South Africa Banks at Risk From Trade, War Shocks, SARB Says
The nation is vulnerable to spillover effects from trade-related tensions and international conflicts because of the limited extent to which it can mitigate them, the South African Reserve Bank said in its biannual Financial Stability Review.
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News24
5 hours ago
- News24
Africa's nuclear capacity could expand tenfold by 2050 — report
For now, South Africa remains the only African country generating nuclear power. But Africa's nuclear sector is poised for significant growth, with a new International Atomic Energy Agency report projecting generating capacity could increase tenfold by 2050. Despite having just one operational nuclear plant today, a new report projects that Africa's generating capacity could increase tenfold by 2050. The report, Outlook for Nuclear Energy in Africa by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was launched at the G20 Energy Transitions meeting in South Africa held between July 30 to August 1, 2025, at the Sun City resort in the North West. The report examines how nuclear power could help address the continent's electricity shortages, diversify its energy mix away from fossil fuels, and drive industrial growth. According to MaryAnne Osike from the Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA), 'Nuclear is not here to replace wind, solar, or hydro, it's here to strengthen them.' 'Its ability to provide constant, reliable baseload power means renewables can operate more effectively without being limited by weather or seasonal variations,' she shared in a call. 'When integrated into a diversified energy mix, nuclear offers long-term price stability, strengthens grid resilience, and reduces dependence on imported fuels. It's part of the same clean energy toolbox that Africa needs to achieve both climate goals and industrial growth,' she added. The IAEA outlook report also highlights the role of emerging technologies such as small modular reactors, outlines national programmes already underway, and stresses the need for supportive policies, regional cooperation, and innovative financing. According to Rafael Mariano Grossi, IAEA director-general, 'Access to reliable and low-carbon energy sources such as nuclear can enable Africa to further explore and add value to its vast natural resources.' The shift comes as African governments face the dual challenge of powering economies where more than 500 million people still lack electricity and replacing fossil fuels, which currently provide more than 70% of the continent's power. In the IAEA's high-growth scenario, nuclear capacity in Africa could more than triple by 2030 and expand tenfold by 2050, requiring more than US$100 billion in investment. Even in the low-growth case, output would double by 2030 and increase fivefold by mid-century. For now, South Africa remains the only African country generating nuclear power. Its two-unit Koeberg nuclear power station supplies nearly two gigawatts to the grid, and in 2024, Unit 1 received a 20-year life extension. But several other countries are moving from planning to implementation. Egypt is building the 4.8-gigawatt El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant, with its first unit expected online by 2028. Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya, Namibia and Nigeria have made firm decisions to adopt nuclear technology and are working with the IAEA to prepare infrastructure, establish regulatory bodies, and develop human capital. Kenya set up its Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing Organisation in 2012, has since established an independent regulator, and is targeting 2038 for its first reactor, with SMRs under review to match demand patterns. Ghana's Nuclear Power Ghana is in vendor talks for both a large nuclear plant and SMRs, while Nigeria has opened bids for a 4,000-megawatt facility and signed agreements with multiple suppliers. A large part of this momentum is driven by growing interest in small modular reactors (SMRs), which offer flexible power generation in smaller increments than traditional gigawatt-scale plants. 'Global interest in SMRs is increasing due to their ability to meet the need for flexible power generation for a wider range of users and applications,' according to Zizamele Mbambo, South Africa's deputy director-general for nuclear energy. SMRs are well suited to Africa's small or fragmented grids, require less upfront capital, and can be deployed more quickly. They also offer off-grid potential for industrial projects such as mining and desalination. The IAEA outlook notes that SMRs could even be integrated into existing coal power sites, reusing infrastructure while cutting emissions, a theme it plans to explore in a forthcoming coal-to-nuclear transition report for the G20. Africa already holds a significant advantage, being home to 14% of the world's uranium production. Namibia ranks as the world's third-largest producer, while Niger and South Africa are also in the top ten. In Namibia, the previously idled Langer Heinrich mine has been reopened, with production expected to resume in 2026, and new projects are due by 2028. Tanzania has confirmed large reserves, such as the US$1.2-billion Mkuju River plant in jointly with Russia, is on course for pilot production. This resource base could bolster both export earnings and domestic energy security if countries invest in fuel cycle capabilities to convert raw uranium into reactor-ready fuel. However, according to experts like Osike, the pace at which Africa's nuclear ambitions materialise will hinge on financing, given the sector's high upfront costs and decades-long project lifecycles. 'Nuclear projects demand substantial upfront investment and a commitment that spans decades… Without innovative financing models and strong partnerships, many African countries will struggle to move from ambition to reality.' In June 2025, the IAEA and the World Bank signed an agreement, the Bank's first formal engagement with nuclear energy in decades. This opens the door for World Bank support in extending reactor lifespans, upgrading grids, and accelerating SMR deployment, while signalling to other multilateral lenders, including the African Development Bank, that nuclear is part of the clean energy transition toolkit. Vendor financing is also in play. Egypt's El Dabaa project, for example, is backed by large concessional loans from Russia with low interest rates and extended repayment terms. However, many African nations face low credit ratings and high debt-to-GDP ratios, so new financing models, from regional SMR purchase agreements to blended public-private investment, will be key. 'Developing a nuclear programme requires a century-long commitment, from construction through decommissioning and waste management,' Osike shared. 'Stable national policy, public support, and regulatory readiness are therefore essential,' she added. The IAEA's Milestones Approach identifies 19 infrastructure issues that must be addressed before construction begins. Continental and regional integration could further accelerate nuclear rollout. The Africa Single Electricity Market, launched by the African Union, aims to link national grids into the world's largest single electricity market. This could allow countries to share nuclear output, stabilise grids, and make large-scale investments viable. Shared infrastructure, training, and regulatory capacity could mirror the cooperative models already used in hydropower projects. *
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Yahoo
The Fed is expected to cut rates. Don't expect mortgage rates to follow.
A funny thing happened when the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates last fall: Mortgage rates actually rose. Now, the central bank is gearing up to cut benchmark interest rates again, and there's a chance something similar could happen once more. The reason? Today's mortgage rates already reflect expectations about the Fed's next move: This week, they hit 6.58%, the lowest level since October 2024. Shop Top Mortgage Rates Personalized rates in minutes A quicker path to financial freedom Your Path to Homeownership A number of economic data releases between now and the Sept. 16-17 meeting could lead to rate swings in the coming weeks. The relationship between the Fed's rate cuts and mortgage rates isn't direct, and mortgage rates are sensitive to a number of other factors, most notably bond yields. Read more: How does the Fed rate decision affect mortgage rates? For mortgage industry professionals, moments like this can be a frustrating time to be in business. Mortgage rates stayed stuck in the high 6% area for most of this year, stymying affordability-stretched buyers and keeping refinancing action limited. Now that rates are finally moving lower, they're fielding more calls from prospective clients. But many customers say they want to wait until September to move forward, in hopes that rates will drop further. 'Oh my gosh, it's my least favorite thing to hear,' said Taylor Sherman, a mortgage loan originator at Barrett Financial Group in Tucson, Ariz. 'I'm like, 'Well, you know, that's already priced in.' Yes, Fed policy determines rates, but it's really about how the market views Fed policy.' When the Fed cuts interest rates, rates on debt tied to the prime rate, like home equity lines of credit and credit cards, typically drop soon after. But the rates on standard 30-year fixed mortgages aren't linked to prime, and often don't react much. Sometimes, like last year, mortgage rates even move higher. Mortgage rates are influenced primarily by 10-year Treasury yields, which move in response to a range of factors like market expectations about inflation, future government borrowing, and what the Fed is doing. Mortgage spreads — the difference between the 10-year yield and prevailing mortgage rates — also play an important role in rates and vary based on other factors like market volatility and demand for mortgage bonds. Read more: What is the 10-year Treasury note, and how does it affect your finances? According to CME FedWatch, traders currently see an 85% chance of a rate cut in September. Those odds are essentially baked into today's mortgage rates, but rates could still oscillate between now and then for a number of reasons. Before the Fed acts, new economic data on August hiring and producer and consumer inflation will be released. Earlier this month, weak jobs data in particular helped push mortgage rates to their current year-to-date lows. Right now, a buyer with $3,000 a month to spend on their home has around $20,000 more in purchasing power than they did in May, when mortgage rates hit their recent peak of just over 7%, according to Redfin. The brokerage's head of economics research, Chen Zhao, said in a statement that homebuyers waiting on the Fed before starting their search might be too late, especially as interest rate volatility is expected to kick up in the coming weeks as new data comes out. Read more: Will mortgage rates ever be 3% again? Bogdan Toderut, a loan officer with Summit Funding in Cumming, Ga., is monitoring inflation and hiring data as he tries to figure out where mortgage rates go from here. 'A lot of times, the market prices in expectations,' Toderut said. 'When you see the big changes, you see them when expectations weren't met.' Although he thinks some of his investor clients might be better off trying to time the market, he advises most buyers to consider overall affordability and their monthly payments over the minutiae of small rate moves. Sign up for the Mind Your Money weekly newsletter By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy After all, mortgage rates can change quickly and unpredictably. When rates hit 6.2% last September, Arkansas-based loan officer Amber Moser prepared refinancing quotes for several dozen clients. None of those deals went forward because the homeowners were holding out for lower rates that never came. Ultimately, they missed out on savings that could have amounted to $300 or $400 a month. Moser, who works for Gershman Mortgage, said she makes a point to educate prospective clients on how mortgage rates are market-driven and move before milestones like Fed cuts. But she, too, warns them that rates are ultimately unpredictable. 'There's no crystal ball, and we have no idea what's going to happen,' Moser said. 'The best bet is, don't try to time the market.' Claire Boston is a Senior Reporter for Yahoo Finance covering housing, mortgages, and home insurance. Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Yahoo
ECB's Rebel Voice Bows Out With Plea for Greater Transparency
(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank's most rebellious interest rate-setter has one last suggestion before he departs this month: more transparency on policy decisions. Arch hawk Robert Holzmann, who's been comfortable delivering a lone 'no' vote on occasions during the ECB's monetary-easing push, wants outsiders to glean more of an understanding of officials' thinking as they calibrate borrowing costs. The US-Canadian Road Safety Gap Is Getting Wider Festivals and Parades Are Canceled Amid US Immigration Anxiety A Photographer's Pipe Dream: Capturing New York's Vast Water System To Head Off Severe Storm Surges, Nova Scotia Invests in 'Living Shorelines' Five Years After Black Lives Matter, Brussels' Colonial Statues Remain He'd like to see a version of the Federal Reserve's dot plot, under which policymakers anonymously provide their projections for rates. Alternatively, views diverging from the narrative presented by President Christine Lagarde could be summarized and released. 'When we start out, unanimity is a strong signal,' Holzmann said in an interview before he cedes control of Austrian's central bank to former Economy Minister Martin Kocher. 'But if the situation is not as clear in what direction you need to move because there are arguments in all directions, then I think deviations have information for the market.' The parting advice caps a six-year stint for Holzmann at the ECB, where the 76-year-old was among the staunchest supporters of the unprecedented ramp-up in rates unleashed to tame the euro zone's sharpest-ever spike in prices. With inflation returning toward the 2% target, Holzmann didn't back a June reduction that brought borrowing costs to the same level. He's also questioned other moves during the cutting campaign. But while Lagarde singled him out at a press conference this year for failing to fall in line with the rest of the 26-member Governing Council, Holzmann says he's never had any conflict with the ECB chief and speaks highly of her work. His plea to boost transparency came at a farewell dinner last month in Frankfurt, when asked by Lagarde for his thoughts on how the ECB could operate more effectively. The idea will probably remain just that, however, as a yearlong strategy review wrapped up only recently. 'Some people have fewer problems with being dissenters than others,' Holzmann said. 'But then there have been elements where I thought deviation starts to be needed.' Some in Vienna saw such defiance as a reputational risk for Austria — a country known for decades of consensual multi-party government that often keeps political intrigue and haggling behind closed doors. Any quibbling by other hawks, who include Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, hasn't been reflected in their votes. In Austria, few questioned Holzmann's inflation-wary approach, which helped make him one of the most accurate predictors of central-bank policy as a surge in energy prices prompted the ECB to raise rates by 450 basis points in little more than a year. His successor hasn't discussed monetary policy publicly, but takes over an institution with a long-standing tradition of being more cautious on inflation than others. Unlike Holzmann, who arrived after a career almost exclusively in academic research, Kocher — a behavioral economist — comes fresh from a spell navigating messy coalition politics. Amid a major personnel shakeup at the ECB this year, Holzmann declined to say who may replace him at the far end of the hawkish spectrum. 'With seven new people coming in, I could imagine that at least one or two of those could take over,' he said. 'Definitely from the informal discussions, I know that a number of people often sided with me on substance, but not on the decision.' What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Americans Are Getting Priced Out of Homeownership at Record Rates Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump's Economic Plan How Syrian Immigrants Are Boosting Germany's Economy Twitter's Ex-CEO Is Moving Past His Elon Musk Drama and Starting an AI Company ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
