
Oil jumps 7%, US stocks fall on fears of wider Iran-Israel war
NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices leaped, and stocks slumped Friday on worries that escalating violence following Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets could damage the flow of crude around the world, along with the global economy.The S&P 500 sank 1.1% and wiped out what had been a modest gain for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 769 points, or 1.8%, and the Nasdaq composite lost 1.3%.advertisementThe strongest action was in the oil market, where the price of a barrel of benchmark US crude jumped 7.3% to $72.98. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 7% to $74.23 for a barrel.
Iran is one of the world's major producers of oil, though sanctions by Western countries have limited its sales. If a wider war erupts, it could slow the flow of Iran's oil to its customers and keep the price of crude and gasoline higher for everyone worldwide.Beyond the oil coming from Iran, analysts also pointed to the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a relatively narrow waterway off Iran's coast. Much of the world's oil that's been pulled from the ground moves through it on ships.Past attacks involving Iran and Israel have seen prices for oil spike initially, only to fall later 'once it became clear that the situation was not escalating and there was no impact on oil supply,' according to Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil at S&P Global Commodity Insights.advertisementThat has Wall Street waiting to see what will come next. US stock prices dropped to their lowest points for the day after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel.For now, the price of oil has jumped, but it's still lower than it was earlier this year. 'This is an economic shock that nobody really needs, but it is one that seems more like a shock to sentiment than to the fundamentals of the economy,' said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.That in turn sent US stocks to a loss that was notable in size but outside their top 15 for the year so far.Companies that use a lot of fuel as part of their business and need their customers feeling confident enough to travel fell to some of the sharpest losses. Cruise operator Carnival dropped 4.9%. United Airlines sank 4.4%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell 5%.They helped overshadow gains for US oil producers and other companies that could benefit from increased fighting between Israel and Iran.Exxon Mobil rose 2.2%, and ConocoPhillips gained 2.4% because the leaping price of crude portends bigger profits for them.Contractors that make weapons and defense equipment also rallied. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX all rose more than 3%.advertisementThe price of gold climbed as investors searched for safer places to park their cash. An ounce of gold added 1.4%.Often, prices for Treasury bonds will likewise rise when investors are feeling nervous. That's because U.S. government bonds have historically been seen as some of the safest options around. But Treasury prices fell Friday, which in turn pushed up their yields, in part because of worries that a spike in oil prices could drive inflation higher.Inflation has remained relatively tame recently, and it's near the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, but worries are high that it could be set to accelerate because of President Donald Trump's tariffs.That sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 4.41% from 4.36% late Thursday. Higher yields can tug down on prices for stocks and other investments, while making it more expensive for US companies and households to borrow money.A better-than-expected report Friday on sentiment among U.S. consumers also helped drive yields higher. The preliminary report from the University of Michigan said sentiment improved for the first time in six months after Trump put many of his tariffs on pause, while U.S. consumers' expectations for coming inflation eased.advertisementOn Wall Street, Adobe fell 5.3% even though the company behind Photoshop reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than Wall Street expected. Analysts called it a solid performance but said investors may have been looking for some bigger revenue forecasts for the upcoming year.Shares of Brazilian meat giant JBS fell 3.9% as they made their debut on the New York Stock Exchange. The company wants to increase access to its shares among global investors, despite criticism from environmental groups, U.S. lawmakers and others who noted JBS' record of corruption, monopolistic behavior and environmental destruction.All told, the S&P 500 fell 68.29 points to 5,976.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 769.83 to 42,197.79, and the Nasdaq composite sank 255.66 to 19,406.83.In stock markets abroad, indexes slumped across Europe and Asia. France's CAC 40 lost 1%, and Germany's DAX dropped 1.1% for two of the larger losses.Must Watch
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Mint
40 minutes ago
- Mint
Gold price outlook: Experts see MCX gold rate at ₹1.05 lakh if Israel-Iran war further escalates
Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) surged past the ₹ 1 lakh-mark on Friday, driven by robust safe-haven demand following a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Renewed conflict in the Middle East, expectations of interest rate cuts, and a risk-off sentiment across financial markets collectively contributed to the rally in the yellow metal. MCX gold rate settled 0.04% higher at ₹ 1,00,314 per 10 grams after touching an intraday high of ₹ 1,00,681. Meanwhile, MCX silver prices declined marginally by 0.02% to ₹ 1,06,474 per kg, after hitting a high of ₹ 1,06,940 during the session. In the international market, spot gold price surged 1.3% to $3,428.10 an ounce, inching closer to its all-time high of $3,500.05 set in April. For the week, prices gained approximately 4%. US gold futures also advanced 1.5% to settle at $3,452.80. 'The latest upswing has been fueled by renewed conflict in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, which have significantly increased global risk aversion, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset,' said Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet. She further noted that the US Dollar Index, which peaked at 110.18 in January, has since dropped to a three-year low, weighed down by disappointing economic indicators and policy uncertainty amid renewed tariff measures. 'The sharp decline in the dollar index has been a key catalyst driving gold higher. Additionally, easing inflation—with the US CPI cooling to 2.4% in May, below expectations—has raised prospects of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially as early as its June 18 meeting,' Sachdeva added. Markets are now increasingly pricing in a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut in 2025, lending further support to bullion prices. Gold has delivered stellar returns so far this year, rising 31% year-to-date (YTD) and consistently posting record highs. The metal has reaffirmed its position as one of 2025's top-performing asset classes and a reliable hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. From ₹ 7,638 in 2005 to over ₹ 1,00,000 in June 2025, MCX gold prices have soared by an impressive 1,200.84%. In comparison, silver has gained 668.84% over the same period. Notably, gold prices have rallied by ₹ 10,000 in just the past 74 days. The asset has delivered positive returns in 16 of the last 20 years, highlighting its resilience and investor appeal. 'This sustained rally is being driven by a confluence of global macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. These include heightened economic uncertainty, anticipated rate cuts by the US Fed, aggressive central bank gold purchases, and rising geopolitical tensions,' Sachdeva observed. With supportive macroeconomic drivers and strong momentum, the outlook for gold remains bullish in the near term. According to Sachdeva, if tensions in the Middle East escalate further, another wave of safe-haven buying could propel gold prices toward the $3,500 mark. 'A breakout above that level could drive prices even higher toward the $3,590 per ounce where prices are likely to witness some resistance. In the domestic market, MCX gold is potentially heading towards ₹ 1,05,000 per 10 grams, with near-term support seen at ₹ 96,200 level,' Sachdeva said. NS Ramaswamy, Head -Commodity Desk and CRM at Ventura Securities, expects COMEX gold price to create a fresh high of $3,540 in the short term, with resistance at $3,476, and support seen at $3,400 - $3,345 levels. 'MCX gold August futures presently has support at ₹ 98,900, and is poised to surge to ₹ 1,02,000 in the short term,' said Ramaswamy. Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast that structurally strong central bank buying will raise the gold price to $3,700 per ounce by end-2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. BofA sees a path for gold to rally to $4,000 per ounce over the next 12 months. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.


Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
West Asia Airspace Closure: Airlines Cancel Flights Amid Israeli-Iranian Tensions, ET Infra
Advt Airlines steered clear of much of West Asia on Friday after Israeli attacks on Iranian sites forced carriers to cancel or divert thousands of flights in the latest upheaval to travel in the Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport was closed and Israel's air defence units stood on high alert for possible retaliatory strikes from El Al Airlines said it had suspended flights to and from Israel as did Air France KLM and budget carriers Ryanair and Wizz. Wizz said it had re-routed flights affected by closed airspace in the region for the next 72 hours. Israeli airlines El Al, Israir and Arkia were moving planes out of the data showed airspace over Iran, Iraq and Jordan was empty, with flights directed towards Saudi Arabia and Egypt 1,800 flights to and from Europe had been affected so far on Friday, including approximately 650 cancelled flights, according to Russian and Ukrainian airspace closed due to war, the West Asia region has become an even more important for flights between Europe and Asia. The escalation of the conflict knocked shares in airlines around the world with British Airways owner IAG down 4% and Ryanair off 3.5%. A surge in oil prices after the attack also stirred concerns about jet fuel global airlines had already halted flights to and from Tel Aviv after a missile fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels towards Israel on May 4 landed near the Lufthansa said its flights to Tehran have been suspended and that it would avoid Iranian, Iraqi and Israeli airspace. Emirates also cancelled flights to and from Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iran while Qatar Airways axed flights to Iran, Iraq and Syria.
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Business Standard
2 hours ago
- Business Standard
Analysts see crude at $150 on panic buying if Israel-Iran tensions escalate
Brent crude oil prices can hit $150 a barrel (bbl) – up a massive 103 per cent from the current levels – in the worst-case scenario if Israel–Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts. However, if the conflict stays contained, then energy markets will re-adjust quickly. Israeli airstrikes on Iran last week had impacted energy prices with crude and natural gas prices surging as it reignited concerns about a wider conflict in West Asia. Brent crude oil prices hit $78.5/bbl in the wake of the airstrikes before dropping back to around $75/bbl. TTF (Title Transfer Facility) gas prices – a virtual trading point for natural gas in the Netherlands – surged over 5 per cent to €38.24/MWh last week in the backdrop of the developments. The attacks, according to analysts at Rabobank International, expose the wider risks to crude and natural gas supplies from the region despite the initial quick reversal of price gains for both markets. If crude, refined products and/or liquid natural gas (LNG) supplies from key producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are curtailed through direct attacks on energy infrastructure or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil price spikes could break and sustain above the $120/bbl mark, they said. 'In case Saudi oil, gas, shipping, or refining infrastructure are targeted and destroyed, crude prices would rise above $120/bbl, even as far as $150/bbl on the initial panic buying," wrote Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank International in a co-authored note with Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit. Crude oil price spike Iran, meanwhile, has claimed dominion over the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major chokepoint central to the global energy market. The Strait is a transit point for 17 per cent of world oil flows (about 17 million barrels per day) and convoys of tankers from Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Qatar, Oman and the UAE operate around 98 million tons of LNG export capacity, about 18 per cent of the world's LNG supply, with most of these volumes also transiting through the Strait, reports suggest. 'Another 10 per cent rise in oil is possible due to ongoing war. Post that, it may cool off if conflict moderates due to international pressures. In case war intensifies and goes on for few months, then oil price may hit $100/bbl,' said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research. The threat of around 1.5m barrels per day (b/d) of Russian supply going dark through sanctions during the initial stages of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia had sent Brent prices to $139/bbl three years ago, but only for about a week, and prices stayed above $100/bbl for only five months, data shows. According to Platts OPEC Survey, Iran pumped 3.25 million b/d of crude in May, with roughly 2.2 million b/d of refining capacity and 600,000 b/d of condensate splitting capacity. However, exports dipped below 1.5 million b/d in May as floating storage levels surged amid rising tensions. 'If Iranian crude exports are now disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels—would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes. This could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread, and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia,' cautions Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights.