Fixed or variable? Mortgage rate ‘roller-coaster ride' is making it tough to choose

Globe and Mail

5 hours ago

For the first time in nearly three years, fixed mortgage rates are more expensive than variable.
After months of steady hikes, most fixed rates are priced above 4 per cent and mortgage shoppers may be wondering: Will we see fixed rates in the mid 3 per cent level again in the near term?
It's entirely possible. What happens next depends largely on inflation, the strength of the Canadian economy and whether U.S. President Donald Trump unveils any more explosive economic policies.
These factors all affect the bond market, and bond yields are the biggest driver of fixed mortgage rates.
I spoke with Victor Tran, a mortgage expert affiliated with Ratesdotca, about what's driving bond yields higher, whether consumers missed out on the lowest rates and how this affects whether you should choose a fixed or variable mortgage.
Let's not forget that variable mortgages can save you money, but only choose one if your household finances can absorb multiple rate increases, and if the Bank of Canada's rate decisions won't keep you up at night. Here's a condensed version of our interview.
What's causing bond yields to rise?
Bond yields [for the Canada five-year bond] have been hovering around the 2.9 per cent and 3 per cent range and it's been a roller-coaster ride up and down for a while now. Bond yields are closely tied to the expectations of central bank interest rates – especially for the Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve – but it's a combination of factors leading to bond yields rising.
Number one is inflation. It's slowing – there was a report recently with July's inflation numbers coming down slightly – but it's still a concern and central banks are leaving their interest rates higher. Higher rates make bond yields rise as investors demand higher returns on their bonds. We're also heavily tied to the U.S. and they're not making any moves yet, and they have a huge influence on global bond markets. Their increase on borrowing for their fiscal policy definitely has some upward pressure, too.
Is there a sense that it's more likely for bond yields to remain high or could they come down in the coming months?
It's hard to say. They've been hovering around this rate since around the beginning of this year. High yields may still persist as inflationary pressures remain sticky, and the Bank of Canada may keep their interest rates high or potentially increase them if inflation shows no signs of relief.
There's a potential decline in bond yields if inflation does fall. If economic data shows signs of slowing growth or recession then the Bank of Canada would be able to justify rate cuts.
Earlier this year, the lowest advertised five-year fixed rate mortgage hit the 3.64 level. Now we're at 4.04 per cent. Is it possible consumers have missed out on getting the lowest possible rate?
It's safe to assume that based on what we've seen with interest rates, but it's very possible to get back to the mid-3 per cent range again. It doesn't really take much for things to take a 180-degree turn. We're heavily reliant on the U.S. and if the President says something down there and makes a huge change that impacts global markets, then yeah we could see rates come down as quick as we did before.
It bears reminding that when rates were at their lowest, people talked about how it was a result of Mr. Trump's trade war.
Yes, but I also wouldn't say people missed out on the lowest rates. We're not that far away from those rates right now. We're roughly at half a per cent difference, and that's not a huge amount depending on where you are in the market and your mortgage amount.
Now that variable rates are starting out cheaper than fixed, how does that affect how people pick between the two?
Fixed and variable is still pretty much on par. The difference is less than 10 basis points. Personally I've only gone for variable rates, I'm still on a variable rate right now. If I was to renew a mortgage I'd renew with a variable right now, because I do believe that it's just a matter of time before the Bank of Canada drops the rate again.
It's not for everyone though, it really depends on the risk tolerance and that's really what it comes down to for any borrower that plans to hold the mortgage. Most people prefer stability, that's why the fixed rate options are there, but if someone can handle some fluctuating payments and a little bit of risk, personally I think a variable rate is still a pretty good bet right now.
Do you have a mortgage question? If so, please send it to personal finance editor Roma Luciw and our mortgage expert could answer it in an upcoming story.
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