
Israel-Iran war: Back from the brink of an oil shock?
From the show
This week, Charles Pellegrin takes a look back at what's being called "the Twelve-Day War" with Dr Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. The confrontation between Israel and Iran with the assistance of the United States has weighed on global markets, sending oil prices surging amid concerns that oil supply could be heavily disrupted. But those fears have been – at least temporarily – cast aside after a fragile ceasefire was announced by US President Donald Trump. So what happens now?

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France 24
03-08-2025
- France 24
Eight OPEC+ countries raise production by 547,000 bpd
Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, along with the Saudis and Russians -- together nicknamed the Voluntary Eight (V8) -- currently produce about 41-42 million barrels a day, so the increase is about 1.5 percent. Analysts said there was unlikely to be a major impact on prices, with the Brent reference oil currently selling at about $70 a barrel. "The eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 from August 2025 required production level," said a statement released after a meeting where the hike was agreed. The eight key producers, who started increasing production in April, affirmed their commitment to market stability on "current healthy oil market fundamentals," an OPEC statement read. Oil prices have held up better than observers anticipated amid strong summer demand and a high geopolitical risk premium, notably owing to conflict between Iran and Israel. "OPEC+ has passed the first test -- unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day (since April) without crashing prices or compromising unity," said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy. "But the next task will be even harder: deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while navigating geopolitical tension and preserving cohesion," said Leon. 'Low oil inventories' The post-meeting statement said the decision came "in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories." The OPEC+ countries agreed in December to start a gradual return from last April of the 2.2 million barrels per day of previous production cuts. The latest move, a year ahead of an initial 18-month schedule, completes the unwinding and also provides for a 300,000 barrels per day tranche granted specifically to the United Arab Emirates. The statement said that "the phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions". The eight added that they will hold monthly meetings for a regular review of market conditions. For now, the return of other production cuts is to be discussed at the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting at the end of November, with all 22 members. But OPEC said the V8 will first meet on September 7. In a bid to boost prices, the wider OPEC+ group -- comprising the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies -- in recent years had agreed to three different tranches of output cuts, amounting to almost six million bpd in total. 'Avoid sharp drop' After a long period of producers seeking to combat price erosion by implementing production cuts to make oil scarcer, recent months have seen a shift in strategy. Prior to the announcement, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo had suggested the quota increase was "largely priced in" on energy markets. What happens over the next few months is less certain but ING's Warren Patterson said that the "base scenario" will see the V8 pause output hikes for the time being. For Patterson, a significant surplus may well emerge from the fourth quarter of this year, which OPEC+ would have to manage carefully. "The alliance is striving to find a balance between regaining market share and avoiding a sharp drop in oil prices," so as not to wipe out its profits, said Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates. Market experts warn that forecasting is particularly challenging given the uncertainty emanating from US President Donald Trump's tariffs policy and its effects on global trade, as well as his 10-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

LeMonde
25-07-2025
- LeMonde
Iran nuclear talks: Europeans bet on 'snapback' threat to bring Tehran back in line
Iran displays the utmost indifference in front of them. However, by wielding the threat of massive sanctions, French diplomats believe they and their German and British partners in the E3 group hold a trump card, a lever capable of steering Tehran back toward oversight of its nuclear program. Since the "12-Day War," during which Israel, with US support, attempted to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities between June 13 and 25, the Islamic Republic has expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors and threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. To bring Tehran back in line, the Europeans are betting on diplomacy. A meeting was set for Friday, July 25, in Istanbul, Turkey, between Western E3 envoys and representatives of the Iranian regime. This is an "important" but not "decisive" first step, according to Kazem Gharibabadi, Tehran's nuclear negotiator, who spoke on Wednesday to a handful of media outlets, including American news website Axios. According to James Acton, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, simply agreeing to meet again would be a step forward.


France 24
17-07-2025
- France 24
Raids, arrests and deportations: The economic toll of closed borders
12:27 From the show This week, we focus on the unprecedented immigration crackdown currently taking place in the United States under President Donald Trump. We head to Los Angeles, where our team meets local business owners whose shops are on the brink of bankruptcy, as workers and customers are staying home to avoid ICE raids. Plus, Charles Pellegrin talks to Tara Watson, director of the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at the Brookings Institution.