Russian Media Outlet Iran.ru: 'A Military Crisis Or Increased External Threats Against Iran' Would Have 'Profound' Consequences For China And Russia

Memri

a day ago

On August 5, 2025, the Russian media outlet Iran.ru[1] published an article, titled "Consequences of a Potential Military Conflict with Iran for Russia and China," by Mohammad Hossein Masumzadeh, senior research fellow at the Iran-based Governance and Policy Think Tank (GPTT).
The article argues that a military crisis or increased external threats against Iran would have profound and many-sided consequences for both China and Russia. "The loss of a key strategic partner would weaken their regional influence and geopolitical leverage over the West. Key energy and transit routes would be disrupted, instability would grow in neighboring regions, and both countries would face significant threats to their economic interests and security," the article noted.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (in the center) with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi in Beijing, China, March 14, 2025, during the talks on the Iranian nuclear issue. (Source: the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs).[2]
Below is Iran.ru's article:[3]
"This Informal But Vital Partnership Is Based On Shared Goals"
"The strategic cooperation between Russia, China, and Iran, often referred to by Western powers as the 'axis of instability,' has become an important counterweight to Western influence, especially to the United States. This informal but vital partnership is based on shared goals: countering American unipolarity, protecting national sovereignty, and expanding influence in strategic regions.
"Thanks to the country's strategic location and vast energy resources, Iran comes forward as a key element in this axis, serving as a vital ally for Russia and an important energy and transit hub for China. Both Russia and China promote Iran's integration into [international] structures such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, perceiving it as a bulwark against Western sanctions. Therefore, provided Iran is drawn into a military conflict or faces increased external threats, especially from the West or as a result of regional conflicts, this could significantly upset the global and regional balance of power, which would have serious consequences for both Russia and China."
"Iran Is A 'Key Gateway' For China's Belt And Road Initiative"
"A military crisis or growing external threats to Iran could pose significant risks to China's economic and strategic interests. Despite its close economic ties with the West and Israel, China prefers diplomatic and political support for Iran to direct military intervention. Iran plays a key role in ensuring China's energy security, supplying about 90 percent of its exported crude oil to the PRC. In 2025, average supplies [volume] will range from 1.4 to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), reaching a peak of 1.8 million bpd in June 2025.
"These supplies with a discount, made possible by Western sanctions, are extremely important for China, the world's largest oil importer. A crisis in Iran will disrupt this vital supply chain, prompting China to seek more expensive or less reliable alternatives, which could potentially slow its economic growth. In addition, non-oil trade between Iran and China, which amounted to $32.3 billion in 2024, will face serious restrictions.
"Iran is a 'key gateway' for China's Belt and Road Initiative (B&R), facilitating a connection to markets in Europe and West Asia. A military crisis or external threats disrupting Iran's transport and energy corridors would jeopardize China's major infrastructure projects and vital logistics routes to the West.
"Events such as Israel's strike on Iranian military and nuclear facilities in June of 2025 could further undermine strategic projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The 'Middle Corridor' (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route), which comes as an alternative to routes running through Iran or Russia, has a number of infrastructure limitations, including limited capacity, making it an unsuitable replacement for Iran within China's Belt and Road Initiative.
"Geopolitics-wise, the crisis in Iran would undermine China's diplomatic authority, especially after its successful mediation in Iran and Saudi Arabia rapprochement in March of 2023. It will also jeopardize China's strategic autonomy in securing energy and logistics routes, increasing its vulnerability to external pressure, especially in such narrow points as the Strait of Malacca, which remains under notable US influence. This would weaken China's stance in the region and globally, giving the West an opportunity to strengthen its position and possibly to shift its focus towards a direct confrontation with China."
"A Crisis In Iran Will Weaken Russia's Ability To Maintain Its Influence In The Region"
"For Russia, a military crisis or external threats targeting Iran would have far-reaching consequences, affecting its geopolitical influence, economic stability, and security interests. A crisis in Iran will weaken Russia's ability to maintain its influence in the region, which could create a power vacuum that rivals such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia could make use of. In the worst-case scenario, under a serious escalation of the conflict, growing instability, inter-ethnic tensions, or a refugee crisis, the situation could spread to Central Asia and the Caucasus, which in turn increases the risks of terrorism, migration, and anti-Russian sentiment in these critically important regions.
"Economy-wise, while Russia, being a major oil exporter, may temporarily benefit from an increase in global oil prices due to supply disruptions from Iran, long-term market volatility will undermine OPEC+ cooperation on oil production and price stabilization. Iran is also perceived as a market for Russian arms, and the crisis will likely reduce demand for Russian military exports, which will affect the country's defense industry. In addition, Iran provides Russia with access to Asian markets, in particular India, through [its] transportation corridors.
"The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects Russia, Iran, and India, is a cornerstone of Russia's strategy to diversify trade routes and reduce dependence on routes controlled by the West. The crisis in Iran would threaten feasibility of the INSTC by disrupting Russia's access to markets of the South Asia and exacerbating problems associated with the sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine. A direct conflict involving Iran could further reduce the security of these routes and block Russian exports.
"In terms of politics, Iran serves as a geopolitical buffer protecting against Western pressure, especially in the context of the Ukrainian conflict. The crisis in Iran will encourage the West, which could increase Russia's isolation and weaken its rhetoric against Western imperialism."
The "Geopolitical Leverages Over The West"
"In conclusion, let's note that a military crisis or increased external threats against Iran would have profound and many-sided consequences for both China and Russia. The loss of a key strategic partner would weaken their regional influence and geopolitical leverages over the West. Key energy and transit routes would be disrupted, instability would grow in neighboring regions, and both countries would face significant threats to their economic interests and security.
"The 'axis' would be seriously weakened, which will create opportunities for the West to expand its influence. Provided the U.S. manages to deal with the challenge posed by Iran, it will be able to divert resources to a more direct confrontation with China and Russia, wherein Russia will face an additional threat in the form of increased NATO pressure, especially in the context of resumed support for Ukraine on part of the West. This scenario will prompt both countries to rethink their geopolitical and economic strategies and face significant obstacles to maintaining strategic balance and global influence."