The Social Security tsunami: Payments could be cut by 23%, doubling the poverty rate for America's seniors

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6 days ago

As millions of Americans rely on Social Security for their monthly income, new reports indicate the program's finances are at a critical juncture. Here's what every current or soon-to-be recipient should understand about the future of Social Security, the risks to your benefits, and what steps Congress could take to keep the program strong.
When will Social Security 'run out of money'?
The latest 2025 Social Security Trustees Report finds the program's main reserve fund—the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund—will be depleted in 2033. That's just eight years from now.
At that point, unless Congress acts, the system will only have enough payroll tax revenue coming in to pay about 77% of scheduled benefits—triggering an automatic across-the-board cut of around 23% for all recipients.
What does this mean for you?
If you're already receiving or about to receive Social Security, a typical monthly benefit check of $2,000 could drop to about $1,540 if Congress does not address the funding shortfall.
For a dual-earning couple, that could mean losing as much as $18,000 per year in benefits—potentially doubling the poverty rate among America's seniors.
Why is this happening?
For decades, Social Security collected more in taxes than it paid out, building up a trust fund that earned interest. But the math flipped in 2021: America's aging population means there are fewer workers paying into the system for each retiree drawing benefits. Recent tax changes and new laws have accelerated the shortfall, moving up the date of potential cuts.
What needs to happen to prevent cuts?
Congress needs to act within the next few years to prevent automatic benefit reductions. Lawmakers have several options—most likely, a combination of them will be required:
Raise the payroll tax cap: In 2025, earnings over $176,100 are not taxed for Social Security. Proposals would have higher earners pay more by lifting or removing this cap.
Increase the payroll tax rate: Even a gradual increase above the current 12.4% could address a significant chunk of the gap.
Raise the full retirement age: The age for full benefits is already moving to 67 for those born in 1960 or later and will likely go higher for younger generations.
Adjust the benefit formula: Lawmakers might change how initial benefits are calculated, perhaps favoring lower-income retirees with higher replacement rates while curbing benefits for high earners.
Invest in the markets: A bipartisan Senate proposal seeks to fund a new sovereign wealth fund—essentially investing part of Social Security's reserves in stocks and bonds to seek higher returns, but this involves risk and is not a guaranteed fix.
Direct federal funding: Some plans call for one-time or ongoing federal cash injections, though this would add to the national debt.
What should recipients do now?
Stay informed: Congress has a long history of fixing Social Security before benefit cuts occur—but there are no guarantees this time.
Watch for updates: Changes to COLA (Cost-of-Living Adjustment), retirement age, and tax rates are possible, but none will affect checks overnight.
Consider advocacy: Many organizations representing older Americans are urging Congress to act now to preserve benefits for current and future retirees.
The Bottom Line: Social Security will not 'run out of money' entirely; it will always have payroll taxes coming in. However, if Congress does not shore up the trust fund by 2033, automatic benefit cuts of approximately 23% will occur under current law. Most experts and lawmakers believe a fix is likely, but recipients should watch closely.
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com