Mizuho remains bullish on data centers; DLR remains top pick
Investing.com -- Analysts at Mizuho Securities remain bullish on data center REITs, reaffirming Digital Realty Trust (NYSE:DLR) as their top pick while raising price targets following first-quarter earnings updates.
Despite recent outperformance, the analysts note that the sector continues to capitalize on strong bookings and ongoing demand from hyperscale customers.
Digital Realty shares now trade at 27 times adjusted funds from operations (AFFO), representing a 30% premium to the broader REIT group. While some bears may argue 'good news' is already priced in, Mizuho's team sees multiple catalysts ahead.
The firm lifted its price target on the stock to $191 from $177, applying a 27x AFFO multiple to its estimates for fiscal year 2026 (FY26). New FFO forecasts stand at $7.13 for 2025 and $7.63 for 2026, with estimates modestly above consensus for 2025.
For Equinix (NASDAQ:EQIX), another key player in the data center space, Mizuho raised its price target to $1,069 from $1,053, reflecting updated FFO estimates of $38.08 and $41.12 for 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Mizuho's outlook for Digital Realty incorporates several key drivers. The analysts model strong rent spreads of 6% and 7% in 2025 and 2026, alongside occupancy gains of 170 and 200 basis points, respectively.
They also point to upside potential in the company's 0-1MW segment, noting management conversations that suggest a path to doubling revenue in that category by mid-to-late FY26.
'On average, the company has booked about $50mm in revenue in the last two years and a broad goal is to get to a quarterly run-rate of $100mm,' the analysts said. 'Our conversations with management suggest there is a path to that level during the next 2-3 years.'
'Theoretically, at a 50% margin, a $400mm run-rate, this could add 1-2% growth to the bottom line,' they added.
Mizuho views the recently formed investment fund as a significant growth lever. The analysts believe the fund 'could become much larger than the current estimate of $10bn to potentially match or exceed other large REIT funds.'
They see benefits over traditional joint ventures, including 'a more favorable fee structure and greater control over the assets/transactions and mitigating the risk of scaling the development pipeline.'
Mizuho also expects the fund structure to enable Digital Realty to recycle stabilized assets into the fund at attractive cap rates while allocating capital toward higher-growth projects.
Depending on when the fund closes, likely by year-end 2025, overall FFO could increase by 3 to 5 cents, according to the note.
On valuation, despite higher multiples relative to historical levels, Mizuho argues the stock premium is justified given strong bookings and the additional upside potential from the fund.
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