The 2026 senate map is tough for democrats, but republicans have their own headaches
Democrats are optimistic despite needing to gain four seats, as many of the 2026 contests are in states Trump won easily. They see hope in the Republicans' difficulties, such as a contentious primary in Texas and the absence of clear candidates in North Carolina and Georgia. Trump's potential endorsements add uncertainty as he considers intervening in intraparty battles.
Republicans insist it's still early and there's time for candidates to establish themselves and for Trump to get involved. Trump's political director, James Blair, is reportedly working closely with Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Trump's allies say he and his political team are focused on Republicans gaining seats in both the Senate and the House.
In Texas, a divisive primary could jeopardize a Republican-held seat, with concerns that Attorney General Ken Paxton—facing personal and ethical questions—could defeat Sen. John Cornyn. Republicans fear Paxton would be a weak general election candidate. Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super political action committee supporting Cornyn, has begun airing ads highlighting his support for Trump's tax cuts. Aaron Whitehead, the super PAC's executive director, said they would expose how Paxton has embarrassed the state. Trump adviser Chris LaCivita is advising the group. Cornyn has had a strained relationship with Trump, while Paxton is a longtime ally. Paxton raised more than three times as much as Cornyn in the second quarter: $2.9 million compared with $804,000. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also considering a run. It remains uncertain whether Trump will endorse or stay out of the race.
In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis's retirement has triggered a search for a replacement in a state seen as a top pickup opportunity for Democrats. All eyes are on Lara Trump, Trump's daughter-in-law, who is considering running. Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee during Trump's 2024 campaign and a Fox News Channel host, has strong ties to North Carolina. Other potential candidates include RNC chair Michael Whatley, Rep. Pat Harrigan, and Rep. Brad Knott. Democrats are awaiting a decision from former Gov. Roy Cooper, considered a formidable candidate. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel has entered the race but his future involvement is unclear if Cooper enters. Trump carried the state by just 3.2 percentage points last year.
In Georgia, Republicans view the seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff as a prime pickup opportunity but are still seeking a well-known challenger after failing to persuade Gov. Brian Kemp to run. Potential candidates include Rep. Buddy Carter, Rep. Mike Collins, Rep. Rich McCormick, Insurance Commissioner John King, and Derek Dooley. The president is meeting with possible candidates and is expected to wait before weighing in. Ossoff raised more than $10 million in the second quarter and ended June with more than $15.5 million cash on hand. The 2020 Senate races in Georgia cost more than $900 million combined.
In Michigan, Republicans hope the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and a crowded Democratic primary will help them win a seat they haven't held in over 30 years. Republicans are rallying around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who nearly won in 2024 and had Trump's endorsement. Rogers has the support of Thune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and Trump campaign veterans LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio. Rep. Bill Huizenga is waiting for guidance from Trump on whether to run, having spoken to Trump multiple times. White House officials have encouraged Huizenga to stay in the House. Democrats have a competitive primary with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, Rep. Haley Stevens, state Rep. Joe Tate, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Rogers's main campaign account raised just $745,000 during the second quarter, while McMorrow raised more than $2.1 million.
In Louisiana, Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces scrutiny for his 2021 vote to convict Trump after the president's second impeachment. It's uncertain whether Trump will seek retribution or ultimately back him. Cassidy faces two primary challengers. Louisiana is a reliably Republican state, which Trump won last year by 22 percentage points. Democrats hope former Gov. John Bel Edwards might mount a competitive challenge. Republicans are awaiting word on whether Rep. Julia Letlow will run. Gov. Jeff Landry and Trump discussed Letlow entering the race. Among Cassidy's Republican challengers are state Treasurer John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez. Letlow is considered a rising star in the Louisiana GOP.
In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst has not said whether she plans to seek a third term. Ernst would be expected to win in the state Trump carried by 13 percentage points last year. She has faced some criticism from Iowa Republicans. Ernst has named a 2026 campaign manager and has scheduled her annual Iowa fundraiser for October.
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