What can Florida expect as Invest 93L crosses state, even if it doesn't become tropical storm?
As is moves into the Gulf, the National Hurricane Center said it has the potential of strengthening into a tropical depression.
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Most spaghetti models on July 15 show the system moving north after it enters the Gulf, with AccuWeather forecasters predicting a possible landfall July 17 Louisiana.
The next named storm of the season will be Dexter.
Satellite and radar data indicate the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the system of low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized, according to the 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula July 15 and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday, July 16.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf.Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week.
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
National Weather Service offices around Florida warned on X it was still too early to determine specifics about the track, strength or impacts from Invest 93L and advised residents to monitor forecasts for the latest updates.
"Regardless of any further development, associated thunderstorm activity and plentiful tropical moisture will bring the threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding to Florida, with a slight risk in place for the central Peninsula Tuesday," the National Weather Service said.
"Increasing thunderstorm chances will shift westward with the low along the central Gulf Coast Wednesday (July 16) with additional isolated instances of flash flooding possible."
Pensacola, western Panhandle: Heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns by mid to late week with a high risk of rip currents expected by Thursday. Local impacts will depend on whether this system stays near the coast or out over the Gulf.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Rain chances ramp up Wednesday and Thursday regardless of development
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Low pressure off of the Florida East Coast will move onshore later this morning/early afternoon and track west across the peninsula. Precipitation along the coast this morning will spread inland with heavy rain. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday expected, with locally higher amounts of 4-plus inches in spots that receive heavy rainfall multiple days in a row.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region again today as the tropical disturbance begins to cross the Florida Peninsula. An isolated severe storm or two will be possible. An isolated severe storm is possible, along with strong wind gusts.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today, but mainly during this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall with flooding in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas possible, along with gusty winds up to 50 mph
Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 109. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7 a.m. High near 91. Heat index values as high as 105. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
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A heat advisory is in effect from 11 a.m. until 8 p.m. July 15. Heat index values around 108 are expected across portions the the Big Bend and Florida Panhandle.
Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 96. Heat index values as high as 109. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m. High near 88. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 90. South wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 91. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 101. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 91. Heat index values as high as 103. South wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms
Thursday: A slight chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11 a.m. Sunny, with a high near 92. South wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely before noon, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 4 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4 p.m. High near 85. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 88. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 88. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High near 87. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 89. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11 a.m. High near 89. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday: A slight chance of thunderstorms, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 88. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 90. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 a.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m. High near 90. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m. High near 83. South wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 a.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind around 14 mph.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5 p.m. High near 85. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m. High near 88. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 a.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East wind 8 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. High near 88. South wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 91. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. East southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. High near 87. Heat index values as high as 98. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. High near 87. Breezy, with a south wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 89. South wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. East southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High near 87. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible
Wednesday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 91. South southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 91. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday: A slight chance of thunderstorms, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 8 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Florida weather forecast, radar. Invest 93L impacts rain, flooding
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