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IMF mission to arrive in Pakistan on March 3 for review talks

IMF mission to arrive in Pakistan on March 3 for review talks

Express Tribune25-02-2025
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A nine-member International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Nathan Porter, is set to arrive in Pakistan on March 3 to conduct a crucial economic review.
The talks will continue until March 15 and will play a key role in shaping the country's 2025-26 fiscal policies.
According to finance ministry sources, the negotiations will be held in two phases—technical-level discussions followed by policy-level talks.
The mission will engage with officials from the finance ministry, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), among others.
A key issue on the agenda is tax relief for the salaried class, which sources say remains conditional on IMF approval.
The review will also assess Pakistan's budgetary framework, fiscal consolidation efforts, and revenue generation measures.
Additionally, separate discussions will be held with all four provinces to align fiscal targets.
Pakistan's economic policies, including taxation, energy pricing, and structural reforms, are expected to be scrutinised closely by the IMF before any further financial commitments are made.
Previously, a technical delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has arrived in Islamabad to discuss climate financing and related policy measures with Pakistani officials on Monday.
According to sources, the four-member IMF team will engage in talks with federal and provincial authorities to review climate funding strategies, including green budgeting and tracking mechanisms.
The discussions, set to run until February 28, aim to assess Pakistan's progress on climate adaptation and financing.
One key agenda item is the proposed introduction of a carbon levy in the federal budget for the 2025-26 fiscal year.
The IMF will present recommendations on its implementation and framework.
The negotiations will also cover subsidies, electric vehicles, and the expansion of green budgeting. Officials are expected to provide briefings on Pakistan's current climate initiatives and future plans.
The IMF delegation's visit is part of broader efforts to align Pakistan's financial policies with global climate commitments, ensuring sustainable economic reforms.
Moreover, the IMF has announced that its review mission will visit Pakistan to negotiate the next tranche of the $7 billion loan, with discussions also set to focus on climate financing.
The IMF delegation is scheduled to arrive in Pakistan in early March to conduct the first review of the ongoing loan programme.
According to IMF's representative in Pakistan, Maahir Binesi, the delegation will engage in talks regarding the next installment of the loan and will also review the technical aspects of climate financing at Pakistan's request.
Finance Minister Aurangzeb had earlier said that Pakistan expects $1-1.5 billion in climate funding from the global lender.
Last month, the IMF held meetings with officials from the Auditor General of Pakistan (AGP), the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) to conduct a governance and corruption assessment.
Sources revealed that the IMF mission was briefed on transparency and the audit process in the public sector. The mission was informed that Parliament serves as the highest forum for audit and accountability in the public sector.
Additionally, the opposition has the authority to audit government institutions, with the head of the Public Accounts Committee being nominated by the Leader of the Opposition.
FBR officials provided a briefing on digitalisation and tax reforms aimed at ensuring transparency in the tax system. Meanwhile, SECP representatives apprised the IMF about measures taken to enhance the ease of doing business in the stock market and corporate sector.
The IMF mission also held meetings with officials from the Ministry of Climate Change and the Ministry of Housing and Works.
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NBP's BCA captures the improving operating conditions, and the bank's strong deposit-funded profile and enhanced earnings generation capacity, with net income making 1.3% of tangible assets during the first quarter of 2025, despite previous challenges from one-off litigation expenses. However, the bank's adjusted capital buffers remain modest—particularly when Pakistani government securities are risk-weighted at 150%. Its significant exposure to the sovereign also underscores the bank's elevated asset risk, as reflected in its reported NPLs, which stood at 14.2% as of March 2025—significantly above the sector average. The bank's deposit ratings continue to incorporate one notch of government support uplift, based on our assessment of a very high probability of government support, driven by the bank's systemic importance and large market share of deposits, 75% government ownership (through Pakistan Sovereign Wealth Fund) and track record of government support. Moody's upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of HBL to caa1 from caa2, as well as the bank's long-term deposit ratings to Caa1 from Caa2. HBL's BCA captures the improving operating conditions, the bank's good liquidity buffers, strong deposit-funded profile and solid asset quality position, reflected by its 5.3% reported NPLs as of March 2025; but also the high asset risks, given the bank's high exposure to government securities that links its credit profile to that of the government, as well as its modest adjusted capital buffers, with tangible common equity representing 5.7% of adjusted risk weighted assets as of March 2025. The upgrade of the long-term deposit ratings to Caa1 reflects the BCA upgrade and our assessment of a very high probability of government support, which results in no uplift as the bank's caa1 BCA is at the same level as Pakistan's long-term issuer rating of Caa1. 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Moody's upgraded the BCA and the Adjusted BCA of MCB to caa1 from caa2 and the long-term deposit ratings to Caa1 from Caa2. MCB's ratings capture the improving operating environment, the bank's strong profitability with a return on assets of 1.7% during the first quarter of 2025, stable deposit base and good liquidity buffers; but also its high asset risks, modest adjusted capitalisation metrics with tangible common equity representing 5.7% of the adjusted risk weighted assets as of March 2025, and its high exposure to government securities that links its credit profile to that of the government. The upgrade of the long-term deposit ratings to Caa1 reflects the BCA upgrade and our assessment of a high probability of government support, which results in no uplift as the bank's caa1 BCA is at the same level as Pakistan's long-term issuer rating of Caa1. Moody's upgraded the BCA and Adjusted BCA of ABL to caa1 from caa2 and the long-term deposit ratings to Caa1 from Caa2. ABL's ratings capture the improving operating environment, the bank's relatively low stock of problem loans reflected by the 1.6% reported NPLs as of March 2025, well below the system average, stable deposit-based funding and ample liquid buffers; but also its modest adjusted capital buffers, and its high exposure to government securities that links its credit profile to that of the government. BCA also pushed up: Moody's upgrades Wapda's CFR to Caa2 The upgrade of the long-term deposit ratings to Caa1 reflects the BCA upgrade and our assessment of a high probability of government support, which results in no uplift as the bank's caa1 BCA is at the same level as Pakistan's long-term issuer rating of Caa1. Pakistani banks' ratings could be upgraded following a material strengthening of the operating environment and in the government's credit profile, and provided that the banks maintain their resilient financial performance. Pakistani banks' ratings could be downgraded if (1) Pakistan's sovereign rating of Caa1 is downgraded; and/or (2) there is a deterioration in the banks' financial performance, specifically asset quality, profitability and capital adequacy.

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