Thug Life banned in Karnataka - what does it mean for film's box office
Kamal Haasan's 'Thug Life', Tamil cinema's next big offering, is gearing up for a grand release on June 5. The film has been making noise across the country, but for all the wrong reasons. At the audio launch of the Mani Ratnam directorial, the actor said 'Kannada was born out of Tamil', which snowballed into a controversy around language. This resulted in the film's ban in Karnataka.advertisementWith just a few hours to go for the film's release, will this move by producer Kamal Haasan affect the box office prospects? India Today Digital exclusively spoke to trade experts to weigh in on the film's box office performance.NO KARNATAKA RELEASE - WHAT DOES IT MEAN?The Karnataka Film Chamber of Commerce (KFCC) said that they would stand in solidarity with the pro-Kannada groups protesting against Kamal Haasan and 'Thug Life', and imposed a ban. They also demanded Haasan's apology. Be it in a letter addressed to KFCC President, Mr Narasimhalu, or the High Court judge, the actor remained defiant.
While it was a courageous decision to stall the release of 'Thug Life' in Karnataka, trade experts predict that the decision will affect the film. Speaking exclusively to India Today Digital, trade analyst Ramesh Bala, said, "'Thug Life' is likely to incur a loss of nearly Rs 20 to Rs 25 crore in Karnataka. Films like Rajinikanth's 'Jailer' and Thalapathi Vijay's 'Leo' did Rs 40-50 crore in the state. Even an average performing Tamil film will rake in Rs 20-25 crore. Hence, the film will lose that contribution. " advertisementBala also acknowledged that 'Thug Life's' advance booking kicked off on a soft note. "The Mani Ratnam-Kamal Haasan combo will attract people to the theatres. However, word of mouth will play a huge role in making 'Thug Life' a super hit," he added.Popular trade analyst Sreedhar Pillai predicted a minimum of Rs 10-12 crore loss in revenue because of the ban in Karnataka. "The ban in Karnataka will affect the revenue of the film. Tamil films do have a solid market in Karnataka, hence this move might cause a small dent in the box office numbers."Bala raised an important point: "For many leading stars in Tamil cinema, Karnataka is the second-biggest market in Tamil Nadu. Theatres are more in number in Bengaluru and the Tamil population is more in the state as well. This is one of the reasons why Tamil films run well at the box office."WILL 'THUG LIFE' MATCH THE MAGIC OF 'VIKRAM'?Kamal Haasan's 'Vikram', directed by Lokesh Kanagaraj, scripted history by earning over Rs 430 crore at the box office worldwide. Will 'Thug Life', which brings together an ensemble cast including Kamal Haasan, Silambarasan, Trisha Krishnan, Joju George and others, be able to beat 'Vikram'?advertisement"On paper, yes," said Ramesh Bala, adding, "With the star cast and the reunion of Kamal Haasan and Mani Ratnam, the film has great potential. Further, fans are expecting to see yet another 'Nayakan' from the duo. So, it has ticked all parameters to strike big. But, everything depends on word of mouth. 'Vikram' had a great word of mouth."Sreedhar Pillai said that 'Thug Life' will have a bumper opening at the box office since there was no opposition at the box office. "In Tamil Nadu, it will collect Rs 20-25 crore. "Uniformly, the shows in India will begin at 9 am with early morning shows in US and Dubai," he stated. Calling Kamal Haasan and Mani Ratnam urban legends, Pillai said, "In the US, it will easily make $1 million. In Tamil Nadu, the majority of the collection will depend on 3Cs - Chennai, Coimbatore and Chengalpet. These are the strong areas and if the word of mouth is good, then there's no stopping 'Thug Life'," he said.Ramesh Bala predicted Rs 40 to Rs 50 crore in India, with Rs 75 crore worldwide. "There is expectation that it will have the 'Nayakan' magic. Hopefully, if everything comes together, then 'Thug Life' will soar higher," he remarked.advertisementWILL TRUMP'S 100% TARIFF AND SLASH IN TN LOCAL BODY TAX AFFECT THE FILM?The US President, Donald Trump, announced a 100 per cent tariff on foreign film production in the country. 'Thug Life', which has kickstarted its pre-sales on a promising note, could be at the receiving end.Bala said that the rule isn't operational yet. "It shouldn't affect 'Thug Life' yet. Even if it is, it shouldn't affect the gross collection," he added.Meanwhile, the Tamil Nadu government slashed Local Body Entertainment Tax (LBET) from 8.6 per cent to 4 per cent. Ramesh Bala remarked, "Some theatres are passing this cut to the audience, which means there will be a small cut. However, some theatres are keeping the base price of the ticket to Rs 190 crore and taking the tax cut while paying the government. Because of LBET cut, the film might collect be Rs 1-2 crore less than before."'Thug Life' is poised to set a strong opening compared to Haasan's last release, 'Indian 2'. If the film manages to secure positive word of mouth, then 'Thug Life' will create history.Tune InMust Watch
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