Analyzing the Belmont Stakes field: Journalism favored over Sovereignty again

New York Times

3 days ago

The Belmont Stakes is back at Saratoga this June, while construction continues at Long Island's Belmont Park, which was demolished to make room for a brand-new racing facility, expected to open in late 2026.
The track at the old Belmont Park was a mile-and-a-half oval, the only one of that length in the country and one perfectly suited to the Belmont Stakes' 12 furlongs (a furlong is an eighth of a mile). That will remain unchanged when Belmont reopens.
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But the track at Saratoga is 1 1/8 miles. For horses to run a 12-furlong race over it, officials would either have to change the location of the finish line or place the starting gate on the turn, a less-than-ideal option. As a result, the New York Racing Association has shortened the Belmont Stakes for its Saratoga sojourn to 1 1/4 miles, the same distance as the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Travers Stakes and many others. The mile-and-a-quarter distance is considered the classic distance in U.S. racing, but the mile-and-a-half Belmont is considered the 'Test of the Champion,' a unique challenge. The distance change has led some racing observers to declare that a shortened Belmont is an asterisked Belmont.
The history books tell us something different. In its 157-year history, the Belmont Stakes has been run at distances from nine to 13 furlongs, and when Sir Barton became the first horse to win the series that would become known as the Triple Crown, his Belmont was run at 1 3/8 miles. In fact, of the 13 Triple Crown winners, only the last five have won it in the configuration exactly as it currently exists: For some, the races were in a different order, or at a different track or at different lengths.
We won't see a Triple Crown winner this year: Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty skipped the Preakness, but he'll return here to take on Preakness winner Journalism and six other runners, five of whom raced in neither of the first two legs of the Triple Crown.
The weather in Saratoga looks to be pretty rainy on Friday and Saturday, an essential factor to keep in mind as you handicap. You'll see me note below whether the horses have experience on an 'off-track,' which refers to the potential for a muddy track. The four stages of a dirt track are fast, good, muddy and sloppy. 'Off' essentially means muddy or sloppy.
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Post time for the Belmont Stakes is 7:04 p.m. ET. Television coverage begins on FS1 at 10:30 a.m., switching to Fox at 2:30 p.m. and running until 7:30 p.m. FS1 will also offer more gambling-focused programming from 4:30 to 6:30 p.m. All coverage can also be streamed on the Fox Sports app and FoxSports.com.
In post-position order, here's your look at the field for the Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes. Good luck and safe trips to all.
Trainer Chad Brown grew up not far from Saratoga Race Course, spending time in its backyard watching racing with his family. Winning the Belmont for the first time, especially at his hometown track, would add to his already-impressive record. He's in with a chance with this one. Hill Road won the traditional Belmont Stakes prep, the Peter Pan Stakes, a month ago. The horse won't be hindered by this inside post, as he tends to run from well back before making a move. World-class jockey Irad Ortiz is in his saddle for the first time, which definitely doesn't hurt his chances. Do note that he's never run on an off-track.
The Kentucky Derby winner has been training well since returning to Saratoga, and there's not much to say about him that hasn't been said before. He's beautifully bred and, like the horse to his inside, he likes to come from behind. So the No. 2 post won't post a problem; and he answered the wet-track question decisively in the Derby. Nothing here not to like.
A foot bruise kept him out of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, so this one hasn't raced since winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens in early April. He has been doing quite a bit of traveling, from his home base in southern California to New York for the Wood, then back to California, followed by a trip to Kentucky to prepare for the Derby, and then back to California. He's not done any local prepping for the race, and he's never run on an off-track. Add the layoff, and I'm looking elsewhere, despite having Hall-of-Fame rider Mike Smith on board.
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Uncaged is a beautifully bred colt who doesn't bring much of a record to this race. He won on first asking at Saratoga last summer, but trainer Pletcher and owner Repole aimed their promising young horses toward the Triple Crown trail, and until recently, this guy has been nowhere near it. His only other win came in an optional claimer, and in his first graded-stakes race, he finished sixth in the Peter Pan. One plus, and it could be significant: Both of his wins came on muddy tracks. If the track comes up wet, he moves up.
Crudo is a promising colt who hasn't done much wrong in a light career so far. He's won two of his three lifetime starts, each by more than seven lengths, and he's got stamina to spare in his pedigree — note that his sire is 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. He's untested at the distance and on an off-track, so while much respect goes to his trainer and jockey, I'm looking elsewhere.
The buzz horse going into the race is a half-brother to last year's Belmont winner Dornoch and 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. In addition to that impressive bloodline on his dam side, Baeza's sire is a multiple Grade-1 winner who earned $3.7 million and excelled at the classic distance. His only start on an off-track was a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Given all the other reasons to like him, I don't see a wet track as being a deterrent.
If his runner-up performance in the Kentucky Derby wasn't convincing enough, his remarkably brave and impressive performance in the Preakness confirmed Journalism's place in the top tier of this year's 3-year-olds. He's been at Saratoga for several weeks and got in a workout over the track last weekend. He's looked absolutely stupendous and is a deserving favorite. As he demonstrated in the Derby, the slop won't be a problem for him.
I didn't think Heart of Honor had a chance in the Preakness, and I'm not sure he's got one here, either. The trainer/jockey father/daughter story is a good one, and Osborne is a trainer who does like to take a shot, albeit not senseless ones. But the Preakness was his first race in the United States, and he's never won on an off-track. I'm passing again.
(Photo of Umberto Rispoli on Journalism after winning the Preakness: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)