Morning Bid: Data deluge rounds up turbulent April

Reuters

30-04-2025

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee
Note: There will be no Morning Bid Europe on Thursday, May 1, due to holidays in various markets. The newsletter will resume on Friday, May 2.
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There will be a raft of data for investors to pore over on Wednesday as they wind down a rollercoaster month headlined by a tumultuous trade policy in the United States that bruised markets and dealt a blow on businesses and consumers globally.
First up in Europe, preliminary readings on French and German inflation are due, alongside growth data for the two economies and the wider euro zone bloc. The UK also releases figures for home prices.
It remains to be seen if the releases will support the case for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), but for now markets are leaning toward another round of easing in June.
Two ECB policymakers warned earlier this week that a trade war with the United States could extinguish the euro zone's fledgling recovery and the bloc could struggle under tariffs.
U.S. GDP data and the core PCE price index then take the stage, where expectations are for the world's largest economy to have grown a meagre 0.3% in the first quarter.
As it is, data on Tuesday showed the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March as businesses ramped up efforts to bring in merchandise ahead of the sweeping tariffs, suggesting trade was a large drag on growth.
It's a lot for investors to digest at the end of the month, having already been taken on a wild ride following U.S. President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office. But chaos seems to be the new normal these days.
There was little to cheer about in markets on Thursday, as relief over a potential easing of global trade tensions was offset by a worsening economic outlook and dour signals from corporates swept up by Trump's tariffs.
Despite Trump's move to soften the blow of his auto tariffs and signs of progress in broader trade negotiations, details remain scant, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying he had reached one deal with a foreign power.
Delivery giant UPS (UPS.N), opens new tab said on Tuesday it would cut 20,000 jobs to lower costs, while General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab pulled its outlook and delayed its investor call, joining a list of companies that have ditched forecasts for 2025 or slashed outlooks.
Shares struggled for direction and U.S. futures slid, while the dollar was on track for its worst monthly performance in more than two years.
While a fire sale of U.S. assets that gathered steam earlier this month seems to have abated for now, confidence remains fragile and the recent slew of economic data has given investors little reason for them to return.
U.S. consumer confidence slumped to a nearly five-year low in April and job openings dropped sharply in March, in signs that cracks in the economy are starting to show.
Amid persistent Sino-U.S. trade tensions, the world's second-largest economy is starting to feel the heat too.
China's factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April, a survey showed on Wednesday, as Trump's hefty tariffs snapped two months of recovery.
Still, Beijing is betting on Washington blinking first in a protracted trade war, as officials advance this year's stimulus plans but hold off on fresh measures.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
- French, German preliminary inflation (April)
- Euro zone, France, Germany preliminary GDP (Q1)
- UK nationwide house prices (April)
- U.S. advance GDP (Q1)
- U.S. core PCE price index (March)
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