March Madness picks: Midwest women's teams you should (and shouldn't) bet on

Axios

18-03-2025

The NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament begins Wednesday night, and sports fans across the country are rushing to get their brackets filled out before the big dance.
We've tapped our Axios Midwest colleagues to help.
Here are some quick arguments for why you should (and shouldn't) pick your favorite team to go all the way this March:
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Why to pick 'em: It will be the debut NCAA Tournament game for the Arkansas State women's team, so they'll hit the court with a single-minded mission — win, writes Axios NW Arkansas' Worth Sparkman.
Why not to pick 'em: The game will be played in Connecticut, so UConn has the home advantage.
Ball State Cardinals
Why to pick 'em: The Cardinals are coming in hot, winning their last seven games to secure the Mid-American Conference regular season and tournament titles, writes Axios Indianapolis' Justin Mack.
Why not to pick 'em: This is just the second time the Ball State women's team has made it to the NCAA Tournament and their first invite in 16 years.
That intriguing stat makes them even more of a longshot.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Why to pick 'em: The Illini are having a record year, writes Axios Chicago's Justin Kaufmann.
Their 21 regular season wins are the most ever and they return to the first round of the tournament for the first time since 2003.
Why not to pick 'em: They got bounced quickly in the Big Ten Tournament and if they get past Creighton in the first round, they'll have to face the No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Why to pick 'em: The Hawkeyes lost the last two national championships, so winning the natty this year with first-year coach Jan Jensen and without generational star Caitlin Clark would be completely unexpected, writes Axios' Everett Cook.
Why not to pick 'em: Clark was a 2x National Player of the Year who averaged 31 points per game her senior year and constantly bailed the Hawkeyes out when they needed a bucket — and she is not walking back through that door.
Iowa State Cyclones
Why to pick 'em: Audi Crooks is a force in the paint who is unguardable against certain teams, writes Axios' Everett Cook.
Why not to pick 'em: Being dependent on one player to score could make the Cyclones one-dimensional against good teams.
Indiana Hoosiers
Why to pick 'em: This is the Hoosiers' sixth straight NCAA tournament appearance, and they made it to at least the Sweet Sixteen three of those years, writes Axios' Lindsey Erdody.
Why not to pick 'em: This is not the same team as previous years after losing several star players. Their 19 wins this season is the lowest since the 2014-2015 season.
Michigan Wolverines
Why to pick 'em: Freshman Syla Swords leads a trio of freshmen that propelled the Wolverines to a better season than expected with only one starter returning from last year's team, writes Axios Detroit's Joe Guillen.
Why not to pick 'em: Michigan was tested against one of the country's best teams in USC during the Big Ten Tournament and lost, 82-70.
Michigan State Spartans
Why to pick 'em: Second-year coach Robyn Fralick led MSU to its highest tournament seed since they were No. 2 in 2016, writes Axios Detroit's Joe Guillen.
The Spartans' draw isn't the worst — they avoided a potential second-round matchup against UConn.
Why not to pick 'em: Michigan State enters the tournament in middling form, losing six of their last 10 games.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Why to pick 'em: A disappointing 3 seed should give this stellar team — that went on a 19-game winning streak and was ranked in the top 5 for much of the season — something to prove, writes Axios Indianapolis' Arika Herron.
First- and second-round games at home don't hurt, either.
Why not to pick 'em: Luck hasn't exactly been with the Irish as of late. They're in a bit of a slump, dropping three of their last five games and failing to make the ACC tournament final.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Why to pick 'em: Led by Cotie McMahon and Jaloni Cambridge, the Buckeyes have been consistent and have largely beaten the teams they're supposed to en route to a 25-6 record, writes Axios Columbus' Andrew King.
Why not to pick 'em: They've struggled against top opponents.