Trump Has Crossed The Line—But India Has Options That Can Flip The Game

News18

6 days ago

With his erratic and irresponsible behaviour, President Trump has effectively vetoed the spirit of India-US ties
A fresh wave of hostility is emanating from the Trump camp—25 per cent tariffs on India, mocking jibes about 'Pakistani oil", the taunt that India's economy is 'dead", and a threat that India and Russia can sink together. This messaging signals a deeper frustration within the Trump team over India's refusal to bend.
Trump's tariff attack reeks of sour grapes. India has proven to be a tough negotiator, clear in its red lines and unwilling to compromise on core interests. Trump's tactics of shifting goalposts, last-minute bait-and-switches, and playing the bully have hit a wall.
The tariff announcement came just as India successfully launched NISAR, the largest joint mission between ISRO and NASA. Instead of celebrating a milestone in India-US cooperation, Trump responded with a blistering blow. The move was not without precedent; similar tactics were used with Japan and the EU. But the sudden pivot to threatening to penalise India for its oil trade with Russia while having praised and sweet-talked Putin throughout his own campaign and after marks a particularly cynical turn.
By mockingly offering 'Pakistani oil" after making a shoddy deal with Pakistan to drill out its oil reserves, and branding India as a 'dead economy", Trump has crossed a diplomatic redline. He seems determined to bait India into a bad deal. But New Delhi hasn't taken the bait. Trump has fundamentally misread India—from claiming he resolved the India-Pakistan conflict to underestimating India's economic trajectory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made it clear in Parliament: no foreign leader advised him to 'stop the war". That statement closed the door on Trump's attempt to insert himself into South Asia's conflict dynamics.
As for India's economy: far from 'dead", it is the world's fastest-growing major economy and the fourth largest overall. Trade with the US alone stands at $132 billion, with India exporting $77.5 billion and the US exporting almost $55 billion, as much as its exports to Germany, in the last fiscal year. When Trump claims the US does 'very little business" with India, the numbers prove otherwise.
With such erratic and irresponsible behaviour, Trump has effectively vetoed the spirit of India-US ties. India cannot incentivise this pattern with capitulation. So far, New Delhi's calm, measured response reflects a deliberate strategy: ignore the provocations, keep focus on India's long-term interests, and avoid any knee-jerk concessions. Modi is simply playing the long game.
Trump Playing Russia Card Out of Ukraine Desperation
India had negotiated in good faith and was ready to offer substantial trade concessions—something Trump could've claimed as a win. Instead, he targeted India's agriculture and dairy sectors—an unacceptable move in a country where more than half the population depends on farming. Worse still, he kept shifting goalposts, and ultimately, he injected Russia into the mix at the eleventh hour, demanding that India halt oil purchases or face unspecified penalties.
His abrasive tactics go beyond just the trade deal and have inflicted long-term damage on trust in the India-US relationship. From playing the Pakistan card, to inserting the Russia angle, to threatening India's economy, Trump's bullying is counterproductive. It's bad diplomacy.
The real issue might be Trump's own failure to come through. He promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war. That hasn't happened. Neither Putin nor Zelenskyy has come to the table, and Putin continues to defy US efforts. Frustrated, Trump appears to be pivoting—resuming weapons support to Ukraine and looking for new pressure points. One of them, apparently, is India. Senator Lindsey Graham is already floating ideas of secondary sanctions, tariffs of 100 per cent to 500 per cent, to punish India and China for continuing Russian oil imports.
But instead of admitting failure and seeking India's help to broker peace, Trump has chosen to antagonise a key US partner. This is overreach—and it risks turning the clock back on the relationship.
On India's part, there are reports that state refiners have ceased purchases of Russian oil, although a majority of it is bought by private refiners. Trump has taken note, claiming with uncertainty that India will stop purchases. India shunning Russian oil in its entirety will instantly raise global oil prices from an added $10 at first to as high as $140 a barrel if sustained, and raise its own import bill to $14 billion. No one wants that, including Trump, who may be going for optics to push forth with a trade deal.
India's Options Can Flip The Game
Although retaliation is not being considered mid-negotiation, India has a broad spectrum of options should tensions escalate. On trade, retaliatory tariffs, especially on steel and aluminium, remain firmly on the table. In defence, Trump may have already undermined any prospects of an F-35 deal with India. Reports say India has already communicated that it is not interested in buying F-35s especially given that technology transfer and co-production is not on the table. Other prospective defence deals could come under trouble as well, especially since India is miffed with delayed deliveries of the order already in place.
Though the US shows a $49.5 billion trade deficit with India in goods, it actually has a $35-40 billion overall surplus when earnings from education, digital services, finance, royalties, and arms sales are included. Trump's view is distorted. Putting these factors on the table may change his mind.
For Trump, the trade grievance is all about goods and no services, but that's where India can hit back hard: from imposing added duties on US tech giants to tightening anti-trust rules, raising penalties and pushing data sovereignty legislation. Education could also become a powerful lever. India is one of the largest spenders on costly American higher education. Redirecting this investment, either by retaining talent and capital within the country or shifting focus to nations that respect Indian interests would serve India's long-term strategic goals. India can also infuse new energy into PLI schemes, sweetening the industrial subsidies even more.
Geopolitically, signals are already emerging: the revival of RIC (Russia-India-China), the strengthening of BRICS, and a more assertive India in the Indo-Pacific. If the current trajectory continues, the Quad may face an untimely and bitter end. While US support has proved transient, the Chinese threat is permanent. India can work with partners like Japan, Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines without being drawn into a zero-sum great power rivalry. These options go far into the future.
From Japan to the EU, the pattern of Trump's trade deals is clear: verbal promises, inflated headline numbers, one-sided tariff concessions, and a generous ego boost for Trump but no signatures, no binding commitments, no deadlines, and plenty of loopholes.
These deals serve dual purposes. Trump gets the optics, tariffs on the American side and none on the other, large investment promises, energy and defence buyouts, a 'deal" he can talk up for political mileage, while the other side retains deniability. If Trump quotes these verbal agreements, it becomes politically expensive for his counterpart. But the other side still walks away with lowered tariffs, market stability, and enough ambiguity to keep negotiating behind the scenes.
In this context, India has been facing a strategic choice. Is it worth entering into an agreement in principle laced with promises and optical wins for Trump—buying time, securing lower tariffs, and continuing talks in the background? Or should India push for a more formal, legally binding agreement, one that Trump can't arbitrarily tear up later, but which may be harder to land now? It's become increasingly clear that India will follow the former. If the president ultimately climbs down, which is likely given his pattern and style, the 25 per cent rate may be lowered.
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The core realisation across capitals is that, for Trump, tariffs are not just a negotiating tool, they are the goal. He wants tariffs for domestic reasons: to boost revenue, cut trade deficits, bankroll future tax breaks, and revive American industries. His administration openly celebrates tariff collections, viewing them as a cash windfall for the treasury. An amount of $150 billion has already been collected.
Japan and the EU may have reached their limits. But India, less reliant on exports, has been more patient—for now. And perhaps that is why Trump has been using larger geopolitical threats and putting strategic pillars of India-US ties at risk. The latest salvos make negotiation tougher. While there's still time for the US President to recalibrate and repair the damage, the mistrust he has seeded will linger well beyond any short-term agreement.
About the Author
Shubhangi Sharma
Shubhangi Sharma is News Editor - Special Projects at News18. She covers foreign affairs and geopolitics, and also keeps a close watch on the national pulse of India.
tags :
BRICS China donald trump pakistan pm narendra modi RIC tariffs United states
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Location :
New Delhi, India, India
First Published:
August 02, 2025, 11:54 IST
News opinion Opinion | Trump Has Crossed The Line—But India Has Options That Can Flip The Game
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