Putin has just discovered the scale of his latest miscalculation
The announcement should put to bed any remaining speculation that the president was prepared to unilaterally surrender Ukraine to Russia. These concerns reached a fever pitch after his disastrous February Oval Office meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky and subsequent temporary moratorium on intelligence sharing and arms deliveries to Ukraine. Since Kyiv repaired trust with the Trump administration by agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire in Jeddah on March 11, the White House has viewed Russia as the primary obstacle to peace.
Initially, Trump evidently believed that he could steer Russia towards peace through constructive dialogue. He regularly called Putin, and his envoy Steve Witkoff expressed openness to legitimising Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territory. But Putin treated these conciliatory gestures as displays of weakness and decided to escalate the war. Russia's record-setting drone and missile barrages on Ukrainian cities reflected Putin's confidence in his impunity and in Trump's unwillingness to escalate.
Much like his underestimation of Ukrainian resolve and Western military assistance after his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin's bombast has been caught cold. Trump's new measures do not satisfy all of Ukraine's expectations, but have the potential to deal serious harm to Russia's war machine and faltering economy.
As Joe Biden's administration had only provided Ukraine with a small number of ATACM long-range missiles, these stocks were reportedly depleted by late January. Ukraine has been forced to largely rely on its drone innovations to strike targets deep inside Russian territory and its June 1 Operation Spiderweb attack on Russian strategic bombers was a signature triumph.
While new US missiles will not unilaterally change the course of the war, they could broaden Ukraine's ability to strike Russian military and economic infrastructure. Even without additional US support, reports suggest that Ukraine was recently able to strike a major gas pipeline in Langepas in Russia's Tyumen Oblast that supplies military facilities in Chelyabinsk, Orenburg and Sverdlovsk. With more US aid, Ukraine's possibilities grow significantly.
Much depends on the nature of the technology that the US is willing to export. Ukraine hopes that Trump will approve the delivery of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a newly minted upgrade on ATACMs that is compatible with Himars systems. The PrSM has a strike radius of approximately 500km which is significantly higher than the 300km range for ATACMs.
As the PrSM has not been authorised for delivery even to close Nato allies, F-16 compatible JASSM-ER missiles are more plausible options for Ukraine. These missiles can strike targets up to 925 km away and could fulfil Trump's braggadocio about approving strikes on Moscow. Even if he settles simply for more ATACMs, he will signal to Putin that he is no longer afraid of the Kremlin's nuclear bluff.
Trump's secondary tariffs on Russia's main trade partners may be difficult to enforce without undermining other aspects of his economic agenda. Imposing tariffs on the United Arab Emirates, a key financial hub for Russian business elites, for example, might compromise the investment influx pledged during Trump's May trip to Abu Dhabi.
These tariffs would also risk an escalation spiral in the US trade war with China and derail final-hurdle trade negotiations with India. As Russia has already largely decoupled itself from Western-dominated financial networks, the short-term economic repercussions for US trade partners in the developing world may be worse than for Russia itself.
Nonetheless, any new tariffs will restrict Russia's import supply chains and compound rising inflation. If they are paired with new sectoral and individual sanctions, the damage to Russia's war economy could be profound. At the June 2025 St Petersburg Economic Forum, Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov signalled a recession might be imminent. That risk has just jumped significantly.
Trump has finally realised that Putin can only be stopped by intensifying economic and military pressure on his war machine. This realisation might not quickly end the war, but will be a relief to Ukrainians facing Russia's daily bombardments.
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