2025 college football predictions: Fade Texas and Ohio State for national championship

New York Post

4 days ago

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The preseason rankings for the 2025 College Football season will be released in a matter of days, but by now, we have a fairly good idea of how they will look.
Either Ohio State or Texas will be ranked as the No. 1 team in the country, with the other slotting behind at No. 2.
Renowned college football insider Phil Steele believes that Ohio State will be No. 1 and Texas will be No. 2, while ESPN's Bill Connelly believes the opposite will be true.
The bookmakers are also split, with some shops tagging the defending champion Buckeyes as the favorite, while others have placed Texas at the top of the board.
No matter how the voting unfolds, rest assured that we will see No. 1 vs. No. 2 when the Longhorns and Buckeyes meet at Ohio Stadium in Week 1.
The line for that game, which kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on Aug. 30, currently stands at Ohio State -2.5, which further cements the notion that the bookies are having an impossible time separating these two teams.
On talent alone, you'd be hard pressed to find two stronger rosters in the country than Ohio State and Texas, which is why they're shoo-ins to be ranked first and second, in some order, in the AP's Preseason Top 25.
Logically, that would tell you that these two teams should be priced as the favorites to win the National Championship, but those rankings are not necessarily correlated to the betting market.
3 Arch Manning is among the Heisman favorites.
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The Top 25 is supposed to answer the question: 'Who is the best team in the country right now?'
The futures market asks a different query: 'Which team has the best chance of winning the National Championship?'
I'd argue that neither of these two teams should be considered the top choice for the latter.
It may seem unfair to question Ohio State's status as the team to beat after Ryan Day's Buckeyes won the College Football Playoff by beating Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame, but there are some big questions to answer in Columbus.
3 Jeremiah Smith leads the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2025.
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Not only do the Buckeyes rank 101st overall in returning production, but they'll be breaking in a new quarterback in 2025.
Either Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will get tapped to lead the way, and whoever does earn the gig will be working with Heisman candidate Jeremiah Smith, but there will be heaps of pressure on Sayin or Kienholz, and they'll be given a baptism by fire against Texas in Week 1.
The Buckeyes will also have a new look on the sidelines with two new coordinators, Brian Hartline on offense and Matt Patricia on defense, which could lead to some growing pains.
3 Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is one of the favorites to win the Heisman.
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Betting on College Football?
As for Texas, the question that needs answering is obvious.
The Longhorns have the Heisman favorite, Arch Manning, set to take over at quarterback, but he's only attempted 95 passes in his college career. He may be one of the most hyped players in recent college football history, but that doesn't guarantee he'll meet the expectations laid out in front of him.
And one thing Manning won't have is a safety net of an elite receiving corps like they have at Ohio State.
The 21-year-old Manning will be asked to win games on his own, which is a lot to ask of any player in the SEC, which is as good as any conference has ever been in the history of college football.
The Longhorns are asking Manning to be one of the best players in college football, but what if he's great instead of elite?
That would severely limit Texas' upside in 2025.
There was no way that Ohio State and Texas weren't going to top the betting board going into Week 1. One is the defending champion, and the other is a powerhouse led by the most hyped Heisman candidate in years.
Texas and Ohio State may be the two best teams in the country, but considering the questions they have to answer, their schedules, and the quality of their conferences, I believe they're both terrible bets to win the National Championship at their current prices.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.