
New Zealand spy service warns of China interference
New Zealand's spy service warned Thursday that China is the most active power engaging in foreign interference in the country, including through front organizations.
New Zealand faces the "most challenging national security environment of recent times", the country's intelligence agency said in an annual risk assessment.
Key drivers of the deteriorating threat environment were less stable relationships between states, deepening polarization and growing grievances.
Though several states seek to manipulate New Zealand's government and society, China remains the "most active", the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service said.
The spy agency specifically accused China's United Front Work Department of engaging in foreign interference to build influence outside of China.
Not all of its activity amounted to foreign interference, and some could be beneficial, it said. "However, its activities are regularly deceptive, coercive and corruptive and come with risks for New Zealand organizations."
The agency cautioned New Zealand businesses that under China's national security legislation, individuals and organizations in China must comply with requests from the country's security services.
The Indo-Pacific region is a focal point for strategic competition between powers, the security service said.
China is a "particularly assertive and powerful actor", seeking to extend and embed its influence across the region, the report said.
"It has demonstrated both a willingness and capability to undertake intelligence activity that targets New Zealand's national interests."
Without naming countries, the intelligence service highlighted the routine use of "transnational repression" by foreign states, often by co-opting people to collect information about someone within their own diaspora living in New Zealand.
Looking at other risks, the agency said the most plausible extremist threat in New Zealand remained that of a lone actor, radicalized in an increasingly polarized, grievance-laden online world, who attacks without forewarning.
Young and vulnerable people were at the highest risk of radicalization, it said.
"Increasing levels of polarization and grievance are driving support for violent extremist ideologies and foreign states are more willing to target New Zealand organizations and communities in order to achieve their aims," director-general of security Andrew Hampton said. "These threats are worthy of greater attention."
It is "almost certain" some foreign espionage activity is going undetected, the service said, reporting the targeting of critical organizations, infrastructure and technology -- mostly through cyber exploitation.
"It is not just intelligence officers conducting this activity," the agency said.
"Some governments take a 'whole of state approach' to intelligence gathering, which includes utilizing businesses, universities, think tanks, or cyber actors to act on their behalf."
Global competition and insecurity drive most of the espionage activity against New Zealand, it said.
The service cited "multiple examples" of states seeking covert access to information on government policy positions, security partnerships, technological innovations and research.
© 2025 AFP
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New Zealand spy service warns of China interference
Inteligence services in New Zealand say China is seeking to influence the country's government and society New Zealand's spy service warned Thursday that China is the most active power engaging in foreign interference in the country, including through front organizations. New Zealand faces the "most challenging national security environment of recent times", the country's intelligence agency said in an annual risk assessment. Key drivers of the deteriorating threat environment were less stable relationships between states, deepening polarization and growing grievances. Though several states seek to manipulate New Zealand's government and society, China remains the "most active", the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service said. The spy agency specifically accused China's United Front Work Department of engaging in foreign interference to build influence outside of China. Not all of its activity amounted to foreign interference, and some could be beneficial, it said. "However, its activities are regularly deceptive, coercive and corruptive and come with risks for New Zealand organizations." The agency cautioned New Zealand businesses that under China's national security legislation, individuals and organizations in China must comply with requests from the country's security services. The Indo-Pacific region is a focal point for strategic competition between powers, the security service said. China is a "particularly assertive and powerful actor", seeking to extend and embed its influence across the region, the report said. "It has demonstrated both a willingness and capability to undertake intelligence activity that targets New Zealand's national interests." Without naming countries, the intelligence service highlighted the routine use of "transnational repression" by foreign states, often by co-opting people to collect information about someone within their own diaspora living in New Zealand. Looking at other risks, the agency said the most plausible extremist threat in New Zealand remained that of a lone actor, radicalized in an increasingly polarized, grievance-laden online world, who attacks without forewarning. Young and vulnerable people were at the highest risk of radicalization, it said. "Increasing levels of polarization and grievance are driving support for violent extremist ideologies and foreign states are more willing to target New Zealand organizations and communities in order to achieve their aims," director-general of security Andrew Hampton said. "These threats are worthy of greater attention." It is "almost certain" some foreign espionage activity is going undetected, the service said, reporting the targeting of critical organizations, infrastructure and technology -- mostly through cyber exploitation. "It is not just intelligence officers conducting this activity," the agency said. "Some governments take a 'whole of state approach' to intelligence gathering, which includes utilizing businesses, universities, think tanks, or cyber actors to act on their behalf." Global competition and insecurity drive most of the espionage activity against New Zealand, it said. The service cited "multiple examples" of states seeking covert access to information on government policy positions, security partnerships, technological innovations and research. © 2025 AFP

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And in a time of global competition between the U.S. and China, the IP-CEPA shows that countries in the Global South are crafting their own pragmatic path. Just days after reciprocal tariffs took effect on global imports entering the United States, a new trade agreement between two major Asia-Pacific economies – Peru and Indonesia – quietly came into force. Both countries, despite having a free trade agreement with the U.S. (Peru), and having negotiated with the Trump administration on their terms (Indonesia), received a 10 percent and 19 percent tariff, respectively. Against this backdrop, the signing of the Indonesia-Peru Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IP-CEPA) on August 11 is more than a diplomatic milestone – it is the opening of a strategic route that, if properly leveraged, could accentuate the deepening trade integration of the Global South, in stark contrast to the protectionist shift in the West. In many ways, the IP-CEPA is a representative case of the burgeoning South-South cooperation. Indonesia and Peru aren't united by culture, language, or tribe, but by the motivation to escape the middle-income trap at the behest of free trade and raise the living standards for their citizens. And in a time of global competition between the U.S. and China, the IP-CEPA shows that countries in the Global South are crafting their own pragmatic path, multialigned, and unencumbered by the geopolitical agendas of the legacy major powers. While Indonesia and Peru are in many ways dissimilar countries, they share economic traits that make them natural partners: they are leaders in biodiversity, possess abundant mineral resources, and aspire to position themselves as engines of trade and investment in the Pacific. The agreement, which still needs to be ratified by both countries, sets out a gradual tariff reduction schedule – some cuts will take effect immediately, while others will be phased in over up to a decade. This nuance is key: this is not an overnight, across-the-board liberalization, but rather a platform that allows time to prepare, invest, and build solid trade relationships. In the short term, more than half of Peru's exports to Indonesia – from blueberries and avocados to cocoa and coffee – will have zero tariffs, while other products, including certain processed minerals, will gain preferences over agreed timelines. On the Indonesian side, more than 90 percent of its exports to Peru will also benefit from tariff reductions, with a phased approach that will allow Peruvian industries to adapt to the new competition. The logic of IP-CEPA is as geographical as it is economic. For Indonesia, access to Peru means not just entry into a new market of 33 million people, but also the opportunity to use it as a springboard to Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and the rest of South America. For Peru, Indonesia is the gateway to ASEAN – a bloc of over 650 million consumers – and to a domestic Indonesian market that is currently growing strongly, fueled by a middle class with increasingly sophisticated consumption habits. This corridor is not an isolated trade route, but a link between two regional platforms with significant weight. Logistically, new international trade infrastructure developments such as the new Port of Chancay in Peru – promoted and operated by China's COSCO Shipping – can play a key role, reducing connection times and costs with Asia and reinforcing the viability of this new trans-Pacific axis. At this juncture, certain sectors are particularly well positioned. In Peruvian agriculture, beyond blueberries, avocados, and grapes, products such as mangoes, pomegranates, quinoa, and chia have promising prospects thanks to Indonesian interest in functional and healthy foods. On the industrial side, certain processed copper and zinc products, as well as chemicals and fertilizers, could integrate into Indonesian manufacturing chains tied to electronics, automotive, and construction. On the other side, the Peruvian market will progressively receive Indonesian vehicle parts and spares, motorcycles, footwear, and textiles, as well as products like certified palm oil, paper, light machinery, and household appliances – all of which could lower costs for local companies that use these inputs. In a context of imported inflation and rising global logistics costs, diversifying suppliers can be as strategic as diversifying export markets. What makes the Indonesia–Peru trade agreement such a telling symbol of Global South–South cooperation is not just the geography it bridges, but the spirit in which it was forged. First and foremost, it signifies that South-South goes beyond China-South. And it is notably not a lofty, values-laden pact meant to make headlines in global summits – it is a pragmatic, transactional arrangement rooted in mutual benefit. Indonesia and Peru are connecting not out of shared language or cultural heritage, but because both see in the other a concrete path to expand markets, attract investment, and diversify supply chains. In many ways, this is the future of trade: Boston Consulting Group projects South-South to expand 3.8 percent annually through 2033, compared with 2.2 percent growth for North-North trade. Economies in the Global South account for more than 60 percent of the world's population and are poised to grow faster than their developed counterparts, driven by younger demographic, abundant resources, and rapidly expanding consumer classes. By choosing to engage directly with one another, Indonesia and Peru are doing what the Global South increasingly does best: pursuing growth on its own terms, without waiting for a green light from legacy powers. That independence is no small feat in today's geopolitical climate. Like many emerging economies, Indonesia and Peru must constantly navigate a delicate balance between the United States and China, each offering a mix of opportunity and constraint. The risks of leaning too far toward either pole are high; the rewards of diversifying are higher still. That is why turning toward each other – and toward other emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific and beyond – is more than just smart hedging. It is a deliberate bet on the fastest-growing part of the global economy, a way to reduce exposure to great-power tensions while tapping into new consumer bases and production networks. The world should look closely as a sign of times to come.