An extraordinary shift in Israeli aggression, and the total redrawing of power in the Middle East
For Israel's critics, the attack was the inevitable consequence of the country's blockade of Gaza, occupation of the West Bank, and failure to resolve the Palestinian conflict through diplomatic concessions. Many Israelis have drawn the opposite conclusion: They believe that the October attack – the deadliest in Israeli history – stemmed from Israel's failure to pre-emptively and decisively defeat its enemies.
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'In the 20 years before October 7, we allowed threats to develop beyond our borders, trusting that our intelligence would give us prior warnings of any attack,' said Major General Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence.
'The trauma of October 7 completely changed that mindset and made us willing to take risks that we didn't take in the past,' Yadlin said. 'We will no longer wait to be attacked, and we will not wait to be surprised.'
The approach echoes Israel's strategic outlook in the early decades of its existence, when it often acted more swiftly and decisively to remove threats on its borders, Yadlin said. The clearest example was in June 1967, when Israel pre-emptively attacked Egypt after the Egyptian military moved troops toward the Israeli border.
'As Egypt massed troops on our southern border, we did not wait to be surprised,' Yadlin said. 'Now, we are reviving that doctrine.'
Israel's new approach is the culmination of months of reevaluation, during which the military's confidence - crushed by the failures of October 7 – was gradually restored.
While Israel's approach to Hamas was immediately wrathful, the country was initially wary of taking on Hezbollah and Iran. Netanyahu called off a pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah in the first week of the war in 2023, amid fears that Israel would struggle to maintain a multifront war against the Iran-led alliance.
For nearly a year, Israel fought only a low-level border conflict with Hezbollah. Despite increasing clashes with Iran in 2024, Israel limited its strikes on Iran to avoid an all-out conflict.
Israel's approach began to change in September, when a sequence of unexpected moves allowed Israel to decimate much of Hezbollah's senior leadership.
That increased Israel's confidence and prompted its leaders to order a more decisive assault on the group. Troops invaded southern Lebanon and the air force killed Hezbollah's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah.
Israel then severely weakened Iran's air defence systems and successfully repelled massive barrages of Iranian missiles, giving Israel greater confidence in its offensive and defensive abilities. More than a year after October 7, Israeli leaders finally concluded that they had a rare window of opportunity to mount a decisive blow against Iran's nuclear program.
Though Israel's new approach has undercut Iran's regional influence, it has done little to resolve Israel's oldest and most intractable problem: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In Gaza, Israel's retaliation has led to widespread destruction and bloodshed, reinstating a fearsome sense of Israeli might and reducing Hamas' threat for a generation.
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But the conflict has provided no clear long-term trajectory for either Gaza or the wider Palestinian question. Netanyahu has consistently ignored opportunities to end the war, balking at the idea of either leaving Hamas' remnants in charge or allowing other Palestinian groups to take over.
'Instead, we are left with only bad options,' said Tzipi Livni, a former Israeli foreign minister. 'Either occupation or chaos, rather than a diplomatic process involving moderate regional and Palestinian stakeholders that could change the reality on the ground for both Palestinians and Israelis.'
A similarly aimless dynamic could yet emerge in Iran, analysts said, if the Israeli leadership fails to clearly define its goals there and set an exit strategy.
For now, Israeli officials hope the United States will join the attack and help Israel destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities. If the US stays away, and if Iran refuses to stop the enrichment by choice, it is unclear whether Israel's forceful new doctrine will achieve the kind of game-changing outcomes that many Israelis desire.
'One wonders whether effective military performance is matched by a sober political vision,' said Nimrod Novik, a former senior Israeli official and a fellow at Israel Policy Forum, a research group in New York. 'Or, like in Gaza, we are left without an endgame. Time will tell.'
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The Advertiser
an hour ago
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Israel helping evacuate Australians amid Iran conflict
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Amid concerns the US could enter the conflict, about 1200 Australians in Israel have registered with the Department of Foreign Affairs for help to leave, while 1500 Australians and family members have sought help to leave Iran. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said a small group left Israel via a land crossing on Wednesday and that the department is looking for more ways to evacuate Australians. "Obviously, the situation on the ground is fluid," she told ABC News on Thursday. Evacuation was riskier in Iran, where the advice for Australians was to shelter in place if there was no opportunity to leave safely. The conflict began on Friday after Israel moved to wipe out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program, claiming the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. US President Donald Trump has since met his national security council and demanded that Iran unconditionally surrender, adding he knew where Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hiding. 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Israel's top diplomat in Australia said it was important to emphasise that the conflict with Iran was not about regime change. "It is not for the State of Israel to decide about the nature of the regime in Iran, it is for the Iranian people," he said. "We are focused on the military targets that were set." For Australian mother-of-three Emily Gian, life in the days since Israel launched strikes on Iran and triggered waves of missile fire in retaliation has been spent in and out of underground bunkers. "We could hear it so loud that my kids thought that it was near our house," Ms Gian told AAP on Wednesday. "It's a really loud boom. You feel the house shake." But unlike earlier conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, Ms Gian said the strikes from Iran came with the added fear that the nation was believed to be working on nuclear weapons. "There's always been a fear in Israel that an escalation with Iran is the ultimate and scariest escalation that could be," she said. But she won't flee. "Our plans are to stay here for now because we live here, our house is here, our life is here, our work," Ms Gian said. Melbourne lawyer Leon Zweir, who is in Jerusalem attending a conference, has registered with DFAT to be repatriated but will not leave until the event ends on Thursday. He said the mood of Israelis was "resolute", despite the missiles flying overhead. Amid concerns the US could enter the conflict, about 1200 Australians in Israel have registered with the Department of Foreign Affairs for help to leave, while 1500 Australians and family members have sought help to leave Iran. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said a small group left Israel via a land crossing on Wednesday and that the department is looking for more ways to evacuate Australians. "Obviously, the situation on the ground is fluid," she told ABC News on Thursday. Evacuation was riskier in Iran, where the advice for Australians was to shelter in place if there was no opportunity to leave safely. The conflict began on Friday after Israel moved to wipe out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program, claiming the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. US President Donald Trump has since met his national security council and demanded that Iran unconditionally surrender, adding he knew where Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hiding. Iran has warned of "all-out war" if the US joins the fray. Senator Wong said the Iranian regime threatened the stability of the Middle East. "It's time, beyond time for Iran to come back to the negotiating table, for Iran to agree to discontinue any nuclear program," she said. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, according to Washington-based group Human Rights Activists, while Israel said at least 24 civilians had been killed. Israel is helping Australia evacuate its citizens as its bombing campaign against Iran continues, the country's ambassador says. The first group of Australians fleeing the conflict crossed a land border out of Israel on Wednesday, assisted by the federal government. Israeli ambassador Amir Maimon said he was personally involved in the Australian government's efforts to get people out. "We are assisting the Australian government in every possible way," he told reporters on Thursday. Israel's top diplomat in Australia said it was important to emphasise that the conflict with Iran was not about regime change. "It is not for the State of Israel to decide about the nature of the regime in Iran, it is for the Iranian people," he said. "We are focused on the military targets that were set." For Australian mother-of-three Emily Gian, life in the days since Israel launched strikes on Iran and triggered waves of missile fire in retaliation has been spent in and out of underground bunkers. "We could hear it so loud that my kids thought that it was near our house," Ms Gian told AAP on Wednesday. "It's a really loud boom. You feel the house shake." But unlike earlier conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, Ms Gian said the strikes from Iran came with the added fear that the nation was believed to be working on nuclear weapons. "There's always been a fear in Israel that an escalation with Iran is the ultimate and scariest escalation that could be," she said. But she won't flee. "Our plans are to stay here for now because we live here, our house is here, our life is here, our work," Ms Gian said. Melbourne lawyer Leon Zweir, who is in Jerusalem attending a conference, has registered with DFAT to be repatriated but will not leave until the event ends on Thursday. He said the mood of Israelis was "resolute", despite the missiles flying overhead. Amid concerns the US could enter the conflict, about 1200 Australians in Israel have registered with the Department of Foreign Affairs for help to leave, while 1500 Australians and family members have sought help to leave Iran. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said a small group left Israel via a land crossing on Wednesday and that the department is looking for more ways to evacuate Australians. "Obviously, the situation on the ground is fluid," she told ABC News on Thursday. Evacuation was riskier in Iran, where the advice for Australians was to shelter in place if there was no opportunity to leave safely. The conflict began on Friday after Israel moved to wipe out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program, claiming the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. US President Donald Trump has since met his national security council and demanded that Iran unconditionally surrender, adding he knew where Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hiding. Iran has warned of "all-out war" if the US joins the fray. Senator Wong said the Iranian regime threatened the stability of the Middle East. "It's time, beyond time for Iran to come back to the negotiating table, for Iran to agree to discontinue any nuclear program," she said. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, according to Washington-based group Human Rights Activists, while Israel said at least 24 civilians had been killed. Israel is helping Australia evacuate its citizens as its bombing campaign against Iran continues, the country's ambassador says. The first group of Australians fleeing the conflict crossed a land border out of Israel on Wednesday, assisted by the federal government. Israeli ambassador Amir Maimon said he was personally involved in the Australian government's efforts to get people out. "We are assisting the Australian government in every possible way," he told reporters on Thursday. Israel's top diplomat in Australia said it was important to emphasise that the conflict with Iran was not about regime change. "It is not for the State of Israel to decide about the nature of the regime in Iran, it is for the Iranian people," he said. "We are focused on the military targets that were set." For Australian mother-of-three Emily Gian, life in the days since Israel launched strikes on Iran and triggered waves of missile fire in retaliation has been spent in and out of underground bunkers. "We could hear it so loud that my kids thought that it was near our house," Ms Gian told AAP on Wednesday. "It's a really loud boom. You feel the house shake." But unlike earlier conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, Ms Gian said the strikes from Iran came with the added fear that the nation was believed to be working on nuclear weapons. "There's always been a fear in Israel that an escalation with Iran is the ultimate and scariest escalation that could be," she said. But she won't flee. "Our plans are to stay here for now because we live here, our house is here, our life is here, our work," Ms Gian said. Melbourne lawyer Leon Zweir, who is in Jerusalem attending a conference, has registered with DFAT to be repatriated but will not leave until the event ends on Thursday. He said the mood of Israelis was "resolute", despite the missiles flying overhead. Amid concerns the US could enter the conflict, about 1200 Australians in Israel have registered with the Department of Foreign Affairs for help to leave, while 1500 Australians and family members have sought help to leave Iran. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said a small group left Israel via a land crossing on Wednesday and that the department is looking for more ways to evacuate Australians. "Obviously, the situation on the ground is fluid," she told ABC News on Thursday. Evacuation was riskier in Iran, where the advice for Australians was to shelter in place if there was no opportunity to leave safely. The conflict began on Friday after Israel moved to wipe out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program, claiming the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. US President Donald Trump has since met his national security council and demanded that Iran unconditionally surrender, adding he knew where Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hiding. Iran has warned of "all-out war" if the US joins the fray. Senator Wong said the Iranian regime threatened the stability of the Middle East. "It's time, beyond time for Iran to come back to the negotiating table, for Iran to agree to discontinue any nuclear program," she said. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, according to Washington-based group Human Rights Activists, while Israel said at least 24 civilians had been killed.
West Australian
3 hours ago
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Israel-Iran war: IDF strikes at least 20 military sites using fighter jets as conflict intensifies
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The view from isolation: Amid the relentless ill tidings, at least the faithless fairy wrens make sense
The United States, having given itself over to the absurdly erratic Donald Trump and his cabinet of lickspittles, was proving it could no longer be counted on for almost any major decision that lasted more than a blink. Loading Tariffs in Trump's hands had become a global pea-and-thimble trick. His promise to bring international peace was proving not worth an Israeli shekel, a Gazan child's life, a Ukrainian hryvnia, a Russian rouble or now, an Iranian rial. His latest effort, to demand via text on his Truth Social the ' unconditional surrender ' of Iran, came barely a nanosecond after indicating he wanted to stay out of the Israel-Iran mess. Oh, and who might have imagined, before it came to pass, a president deploying 4000 National Guard troops and 700 US Marines to quell what were relatively low-level protests by civilians against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) brutes? Why, it was only a few months ago Trump himself had pardoned all those who had been indicted or found guilty of attacking the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. Unsurprisingly, polling by the Australian foreign affairs think tank the Lowy Institute revealed this week that almost two-thirds of Australians now hold little to no trust in the United States to act responsibly in world affairs. The only surprise is that 36 per cent of Australians still hold some form of trust in the Trump outfit. Watching the fairy wrens bobbing around the lawn, I recalled my first trip overseas, a study tour to the US in the 1970s. I stayed with a series of hosts who proved unfailingly hospitable and generous. A couple of my American hosts tried to persuade me that the disgraced ex-president Richard Nixon wasn't really a bad person, and was the victim of a witch hunt. We cordially agreed to disagree, and I never once felt that expressing a view could get me into any sort of strife. Free speech seemed genuinely treasured, and the perspectives of those from across the oceans seemed welcome. It was, I reflected, so very long ago. What had happened to those mild Americans of half a century ago? Muttering something unkind about Trump these days could get you deported or worse, your university could lose its funding or your law firm could be locked out of government contracts. While I pondered the menace in these developments, Trump's defence secretary, the greasy-haired ex-Fox News host Pete Hegseth – who would barely appear out of place in the sales office of a backstreet used-car yard – was hectoring Australia over its defence expenditure. We may, of course, need to seriously review our defence capabilities, and it's nothing new for the US to press us on the military's share of GDP. Back in 2013, Richard Armitage, the former deputy secretary of state in the George W. Bush administration, called Australia's defence spending inadequate and accused Australia of wanting a free ride on the US. Armitage, however, was a serious man of vast experience. Is there any pressing reason we should listen to a fellow like Hegseth, who is so lacking in smarts that he was caught out sharing on a leaky chat group the details of a US strike on Yemen? Why, this defence secretary couldn't organise America's immense military machine to turn on a stupendously expensive birthday parade for Trump that was much more than a sad-sack march-past. As for Australia's spending, did Hegseth even send a receipt for our $500 million down payment this year on the $3 billion Australia has promised to prop up the US' submarine industry? Has an acronym ever sounded quite as ugly as AUKUS? Back home, what was supposed to be Australia's federal opposition – having been eviscerated at the recent election after its brains trust thought it was smart to assume a MAGA-lite approach – was meaninglessly splitting itself asunder before hurrying back to a shaky coupling of convenience. Even closer, what is supposed to be the Victorian Liberal Party was tearing itself to shreds. Again. The forces for and against offering bankruptcy relief to former leader John Pesutto, spurred by factional hatreds old and new, were still furiously facing off at the time of writing.
