Breaking with the U.S.

Politico

20-02-2025

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→ COMING TODAY: Donald Trump's unprecedented effort to reshape the U.S. federal government is consuming Washington, and the reverberations are being felt in power centers around the world. POLITICO will be your guide to all the key decisions and characters with a fresh version of one of our signature newsletters: West Wing Playbook: Remaking Government. Sign up here to get it straight to your inbox.
Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.
In today's edition:
→ A war of words, a sea change in global policy.
→ Toronto to Quebec City at 300 km/h.
→ The unintended consequences of the global border closures.
THE FIRST THING
THREE YEARS ON — As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year on Monday, JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be weeks away from post-prime ministerial life. As DONALD TRUMP abandons the Ukrainian war effort, Trudeau and European leaders are working to salvage allied support for the Ukrainians.
'The thing about a war is it forces people to pick a side,' POLITICO's TIM ROSS and JACOPO BARIGAZZI write from London. 'And Donald Trump, it seems to many in Europe, is siding with VLADIMIR PUTIN.'
DRIVING THE DAY
WAR OF WORDS — The PM was asked by a reporter in Montreal on Wednesday whether Trump's comments blaming Ukraine for the war were 'damaging.'
Trudeau said he was standing with 'the vast majority of our allies' — not with Trump, though he did not single him out by name.
'Ukrainians have been fighting and dying not just to protect their sovereignty, their territorial integrity, they are also fighting to protect the rules-based order that keeps us all safe around the world, and has for close to 80 years now,' Trudeau said.
→ Breaking with Trump: Russia's invasion poses a risk to 'all of our democracies,' he said.'That is why Canada and our allies are unequivocal on standing up against VLADIMIR PUTIN's illegal, immoral, unjust, violations of the international order.'
— About 90 minutes later: Trump took to Truth Social to dismiss Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. He wrote: 'I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died - And so it continues.....'
The death toll of the war is huge, and not definitively known, but it has not reached the level of millions.
The FT has this morning released evidence of Russian soldiers executing Ukrainian prisoners of war. The paper's Ukraine correspondent CHRISTOPHER MILLER has mapped POW executions carried out by Russia across the frontline.
— A Trump-less summit: French President EMMANUEL MACRON hosted another round of talks in Paris on Wednesday with 19 world leaders, minus Trump. Trudeau, like many, joined virtually to discuss what Macron calls an 'existential threat' from Russia following Trump's pivot.
Our colleagues in Europe report opposition building against Trump.
EVAN DYER of CBC News points out that when speaking on borders, economics and security, Trump's talk about Canada parrots Putin's claims on Ukraine.
— Putin's least favorite Canadian: CHRYSTIA FREELAND was a leading Canadian political voice in support of Ukraine's resistance to the Russian invasion when she was in the Liberal Cabinet.
Now campaigning for Liberal Party leadership, she has focused on domestic concerns — affordable housing, the economy, and ever-present economic threats from Trump. A Star columnist recalled Wednesday the way Freeland recognized the threat of rising authoritarianism in a speech almost seven years ago.
→ Then as now: 'Authoritarianism is on the march, and it is time for liberal democracy to fight back,' Freeland said in Washington in June 2018.
On X last night she shared: 'Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no dictator — but Putin certainly is. Ukraine and the people of Ukraine are leading the global fight for democracy. Canada must stand with them.'
Where the leaders are
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will lead a virtual meeting of provincial and territorial leaders.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold a press conference in Toronto at 10:30 a.m.
— Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has not released his itinerary.
— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Edmonton where he will attend the Canadian Labour Congress Political Action conference at the Chateau Lacombe hotel. He will take questions at noon local time.
— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will travel in the morning from Toronto to her B.C. riding. JONATHAN PEDNEAULT is in Montreal where he will attend private meetings.
For your radar
DARE TO DREAM — Trudeau was in Montreal with Transport Minister ANITA ANAND on Wednesday to announce the awarding of a contract to build the long-awaited high-speed rail corridor that would reduce travel time between Quebec City and Toronto. The project will be called Alto, and it will be developed by a consortium known as Cadence that includes CDPQ Infra, AtkinsRéalis, Keolis, SYSTRA, SNCF Voyageurs and Air Canada.
Alto will have stops in Quebec City, Trois-Rivières, Montreal, Laval, Ottawa, Peterborough and Toronto along its 1,000-kilometer run.
— The marquee run: A three-hour, high-speed electricity-powered glide between Montreal and Toronto at 300 km/h.
— The current travel time: Google Maps currently pegs a car ride between Montreal's Central Station and Toronto's Union Station at 5 hours and 49 minutes. An actual train trip? 6 hours and 51 minutes.
— Welcome to the 21st century: Trudeau noted the dream to link eastern Canada's main corridor by a modern, high-speed rail line has been 'decades' in the making.
'In our first mandate after 2015, we started digging in seriously to improving rail service in this country,' he said. 'Finally, that's the work that has been done.'
— The current price tag: Canada is investing C$3.9 billion over six years, starting in 2024-25 in the co-development phase of the project. That is on top of C$371.8 million announced in the recent federal budget. The total cost and production timeline are TBD, and there are no guarantees the next government, whether Liberal or Conservative, will follow through on the project.
DULY NOTED
— Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE will present CBC's new mandate today.
The PM promised on the 2021 election trail to modernize the public broadcaster. But getting this new mandate passed through the House of Commons before he leaves office is obviously unlikely. Parliamentary work remains on hold because of prorogation, and rumors are swirling around a March writ drop.
The Globe's MARIE WOOLF sets the scene.
HALLWAY CONVERSATION
BORDER BLUES — That old axiom about Canada and the U.S. sharing the world's longest undefended border may be a thing of the past thanks to Donald Trump's election, says EDWARD ALDEN, the co-author of a new book on borders.
POLITICO met with the senior fellow at the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations, who co-wrote with LAURIE TRAUTMAN, 'When the World Closed Its Doors: The Covid-19 Tragedy and the Future of Borders.' The book takes a hard look at the unintended consequences of the global border closures after the pandemic exploded almost five years ago.
The book raises this prescient point, which has resonance these days given Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Canada if it can't do more to control the minuscule flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants into the United States from Canada: 'If governments are going to use border restrictions as a regular tool of governance, the difficult issues arise over how expansive those powers can be.'
Here's our conversation in Ottawa, which has been edited for clarity and length:
Your book makes the point that borders are sometimes a convenient tool for politicians. Given what we're seeing between Canada, the United States and, I guess, Mexico, how would you reflect on that?
It's easy to understand there are bad things out there, be they drugs or diseases or terrorists or unwanted migrants. And the notion that if countries simply harden their borders enough they can keep these things out, is quite attractive to voters.
The problem with border control as a remedy is: you put border restrictions in place, the problems continue, and then the political response is, 'Well, we need still tougher measures, more troops, more barriers, more technology on the border.'
The track record of border restrictions solving big problems is very poor, and yet we keep doubling down on it.
You live in a region people sometimes refer to as Cascadia, which includes Washington state, Oregon and British Columbia. What's the future of places like Cascadia or maybe other border areas in the Midwest, the New England states?
My life is built very much on going back and forth across the border between Washington state and British Columbia.
We saw a big decline after 9/11 when there were a series of border-hardening measures, including new identification requirements. Traffic never recovered from the 9/11 decline. We saw a much larger decline during Covid, of course, because the border was largely closed except for essential travelers. We have not seen traffic recover from the Covid declines.
It's pretty clear we're seeing a fresh drop in cross-border traffic. So these communities are becoming less and less integrated.
You came to Ottawa this week for a conference. Where did you fly from? What border did you cross? And what was that crossing like?
I drove to Vancouver, and I used my NEXUS card. I flew from Vancouver to Ottawa. It was tremendously easy.
What worries you the most about the future of mobility and borders, especially between Canada and the United States?
I worry the rhetoric out of our new president about territorial expansion is real. I think that that will cause defensive moves on the Canadian side. I don't think we know exactly where that goes.
A lot of the certainties we've lived under for quite a while — captured in the phrase 'the world's longest undefended border,' something both the United States and Canada were proud about for a long time … I think those certainties have disappeared.
So I'm really worried about — not so much about the things I think might happen — but about things I can't anticipate because we're in a very, very new political environment here in North America.
MEDIA ROOM
— Top of the Globe site this morning via BOB FIFE: 'Liberal Party questions leadership candidate RUBY DHALLA over possible interference from India.'
— Today in D.C., POLITICO is convening six state leaders for its 2025 Governors Summit, a series of one-on-one interviews on the sidelines of the National Governors Association meeting. To frame those conversations, here is a list of the most urgent political and policy questions governors face in 2025.
— The Canadian Press reports on a new Leger poll: 27 percent of Canadians view the United States as an 'enemy' country.
— In an interview Wednesday with CBC's Power & Politics, Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN said advisers to the president are 'pleased' with Canada's progress.
— Top of the Maclean's site: Canada lost its top ally. Time to find new ones.
— Since the U.S. election, 'The Joe Rogan Experience' has become dedicated to defending one increasingly important political actor in Trump's administration: ELON MUSK. POLITICO's CALDER MCHUGH reports that a vocal contingent of Rogan's fans is none too pleased.
— AIMÉE LOOK of The Logic reports that Shopify has laid off the team responsible for supporting Black, Indigenous and women entrepreneurs.
PROZONE
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN: A war of words, literally and seriously.
In other news for Pro readers:
— Senators plan another push to protect kids online.
— Elon Musk expresses interest in sending out DOGE checks.
— Trump wants Europe to buy more US farm goods. It can't.
— Tariff threat deepens Germany's car crisis.
— China hawk joins Trump White House team.
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to Sen. PATTI LABOUCANE-BENSON, COLE HOGAN of GT & Co., and former broadcast executive and political aide BONNIE BROWNLEE.
Celebrate your day with the Playbook community. Send us the details. We'll let everyone know.
Noted: 'Freedom Convoy' organizer PAT KING was sentenced to three months of house arrest in an Ottawa court, The Canadian Press reports.
Liberal MP DARRELL SAMSON has announced that he will not be running again.
Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH says she won't be in D.C. for the National Governors Association, National Post reports.
A guaranteed basic income program at the federal level could cut poverty rates for families by 40 percent in Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Office suggested in a report released Wednesday morning.
Movers and shakers: NIIGAAN SINCLAIR and THERESA TAM will be among the Canadians who will receive King Charles III coronation medals directly from Governor General MARY SIMON today in a ceremony at Rideau Hall.
JAMES RICE was recently acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in Huron-Bruce, Ontario … ANITA HUBERMAN is seeking the federal Conservative nomination in Surrey Centre, British Columbia.
Media mentions: EMILY HAWS is joining the Globe's Ottawa bureau for a year.
TRIVIA
Wednesday's answer: The quote was from PM LESTER B. PEARSON right before he signed the U.S.-Canadian Trade Agreement on Automotive Products on Jan. 16, 1965.
Props to MELISSA FELD, DANIEL BOSLEY, JONATHAN MOSER, MALCOLM MCKAY, NATHAN RUTHERFORD, JOANNA PLATER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ANDREW SZENDE, LUCAS MALINOWSKI, BOB GORDON, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, MARC LEBLANC, CHRIS RANDS, JOHN MERRIMAN, MARCEL MARCOTTE, ALEX BALLINGALL and JOHN ECKER.
Today's question: Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT has announced the designation of the Saskatchewan Doctors' Strike as an event of national historic significance under Parks Canada's historical commemoration program. How many days did the doctors strike?
Send your answer to [e-mail]
Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC.
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