Vaccine roll outs cut deaths and infections by 60% says study
Researchers say this is the first comprehensive study to assess the impact of emergency vaccination programmes in response to the outbreak of five infectious diseases – Ebola, measles, cholera, yellow fever and meningitis. They studied 210 different incidents from 2000 to 2023, covering 49 different countries. The vaccine roll-outs seem to have had an impressive impact, reducing deaths by nearly 60%.The number of overall cases of theses infections were also reduced by nearly 60%.The swift deployment of vaccines also appears to have halted wider outbreaks.There were economic benefits too – worth an estimated $32 billion. These benefits come mainly from averting deaths and years of life lost to disability.But researchers believe this could be a significant underestimate of overall savings, as it doesn't take into account the costs of dealing with a wider outbreak, or the economic disruption caused by a more serious health emergency. It's believed the 2014 Ebola outbreak, which occurred before the existence of an approved vaccine, is estimated to have cost West African countries alone more than $53 billion.
The power of vaccines
The study was backed by Gavi, the vaccine alliance, which was responsible for many of the programmes. Dr Sania Nishtar, the organisation's CEO, says the study shows just how important quick and effective vaccine roll-outs can be."For the first time, we are able to comprehensively quantify the benefit, in human and economic terms, of deploying vaccines against outbreaks of some of the deadliest infectious diseases."This study demonstrates clearly the power of vaccines as a cost-effective counter-measure to the increasing risk the world faces from outbreaks. "It also underscores the importance of fully funding Gavi, so it can continue to protect communities in the next five years to come."Gavi is currently trying to secure a fresh round of funding in the face of global cuts to foreign aid.
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Daily Mail
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Mysterious blobs deep inside Earth may fuel deadly volcanic eruptions - with the capability of wiping out life as we know it
Explosive volcanic eruptions don't just damage property and cancel flights. They can kill hundreds or even thousands of people, burying them under lethal 'pyroclastic' flows. Now, scientists in Australia have identified a possible cause of gigantic volcanic eruptions – mysterious 'blobs' about 1,200 miles under our feet. Blobs are three-dimensional regions that span the length of continents and stretch 100 times higher than Mount Everest. They sit at the bottom of Earth's rocky mantle above the molten outer core – a place so deep that Earth's elements are squeezed beyond recognition. And they're a starting point for plumes of hot molten rock which flow upwards towards the Earth's surface. There they erupt as lava, gases and rock fragments – with the capability of wiping out life as we know it. The authors warn that giant, large-scale eruptions can have serious impacts, such as sudden climate change and mass extinction events. 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For their study, the team used computer modeling to simulate 'mantle convection' – the movement of material in Earth's mantle powered by heat – over one billion years. Blobs, which are some 1,200 miles below Earth's surface, move over time and are connected to Earth's surface by 'mantle plumes' that create giant eruptions How do scientists know about Earth's interior? No one can see inside the Earth, nor can drill deep enough to take rock samples from the mantle, the layer between Earth's core and crust. So geophysicists use indirect methods to see what's going on deep beneath our feet. For example, they use seismograms, or earthquake recordings, to determine the speed at which earthquake waves propagate. They then use this information to calculate the internal structure of the Earth - similar to how doctors use ultrasound to see inside the body. Their findings suggest that mantle plumes – columns of hot molten rock in the mantle – rise up from the continent-sized blobs. Mantle plumes are shaped a bit like a lollipop sticking upwards – with the 'stick' the plume tail and the 'candy' nearer Earth's surface the plume head. The researchers found that locations of volcanic eruption fall either onto (or close to) the location of blobs, as predicted by their models. This suggests that blobs – an acronym standing for Big LOwer-mantle Basal Structures – are essentially the deep-Earth origin of volcanic eruptions. Typically, deep Earth motions are in the order of 0.4-inch (1 cm) per year, so they only become significant over tens of millions of years. Blobs probably shift in a year at roughly the rate at which human hair grows each month, the team say. Although they have possibly existed for hundreds of millions of years, it's unclear what causes their movement. Mantle plumes rise very slowly from blobs through the mantle because they transport hot solid rock, not melt or lava. Cotopaxi, one of the highest active volcano in the world, stands at 19,347 feet (5,897 metres). Historically, its activity started in 1534 when the Spanish conquistadors began to venture into the territories that are now Ecuador At lower pressures in the uppermost 125 miles (200 km) of Earth's mantle, the solid rock melts, leading to volcanic eruptions. 'We used statistics to show that the locations of past giant volcanic eruptions are significantly related to the mantle plumes predicted by our models,' explain the authors in a piece for The Conversation. 'This is encouraging, as it suggests that the simulations predict mantle plumes in places and at times generally consistent with the geologic record.' The new findings, published in Communications Earth and Environment, suggest that the deep Earth is even more dynamic than we realised. Future research aims to explore the chemical nature of blobs, which might be possible with simulations that track the evolution of their composition. HOW CAN RESEARCHERS PREDICT VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS? According to Eric Dunham, an associate professor of Stanford University's School of Earth, energy and Environmental Sciences, 'Volcanoes are complicated and there is currently no universally applicable means of predicting eruption. In all likelihood, there never will be.' However, there are indicators of increased volcanic activity, which researchers can use to help predict volcanic eruptions. Researchers can track indicators such as: Volcanic infrasound: When the lava lake rises up in the crater of an open vent volcano, a sign of a potential eruption, the pitch or frequency of the sounds generated by the magma tends to increase. Seismic activity: Ahead of an eruption, seismic activity in the form of small earthquakes and tremors almost always increases as magma moves through the volcano's 'plumbing system'. Gas emissions: As magma nears the surface and pressure decreases, gases escape. Sulfur dioxide is one of the main components of volcanic gases, and increasing amounts of it are a sign of increasing amounts of magma near the surface of a volcano. Ground deformation: Changes to a volcano's ground surface (volcano deformation) appear as swelling, sinking, or cracking, which can be caused by magma, gas, or other fluids (usually water) moving underground or by movements in the Earth's crust due to motion along fault lines. Swelling of a volcano cans signal that magma has accumulated near the surface.
