Cost of living and Trump's tariffs: FP Video looks at the impact
While inflation slowed in 2024, the cost of living still weighed on Canadians. The Financial Post looks at how prices fared in five key areas and where they could go in 2025.
The honour of being named Canada's Outstanding CEO of the Year started 35 years ago, with H. Harrison McCain, the head of McCain Foods Ltd., being the first recipient in 1990. Along the way, a who's who of corporate Canada have been honoured. Here are three of them and where they are now.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, talks with the Financial Post's Larysa Harapyn about the possible impact on Canada of Trump's tariffs.
Tariffs would slam Canada's economic heartland
Where the cost of living is heading in 2025
U.S. tariffs paused, Canadian patriotism on the rise
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Newsweek
28 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Rental Market Starts to See Effects of Trump's Immigration Crackdown
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The sharp about-turn in immigration levels since January looks set to have an impact on the U.S. housing market — particularly when it comes to rentals — though its wider effects could take longer to be felt. New analysis from economic and housing experts shows that the surge in demand for housing seen over the past four years is easing slightly, as fewer immigrants arrive in the U.S., and President Donald Trump's mass deportation plan is put into action. "The big thing that had happened the past few years is we saw a huge burst in immigration on a net basis into the United States, much of that through the southern border," Lance Lambert, founder of the housing-market research site Resi Club, told Newsweek. "So, what that did to the housing market is it created more demand, rental demand in particular, at the bottom of the market." Lambert said the markets that will see the biggest impact of lower migration numbers will be those metropolitan areas which saw high numbers of legal and illegal new arrivals in recent years, such as New York City, Miami and Houston. These cities have seen demand for housing surge, with data regularly showing soaring rental costs and a lack of available units. In Manhattan, rents steadily climbed after a pandemic-era low to a median asking price of $4,745 in July, with a total rental inventory of 18,936 units, compared to 21,317 the year before, per StreetEasy. Not all of this would have been driven by immigration, but it was likely a contributing factor in the city's ever-present housing shortage. Miami saw similar surges in costs, despite an ever-expanding metropolitan area, as Florida's immigrant population grew. Migrants Blamed for Housing Squeeze During the 2024 presidential election campaign, Vice President JD Vance was among those on the right who put the blame for America's housing squeeze squarely on immigrants. In a speech at the Republican National Convention last July, the then-VP nominee spoke about U.S. homebuilders that went out of business during the financial crisis of 2008, putting a dent in new-home construction that has continued. "Then the Democrats flooded this country with millions of illegal aliens," Vance said. "So citizens had to compete with people who shouldn't even be here for precious housing." This messaging was one of the factors driving support for mass deportations and other stricter immigration measures. Since President Trump and Vice President Vance took office, there has been a noticeable shift in immigration patterns. Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the center-right American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told Newsweek that net migration was likely to dramatically fall in 2025, potentially by as much as 650,000. "That's mostly driven by a reduction in flows both at the southern border, but also various legal pathways that have been cut off or reduced, including the Refugee Resettlement Program and humanitarian programs for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Ukrainians, and Afghans," Veuger said. "So that, in turn, will have an impact on various macro-outcomes." The Impact of Trump 2.0 Policies Veuger and his colleagues predict that GDP growth will be reduced by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points this year, partly because of the reduction in migrants leading to a loss of in employees in sectors like construction. In the months leading up to and following the 2024 election, others also made similar predictions, warning that a loss of immigrants, both legal and illegal, would have a drastic effect on the U.S. economy. When it comes to housing, those impacts may not be felt just yet, Lambert told Newsweek, with the market not necessarily reflecting the drop in net migration or the effects of tariffs on building materials. "At the moment, builders are not seeing any meaningful increases in material cost nor labor cost," said Lambert, of Resi Club. "If we potentially see a long sustaining pullback in immigration through the border, could that over time create some tightening impact to the labor market and the residential construction sector? Yeah, potentially. He added: "But at the end of the day, right now, the bigger macro features of the housing cycle are playing a much bigger role to builders." Construction workers build homes at a new housing development on August 08, 2025 in Henderson, Nevada. Construction workers build homes at a new housing development on August 08, 2025 in Henderson, pointed to an overall slowdown in the housing market since the pandemic, including affordability issues, a rising number of available units sitting for longer and a drop in demand as the real issues facing housing rather than immigration policies. "Keep in mind that immigration essentially had a pull-forward where there was more immigration the past few years than would have otherwise occurred," Lambert said. "So even with a pullback or a net decline in immigration this year, we still have more people who immigrated the past few years than the trend expected. "So it would take several years of very little immigration through the southern border or even net declines to fully smooth out that big burst that we saw in 2023-2024." Veuger said that AEI is predicting a dramatic slowdown in migration numbers over the next two years, which could impact the economy more widely, but those levels could return to normal soon after depending on federal policy and who wins the White House in 2028 — meaning only time will tell how big an impact the administration's policies will have on long-term housing and construction. "Part of what drives the very low net migration number now is that there are millions and millions of people in the country who arrived relatively recently," Veuger said. "If you are a recent arrival, you're much more likely to leave, either voluntarily or through extradited removal. "Two, three years from now, after we will have had a number of years with many fewer arrivals, we will have fewer recent arrivals who are so likely to leave."
Fox News
28 minutes ago
- Fox News
President Trump: I'm down to 'three or four names' for a new Fed chairman
President Donald Trump discusses the Federal Reserve's policies at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.
CNN
37 minutes ago
- CNN
Inflation holds steady, but Trump's tariffs are boosting some prices
Falling gas prices helped keep overall inflation tame in July; however, a broader array of products got even more expensive last month, showing that President Donald Trump's expansive tariffs are being passed along to consumers. Consumer prices rose 0.2% in July, keeping the annual inflation rate at 2.7%, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Stocks were higher on Tuesday. The Dow rose 480 points, or 1.09%. The S&P 500 rose 0.73% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.72%. 'We have seen moderate inflation over the last year … certainly, prices are not going up nearly as quickly as they were a few years ago,' Gus Faucher, senior vice president and chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, told CNN in an interview. 'But I do think that consumers are going to start seeing more price increases at the grocery store, at Amazon, things like that.' 'Consumers are going to start to feel a little more stretched over the next few months as we see more of the impact of tariffs passed through from businesses to consumers,' he added. However, considering that energy and food prices tend to be quite volatile on a month-to-month basis, the 'core' index that excludes those two categories is widely viewed as a good measurement of underlying inflation trends. Core CPI rose 0.3% from June, the fastest increase since January, which brought the annual rate to 3.1%, the highest in five months. 'Gas prices are down, but we can't count on that to keep inflation low,' Faucher said. 'So, even if energy prices stabilize and gas prices are just stable, then that means that overall inflation is going to be higher, and that is going to put more pressure on consumers.' The core goods category, which is being closely scrutinized in the wake of higher tariffs, rose 0.2% for the second consecutive month. Economists had expected inflation to heat up slightly last month, to 0.2% from June and by 2.8% annually, according to FactSet. While tariff-exposed goods categories did see some price increases in July, the lion's share of cost pressures came from services, particularly the housing-related shelter category, which has been an inflationary bogeyman in recent years. Still, overall shelter prices (which include measurements of rents and other housing-related costs) continued to cool from pandemic-era spikes. Prices rose 0.2% in July and eased to 3.7% from a year ago, the lowest 12-month increase since October 2021. How tariff-exposed goods prices are rising Trump's sweeping trade policy of tacking steep tariffs on most goods that cross America's borders are widely expected to result in higher prices for businesses and consumers — although not to the extent seen in 2022 and other high-inflationary periods. While there may not be a broad-based acceleration in inflation, higher prices anywhere — especially come Back-to-School season and around the holidays — aren't easy to swallow for many Americans, especially those with little-to-no wiggle room in their budgets. 'The thing to understand is [tariff-induced inflation] is not going to happen with a bang but rather more of a slow deterioration in purchasing power,' Joe Brusuelas, RSM US chief economist, told CNN. Many economists also believe that tariffs will cause a one-time lift in prices and not necessary a lasting and accelerating surge in price hikes. There's a laundry list of reasons why tariff-driven price hikes are a slow boil: Businesses loaded up their warehouses with pre-tariffed goods; higher costs have been split by entities along the supply chain, lessening the blow at the retail store; and Trump's fits-and-starts approach to tariffs has meant that the bulk of them did not go into effect for months. At the same time, inflation has remained relatively tame for good and not-so-good reasons: Ongoing deflationary trends in key areas, marking a continued unwinding from pandemic-era shortages and price spikes; falling gas prices (they're down 9.5% from July of last year); there are many other components of CPI (core goods are just 25%); and then because of depressed consumer demand in areas such as travel. Monthly economic data can be quite volatile, and economists frequently caution that it's important to take a longer view. However, CPI reports and, especially, July's data are bearing hallmarks of higher tariffs, albeit in a scattershot fashion: Commodities excluding food and gas: Prices rose 0.2% for the second consecutive month after being flat in May. This index excludes volatile food and energy components and is being closely scrutinized in the wake of higher tariffs. Apparel and footwear: Trump's tariffs were expected to raise the cost of most clothing and footwear, but the hardest-hit items were expected to be some of the most basic (cheap T-shirts, socks, sneakers and undies). The clothes and shoes that land on retail shelves are largely sourced from countries such as Vietnam and China, which have tariff rates north of 20% and 30%, respectively. Overall apparel prices nudged up just 0.1% in July after rising 0.4% in June. Footwear, however, shot up 1.4% in July — the highest monthly rate in more than four years — after rising 0.7% in June. Appliances: This was one of the first categories to show sharper increases in prices. After rising 0.8% in April and May and then 1.9% in June, prices for appliances settled back down in July, falling 0.9%. Furniture and bedding: Price hikes accelerated in July, rising 0.9% after posting a 0.4% increase in June. Outdoor equipment and supplies: This import-heavy category saw prices jump 2.2% in July, the highest in more than two years, after falling 0.1% in June. Sporting goods: The pace of price hikes remained elevated, although not to the extent in June when they rose 1.4%. Prices were up 0.4% in July. Tools, hardware and supplies: During much of 2023 and 2024, prices fell for this category. However, since April, prices have risen between 1.1% and 1.2% each month (the index was up 1.2% in July.). Toys: After rising by 1.3% and 1.8% in May and June, respectively. Toy prices inched up 0.2% in July. More price hikes could be coming down the pike, however, Hasbro CEO told CNN's Audie Cornish recently. The vast majority of toys are produced in China. Windows and floor coverings and other linens: The US textile industry has shrunk considerably in recent decades, resulting in a high reliance on imported linens. After a record-high 4.2% increase in June, prices rose 1.2% in July. Fed at the crossroads, BLS in the crosshairs The tariff pass-through to consumers appeared to be slower in July than it was in June, said Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. 'I don't think that necessarily means that it's over, it's done, or we've seen the peak,' he said. 'I don't think that's the case at all.' The pre-tariff stockpiling has mitigated some of the price increases thus far; however, it can't happen indefinitely, he said. 'The question we have on top of that is where does that (price increase) show up? Who eats that? Where does that show up in the supply chain?' he said. 'There's probably going to be some of that eaten into the supply chain, but I think a lot of it is going to be passed on to consumers.' 'But as far as the economy is concerned, either way, it's not a particularly good outcome,' he said, adding that businesses and consumers will have less money to spend. As for the Federal Reserve, Tuesday's inflation data doesn't necessarily mean the central bank will stay on the sidelines at its upcoming meeting in September, wrote Michael Hanson, senior global economist at JPMorgan Securities. 'Today's report does not pressure the Fed away from a likely insurance cut at its next meeting given concerns about a weakening labor market,' he wrote in a note Tuesday. The US labor market appears to be on much shakier ground than was thought heading into the Fed's last rate decision in late-July. The August 1 jobs report showed that job gains in July were tepid, at 73,000, and that job gains in the two months prior were revised down substantially. The large downward revisions put the BLS in the crosshairs. Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, baselessly claiming she 'rigged' the data (an allegation that Trump's former BLS head and a cadre of statisticians and economists resoundingly disputed). The upheaval at the BLS does not directly impact July's CPI report; however, other actions taken by the Trump administration are potentially leaving their mark. The BLS, one of many federal agencies subject to the Department of Government Efficiency's blunt axe, has increasingly cut back on the data collection that feeds into the critical pricing gauge. The geographic and sample cuts that have taken places since April aren't expected to massively affect the overall annual CPI rates; however, they could make the monthly data even more volatile, economists say. The next big piece of inflation data is due out Thursday when the BLS releases the Producer Price Index, which will provide a look at how prices are changing upstream of the consumer.
