
Hedge fund boss Ray Dalio warns Britain trapped in 'debt doom loop'
It comes as Rachel Reeves prepares to further increase levies and slash spending in October to avoid breaking her fiscal rules. Analysts have warned that the Chancellor is facing a black hole of up to £30billion in the Autumn Budget.
'As the financial problems and the social problems worsen, having the effect of causing people with money to leave. That's a problem because – I don't know the exact numbers in the UK, but they're analogous to the US – 75 per cent of income taxes are paid by the top 10 per cent. So if you lose 5 per cent of the population in that category, half of those people, you lose 35 per cent or more of the tax revenue.'
He added: 'So you have this financial deterioration, that precedes social and economic deterioration that has caused migrations all around the world and so on. And there is only one way to deal with that. Both of our countries need a strong leadership of a strong middle. They have to have the war between those of the left and those of the right begin to end because difficult choices are going to have to be made, you know, like our countries had in World War II.'
It comes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week cautioned that Ms Reeves faces having to take drastic action on spending unless she abandons her pledge not to hike taxes on working people.
Mr Dalio's comments echoed a warning from the head of the UK spending watchdog who earlier this month said there were 'reasons to worry' about surging debt, but cautioned against 'higher and higher taxes'. Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), told MPs that successive chancellors had been willing to see the debt pile 'ratcheted up and up over time'.
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Powys County Times
39 minutes ago
- Powys County Times
Hotel protests must not be used to ‘have a pop at the police'
Protests outside hotels housing asylum seekers must not be used to 'have a pop at the police', the border security minister has warned. Dame Angela Eagle promised that the Government was 'doing the detailed work' to crack down on small boat crossings, after the Home Office unveiled its plan to pump an extra £100 million into tackling people smuggling. Some of the money will support the 'one in, one out' returns agreement pilot with France, and some will go towards funding extended police powers to seize digital devices. Protesters have gathered outside hotels over recent weeks throughout the country, including in London, Newcastle and Epping in Essex, calling for their closure. Conservative shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick has warned that 'the public's patience with the asylum hotels and with the whole issue of illegal migration has snapped', after small boat crossings topped 25,000 for the year so far, a record for this point in the year. Asked on Sky News what her message was to protesters, Dame Angela said: 'Anger doesn't get you anywhere. 'What we have to do is recognise the values we have in this country, the rule of law we have in this country, the work we're doing with the police to protect people. 'We will close asylum hotels by the end of the Parliament. 'We'll do it faster if we can.' Dame Angela also said: 'We are doing all we can to deal with the challenges that the police are facing on the streets to make sure that women and girls are safe, and in fact, that everybody is safe on our streets.' She had earlier told Times Radio: 'Those who are worried and demonstrating have an absolute right to do that, so long as they do it peacefully. 'People don't have a right to then have a pop at the police, which has been happening in some isolated cases outside hotels.' Referring to plans to let police seize devices from people suspected of facilitating people smuggling, Dame Angela said the Government does not 'want absolutely every phone'. She told Times Radio: 'But we do want the phones of the people that we think are organising and facilitating, and this extra money will enable us to do much quicker analytics of the phones that we seize. 'But of course, we've got to get the Border Security Bill on the statute book to give us those extra powers.' The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill has cleared the Commons but must undergo further scrutiny in the Lords before it becomes law. Turning to social media creators who advertise illegal routes into the UK, Dame Angela said: 'We will stop anyone who comes to the UK where we've got evidence, and what happens is that the people smugglers are getting people to say how safe the journeys were and do adverts once they're in the UK. 'We will stop that, and we will also deal with other jurisdictions and ask them to help us deal with this as well, we could certainly do that in the EU with our colleagues in Germany, in France.' Where there is 'evidence that legal routes to visas are being misused', the Government will 'tighten up the rules to stop that abuse happening', the minister added. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has previously said the money, which will also help pay for surveillance capabilities and data analysis tools, will 'turbo-charge the ability of our law enforcement agencies to track the gangs and bring them down, working with our partners overseas, and using state-of-the-art technology and equipment'. She added: 'Alongside our new agreements with France, this will help us drive forward our plan for change commitments to protect the UK's border security and restore order to our immigration system.' The National Crime Agency has 91 ongoing investigations into people smuggling networks affecting the UK, the agency's director general of operations Rob Jones said. Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr Jenrick said: 'The public's patience with the asylum hotels and with the whole issue of illegal migration has snapped. 'This is an issue that is beyond party politics. 'It is causing immense harm to communities, and people's lives are being wrecked as a result of it, and we simply have to fix it. 'I respect those people who are peacefully protesting outside hotels this weekend, I understand why they feel so concerned. 'They're seeing their communities damaged, and I'm afraid there is increasing evidence of a serious link between illegal migration, migration generally, and crime, particularly sexual crime, against women and girls.'


South Wales Guardian
39 minutes ago
- South Wales Guardian
Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes to stand down as MSP in 2026
The MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch said she does not wish to 'miss any more of the precious early years of family life'. She is one of the SNP's most significant politicians, having finished second in the 2023 leadership election, which saw Humza Yousaf succeed Nicola Sturgeon as party leader. When John Swinney became First Minister last year, he appointed Ms Forbes to his cabinet as his deputy, also taking charge of the Government's economy portfolio. In a statement shared on Monday, Ms Forbes said she had reflected over recess and decided not to run again in 2026. She said she had been 'privileged' to serve her various roles in government. Ms Forbes said: 'I remain wholly supportive of the First Minister just as when I backed him to be leader of the SNP and I look forward to campaigning for the SNP at the next election – to lead Scotland to independence. 'I was first elected in my mid-20s, dedicating my most formative adult years to public service. In that time, I presented multiple budgets, supported thousands of businesses and workers during Covid-19 and launched Scotland's most ambitious business start up network TechScaler. 'I now wish to step back from my public duties and focus on new opportunities to serve people. 'I have grown up in the public eye, getting married, having a baby and raising a young family. 'I have consistently put the public's needs ahead of my family's during that time. I am grateful to them for accommodating the heavy demands of being a political figure. 'Looking ahead to the future, I do not want to miss any more of the precious early years of family life – which can never be rewound.' The First Minister wrote back to Ms Forbes, saying he understood her decision and thanking her for her contributions. Mr Swinney said: ''You have made a huge contribution to public life in Scotland and have been instrumental in making progress on economic issues for my Government. 'You have much to be proud of in all of the work you have undertaken but I am especially heartened by the effect of your leadership on advancing support for the Gaelic language. 'We all wrestle with the inevitable conflicts between family and public life and I sympathise with the dilemmas you have faced. 'I wish you, Ali and your family well and much happiness in the years ahead.'


Telegraph
39 minutes ago
- Telegraph
Britain's holiday job disaster leaves teenagers to idle their summer away
This summer, teenagers and students who would usually be serving ice creams, working the tills and pulling pints during tourist season are finding that they're no longer in demand. 'I don't understand how nobody is hiring me,' writes a student on Reddit who is desperate for summer work. 'The other day the guy interviewing me says there was 120 applicants and he was interviewing 25 people to fill two roles. I honestly just want something to do.' The plunge in part-time vacancies is not because of a lack of tourism during the summer months. Instead, bosses are being forced to cutback on summer holiday roles because Rachel Reeves's tax raid, announced during the autumn Budget, has made hiring more expensive. Since Reeves unveiled an increase in employers' National Insurance contributions (NICs) and lowered the threshold at which it is paid, around 84,000 jobs in hospitality disappeared. In June, when bars and restaurants typically staff-up for the short-lived English summer, job openings in the sector plunged by over 22,000 compared with the same month last year. The figures, from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, have led industry groups to warn of the 'death of the great British summer job'. Pub owners admit that tax rises are wiping out temporary roles first. 'Every pub and restaurant has had to cut back on shifts – you look after your regular staff first to give them decent hours so temporary staff have been hit hard,' says Clive Watson, the founder of the City Pub Company. Parents worried that their children have been idling away their summer after failing to find any work are now taking matters into their own hands. 'A lot of parents are ringing me up trying to find jobs for their teenagers,' admits one pub boss who has been inundated with CVs in recent weeks. Bill Dowling, who runs Compton McCrae, a farm shop and cafe in Dorset, has also had parents contact him. 'I have had more inquiries this year than normal,' he says. 'Parents think their kids should be out earning their own money.' In some households, tensions are growing. 'Mum forces me to be proactive with work but I'd rather be watching cricket and playing golf,' admits one university student, who blames older graduates unable to get full-time jobs for snapping up temporary summer work. A recent graduate adds: 'The reason I've ended up doing a lower-paid job like waitressing – where I still struggle to pick up shifts – is because I applied to lots of well-paid internships [this summer] but didn't get them.' Graduate job postings fell 33pc in the 12 months to June compared with last year, according to Indeed, meaning that there are more older, experienced candidates now competing for part-time summer shifts. As more job hunters battle for far fewer roles, those with blank CVs feel stuck. Kate Nicholls, chairman of UKHospitality, the industry trade body, says young people aren't learning soft skills or gaining confidence because 'jobs which would normally have given them the ability to do that are being taxed out of existence'. 'As a parent and an employer, I'm really worried about this generation of young people,' she adds. Concerned that younger staff with no experience are paying the price for the tax raid, Nicholls wants the Government to offer tax breaks to companies that hire the unemployed or long-term sick. She has urged Sir Charlie Mayfield, the former boss of John Lewis and head of the Government's Keep Britain Working review, to take note as he prepares to publish his conclusions this autumn. 'Extending NIC holidays for those returning to work from long-term sickness, unemployment, or those who are disabled would give businesses the incentives to recruit and make it financially viable to retain these part-time, entry-level opportunities,' she says, adding that she has made this request 'explicit' in meetings related to the Keep Britain Working review. In the meantime, unemployed teenagers, students and graduates are giving each other tips online on how to secure summer work – such as avoiding traditional hospitality roles and instead considering 'more niche jobs' such as car washing – while parents are grumbling about their children playing video games for up to 12 hours a day. Many feel despondent. Already hit hard by the impact of the pandemic on their education and social lives, Nicholls says that the dearth of summer roles is yet another blow for the lockdown generation. 'This was a generation badly impacted by Covid – they missed those rite of passage summer jobs and they missed work experience at school as well. They've had no chance to build up their experience. It's not that the work isn't there or that we don't need staff, it's that we simply can't afford them [since tax rises in the Budget].' The hopelessness set in early in the summer. A 16-year-old with no work experience wrote online in early June that they had applied for more than 40 roles and only received five interviews. 'I was rejected from four of them and haven't heard back from the other one. I'm feeling ready to give up,' they wrote on Reddit. Simon Stenning, a hospitality industry expert, says that younger workers are bearing the brunt of Reeves's tax rises because although they are cheaper than older staff 'they are also less effective, which is hard for operators to afford when every labour cost is under the microscope'. Those who can't rely on family wealth to bankroll their summer plans are being hit the hardest, scrambling for work and going to interview after interview, while those who don't need the money barely notice. 'My son is too well supported by his parents [to care about the lack of summer jobs],' admits one father who works in finance. A teenager who lives in a wealthy London suburb also admits that she and her friends aren't looking for traditional summer jobs, instead preferring ad hoc babysitting or catering shifts which can slot around their holidays or movie marathons. US studies have shown that those who need these temporary jobs the most are the least likely to get them. Around 44pc of 16 to 19-year-olds from families earning $150,000 (£113,000) or more were employed between June and August 2023, according to official figures, compared with 27pc of teens from families earning less than $30,000. As the job pool for entry-level roles shrinks, those from top universities or with more experience are poised to benefit while thousands of others lose out. After a long, frustrating summer, concerns are growing for jobless teenagers. 'The danger we've got is children leaving school and looking for entry-level experience who are then potentially moving into long-term unemployment,' says Nicholls. 'We know that impacts their life chances. People are worried.'