Morgan Stanley says humanoid robots will be a $5 trillion market by 2050. How to play it
New estimates from Morgan Stanley suggest investment opportunity in the global humanoid value chain as the technology gets closer to reality. Wall Street continues to double down on its forecasts of a multi-trillion dollar global market for humanoid robots, suggesting it will grow to be significantly larger than the global auto industry by the next couple of decades. New estimates from Morgan Stanley analysts forecast $4.7 trillion in global humanoid revenue by 2050, which the firm said is double the total revenue of the 20 largest automakers in 2024. What's more, while auto revenue could "very well shrink over the next 25 years," analysts estimate that global humanoid adoption will accelerate and reach roughly 1 billion units by 2050, the investment bank said. "With enthusiastic backing from enterprises, investors and governments, the humanoid space is evolving rapidly," Morgan Stanley analysts Adam Jonas and Sheng Zhong wrote in a report on Tuesday. Makers of integrated humanoids "that own robot brains, bodies, branding and ecosystems offer the highest value." Outperforming in 2025 Morgan Stanley's 'Humanoid 100' database includes several players in the global humanoid market, including companies making the brains and body of the robot — simulation and vision software, semiconductor makers, sensors, batteries and actuator parts — along with names that are creating and integrating humanoid figures. This collection of companies is up 4.5% year to date, far outperforming the S & P 500, the bank said. Much of this growth can be attributed to Chinese companies. China is the world's largest car manufacturer and also the top robot market in the world, according to the International Federation of Robotics. "Robots will need to be increasingly adopted to mitigate the labor cost gap between the U.S. and China/other low-cost countries," Jonas and Zhong wrote in the 25-page report. "We note that 7 of the top 10 ['Humanoid 100'] performers are China-based, most of them 'body' (component) companies rallying on hope that government support, new investments and demand from legacy manufacturing (autos, aerospace, etc.) will lead to material humanoid-related revenues over the coming years." The U.S., meanwhile, should see humanoid adoption explode starting in the mid-to-late 2030s and on into the 2040s, according to the firm, which estimates that the U.S. humanoid market could generate roughly $240 billion in total revenue by 2040 and $1 trillion by 2050. 'High potential' stocks Investors looking to play a promising global industry can consider companies such as Tesla , Alibaba and Nvidia that Morgan Stanley believes offer "high potential" in the humanoid robot market. Tesla and Amazon are both rated overweight by Morgan Stanley analysts, and are considered the two leading U.S. stocks among humanoid integrators. Nvidia , Alphabet and Meta are companies working on the so-called brains of humanoids, creating the foundational models that are powering reasoning and skill capabilities. Nvidia in March announced a suite of technologies to power humanoid robots, including an open, fully customizable model Isaac GR00T N1 that allows humanoids to interpret instructions and mirror human reflexes to perform various tasks, such as grasping and moving objects. Nvidia first announced Project GR00T, its general-purpose foundational model, more than a year ago. China-based Alibaba and Shenzhen Inovance are also leading humanoid innovation. Inovance creates advanced motion control technology for robotic applications. To be sure, Wall Street estimates on humanoids continue to vary (see CNBC's previous reporting here) . Goldman Sachs estimates global humanoid robot demand potentially achieving a $38 billion total addressable market by 2035, and modeled 502,000 global humanoid robot shipments by the end of 2032. BofA Global Research believes global humanoid robot shipments will reach 18,000 units in 2025, and 10 million units globally by the end of 2035, reflecting an 88% compound annual growth rate over the decade.
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