U.S. Risks $7 Billion Economic Hit As International Students Fall

Forbes

3 days ago

The U.S. could lose as much as $7 billion in local economic activity this fall due to a steep fall in international student enrollments, according to a new analysis by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International. In recent months, actions by the Trump administration have discouraged international students from pursuing study in the U.S., including heightened scrutiny of social media accounts, the implementation of travel bans and shifting visa policies.
Data from the Department of Homeland Security's SEVIS system and the State Department point to a 30-40% fall in new international students, which could culminate in a 15% overall decline in international students for fall 2025. This shortfall could translate to more than 60,000 U.S. job losses, according to the report.
'This analysis, the first to calculate the potential economic impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country, should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on U.S. campuses this fall,' said Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, in a press release.
According to the NAFSA study, there are four main reasons why international students will decline in this manner:
Unless student visa issuance rebounds quickly this summer, U.S. universities may have 150,000 fewer international students on their campuses this fall semester, according to the study.
Colleges and universities have been preparing for a decline from the recent high of 1.12 million international students in this country—a number that includes both enrolled students and those on Optional Practical Training (OPT), the post-study work program.
The Institute of International Education found that 40% of institutions expect a decline in international undergraduates, while 49% anticipate a drop in graduate student enrollment. Similarly, a NAFSA survey of around 150 member institutions showed that 78% expect declines in both undergraduate and graduate international student enrollment.
According to calculations published by The Financial Times, a 10% drop in international student enrollment could cost U.S. colleges and universities $3 billion in revenue. Nearly a third of that—about $900 million—would come from lost tuition revenue.
There have been Indian media reports of a potential 70% decline in Indian student enrollments at U.S. universities. In May, data from Studyportals, a global education search platform, indicated student interest in U.S. study was at its lowest point since pandemic, with more students considering alternatives like the U.K. and Australia.