.' Labor is watching closely. As it pushes ahead with the transition to renewable energy and talks up Australia's commitment to the Paris climate agreement, there is political opportunity in the Coalition's dysfunction. An observer who lived through the first two decades of Australia's climate wars says Anthony Albanese could be the ultimate winner from any move to ditch net zero. 'If he's smart, Albanese might choose to leave Barnaby's private members sitting on the notice paper so it stirs fights between the Liberals and the Nats for six months. Then he could, at a time of maximum political convenience, bring it on for debate,' they say. 'Joyce has handed Albo the timer to a bomb planted inside the Coalition party room.'
News.com.au
a day ago
- Politics
- News.com.au
Core support for the Coalition collapses to 40-year low: Newspoll
Core support for the Coalition has fallen to the lowest point in 40 years following Labor's blistering victory at the 2025 federal election. In the first Newspoll by The Australian since May's ballot, primary vote for the Coalition fell from 31.8 per cent at the election to just 29 per cent. Labor had meanwhile extended its two-party preferred lead, from 55.2 per cent at the election to 57 per cent, while the primary vote sat at 37 per cent. The result for the Liberal/Nationals coalition is worst primary vote since Newspoll first compared primary vote levels across the federal parties in November 1985. It also marks an 11-point decrease for the Coalition since its most recent peak of 40 per cent just eight months earlier. As for the Prime Minister, some 47 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with his performance – an equal number, 47 per cent, said they were not. For the new Opposition leader, Sussan Ley received approval ratings consistent with newly-elected opposition leaders, with 35 per cent. Ms Ley trailed behind Mr Albanese on preferred prime minister, with the Labor leader sitting at 52 per cent and Ms Ley at 32 per cent. She did, though, outpace her predecessor, Peter Dutton, who returned just 25 per cent of the preferred prime minister vote after his first outing as Liberal leader.
Perth Now
a day ago
- Politics
- Perth Now
Historic collapse in support for Aussie party
Core support for the Coalition has fallen to the lowest point in 40 years following Labor's blistering victory at the 2025 federal election. In the first Newspoll by The Australian since May's ballot, primary vote for the Coalition fell from 31.8 per cent at the election to just 29 per cent. Labor had meanwhile extended its two-party preferred lead, from 55.2 per cent at the election to 57 per cent, while the primary vote sat at 37 per cent. Core support for the Coalition has fallen to the lowest point in 40 years following Labor's election victory.. NewsWire / Nikki Short Credit: News Corp Australia The result for the Liberal/Nationals coalition is worst primary vote since Newspoll first compared primary vote levels across the federal parties in November 1985. It also marks an 11-point decrease for the Coalition since its most recent peak of 40 per cent just eight months earlier. As for the Prime Minister, some 47 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with his performance – an equal number, 47 per cent, said they were not. Peter Dutton returned just 25 per cent of the preferred prime minister vote after his first outing as Liberal leader.. Adam Head / NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia For the new Opposition leader, Sussan Ley received approval ratings consistent with newly-elected opposition leaders, with 35 per cent. Ms Ley trailed behind Mr Albanese on preferred prime minister, with the Labor leader sitting at 52 per cent and Ms Ley at 32 per cent. She did, though, outpace her predecessor, Peter Dutton, who returned just 25 per cent of the preferred prime minister vote after his first outing as Liberal leader.
The Guardian
2 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Federal opposition flags more ‘sensitive' approach to foreign students at Australian universities
The Coalition has walked away from its call for Australia to slash 80,000 international students from higher education institutions, with the opposition's education spokesperson promising a more 'sensitive' approach following the party's crushing election defeat in May. During the federal election campaign, then opposition leader Peter Dutton claimed cutting foreign student numbers would free up more housing and rental opportunities. Dutton said students were 'taking up accommodation that should be occupied by Australian citizens'. The approach was heavily criticised by the university sector and described by tertiary bodies as 'isolationist' and akin to the 'Donald Trump anti-migration card'. Jonathon Duniam on Sunday conceded the policy under Dutton wasn't 'as constructive as it could have otherwise been' as the Coalition continued to review its platform. 'Obviously, those numbers were part of a discussion that occurred before an election we lost,' the new education spokesperson told ABC TV. 'I don't think that any university should, as some have, use international students as a cash cow. That's not appropriate because it's not a good business model, but we need to recognise that a large part of the funding, for especially regional universities, comes from international students. 'So a more sensitive conversation needs to be had, and we will work with the sector and the government about that.' Labor also wants to reduce international student numbers, with a plan to drive down enrolments to a maximum of 270,000 in 2025. The shadow education minister on Sunday indicated the Coalition had softened its position on other education policies, including past opposition to the Albanese government's plan to wipe 20% off students' Hecs debts. Duniam said the Coalition accepted Australians 'had their say' at the election. 'We've got to move on,' he said on Sunday. The opposition's position on potential changes to the school system came under fire after Dutton pledged to 'restore' a curriculum focused on 'critical thinking, responsible citizenship and common sense' in his budget speech reply. While a clear policy or proposal was never announced or released, Dutton suggested students were being 'indoctrinated' at school and floated that federal funding to schools could be conditional on adherence to curriculum teaching rather than 'guided into some sort of an agenda that's come out of universities'. Duniam said his focus was on improving key metrics, such as maths, reading and science, rather than 'specific elements of the curriculum'. 'I think the rest of it will fall away if we're focusing on the priorities of getting kids out of schools with the best marks possible so they can go into university or higher education at the best standard possible and become the best graduates,' Duniam said. Sign up to Morning Mail Our Australian morning briefing breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion 'Then that will deal with all of the issues people have complaints around, including the 'woke' issues, as they're called.' A number of Coalition MPs and senators have remained vocal supporters of a push to ban transgender women from female sports, including Duniam's Senate colleague Claire Chandler. When asked whether it was an issue he shared with his colleagues, the senator said it deserved an 'adult debate' but that he did not believe it was up to him to decide how schools should facilitate arrangements. 'I honestly believe that girls' sports should be for girls, boys sports for boys. And if you have a mixed grouping, then that's something you can arrange by competition or in a school arrangement,' he said. 'I don't think it's for me to set down who should participate in what sport.' In late June, the shadow immigration minister, Paul Scarr, promised a new tone when talking about migrants as the Liberal party worked to rebuild support among multicultural communities. 'One of the things I am passionate about is getting the tone of discussion right – I think that is of critical importance,' Scarr told Guardian Australia. 'And any discussion of immigration must proceed, in my view, on the basis of the contribution that's been made to this country by so many people who have come to this country as migrants.'
