April jobs report expected to show hiring slowed amid tariff uncertainty

Yahoo

01-05-2025

The April jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed to start the second quarter while unemployment held flat. Investors are closely watching the monthly release, the first since President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement on April 2, for signs of cooling in the labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics data is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payroll to have risen by 135,000 in April while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2%.
Here are the numbers Wall Street is expecting Friday, according to data from Bloomberg:
Nonfarm payroll: +125,000 vs. +228,000 in March
Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs. 4.2%
Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.3%
Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.9% vs. +3.8%
Average weekly hours worked: 34.2 vs. 34.2
The release comes as impacts from Trump's tariffs have begun to show up in economic data. On Wednesday, a new release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed economic growth contracted for the first time in three years during the first quarter. A surge in imports ahead of the levies weighed on growth in the quarter. Tariffs have also negatively impacted activity in the manufacturing sector and weighed on various consumer sentiment surveys.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs
But thus far, the effects haven't fully spilled over into labor market data. Economists expect that trend to largely continue with the April jobs report.
"Similar to March, solid April data may feel stale as it reflects labor market conditions during the first two weeks of the month, likely too soon to reflect employment decisions made after the April 2 tariff announcement," Citi economist Veronica Clark wrote in a note previewing the release.
Recent data, however, has shown some signs of cooling in the labor market. On Thursday, data from the Department of Labor revealed weekly claims for unemployment benefits hit their highest level in two months during the final full week of April while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021.
The release followed a weaker-than-expected reading of private payroll additions for April on Wednesday and data out Tuesday showing job openings at the end of March hovered near their lowest level since December 2020.
"Unease is the word of the day," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in the April private payroll release. "Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment."
Entering Friday's report, markets are pricing in a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts at its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.