Boris Johnson's ‘jet zero' dreams have failed to take off

Telegraph

a day ago

For those flying south this summer, the prospect of 'green fuel' one day powering their planes down to the south of France or the Med may mean a little less guilt over their climate-destroying air travel.
British factories pumping out climate-friendly aviation fuel have long been a pipe-dream for the aviation industry and some holidaymakers, and it seemed one step closer six years ago when British Airways announced plans for the UK's first factory to convert waste into jet fuel.
The futuristic plant, to be built by fuels firm Velocys on a field near the Humber estuary, in north Lincolnshire, would see household rubbish destined for landfills turned into thousands of tonnes of green plane fuel, powering the airline into a sustainable future.
Alex Cruz, then-chief executive of BA, said the fuel – known as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) – would be a 'game-changer for aviation'.
But six years after British Airways' Velocys announcement – and a year after the SAF plant should have gone into production – that dream seems as far away as ever.
Velocys' Humber estuary site remains as an empty field – a recent image shows that the only structure on it is a portaloo.
The failure of the plan highlights the difficulty green aviation has faced getting off the ground, made worse by a government push to force airlines to use more green fuels.
On the back of promises for airlines to use SAF, in 2022, then-prime minister Boris Johnson announced a new policy – known as 'jet zero' – to enforce a minimum threshold of green fuel use.
By 2050, he claimed, flying would be zero-carbon, adding: 'Sustainable fuels and fully electric planes will achieve guilt-free flying for years to come.'
Under the policy, still in force, British airlines must this year fuel their planes with a minimum of 2pc SAF, ratcheting up to 10pc by 2030 and 22pc by 2040.
That fuel should also be pumping out from a minimum of five new SAF plants, which, Johnson's policy promised, would be operating by now, creating jobs and helping make the UK 'a clean energy superpower'.
Barely any of that has come to pass.
For BA's partner Velocys – which is yet to sell any green jet fuel to any airline – it ran out of money last year and was taken over by a private consortium. Its leadership team says its plans are only delayed, but similar promises by other UK would-be SAF producers have also so far come to nothing.
It means the only company making SAF in the UK is the Phillips66 refinery on Humberside – and its output is just 20,000 tonnes a year. That's about 0.2pc of the 11 million tonnes of aviation fuel Britain consumes annually.
So how are UK airlines meeting their obligation to add 2pc SAF to their fuel tanks?
Most of it is being imported, generating jobs not in the UK but mostly in Finland, the Netherlands, the US and Holland. That gap is set to worsen, says the Aviation Environment Federation.
It points out that by 2030, the UK's SAF obligation will have soared to 10pc, or 1.2 million tonnes, of green fuel – all or most of which will be imported.
'While a number of plants are making progress, the expected amounts they will produce are insufficient to meet the mandate', it says.
Those imports will not just dash the opportunity for more UK jobs, but also mean flight costs will take off, say experts.
Simone Burgin, a biofuels analyst with Argus Media, said SAF is already far more expensive than conventional jet fuel.
'The European price for SAF stood at $2,280 (£1,681) per metric tonne on Aug 13 – more than three times the price of conventional jet fuel.'
Those high costs are inherent to the way SAF is made – using vast amounts of heat at high pressure to break down waste cooking oil, animal fats, wood, plastics or other organic materials into the smaller molecules needed for jet fuel.
But inflated pricing is adding to that, says the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents 340 global airlines.
It says fuel suppliers are stoking their profit margins with 'compliance fees'.
'The fees being imposed on airlines are over twice the prevailing market price premium of SAF. In the EU, airlines face an additional $1.3bn in excess surcharges in 2025. The impact of the compliance fees in the UK is even higher.'
It all suggests Britain's demand that airlines add SAF to their fuel is doing little to save the planet and nothing for UK jobs, while making aviation increasingly expensive.
Greenhouse gas emissions from UK-based international aviation are surging – equating to 37 million tonnes in 2024 – more than double the 16 million tonnes seen in 1990, and set to grow even faster in the next two decades.
The 300 million passengers who pass through UK airports annually is expected to hit up to 500 million by 2050, with 10 airports planning major expansions.
And globally, aviation emits around a billion tonnes of CO2 and rising – so what difference can SAF really make?
Airlines and aircraft manufacturers point out that it's still early days for SAF – and as manufacturing steps up, so prices and emissions may decline.
But they too are worried by the lack of realism from a Government that is telling them to use ever more SAF, but doing little to help ensure homegrown supplies.
Jonathon Counsell, sustainability director at IAG, which owns British Airways, said the current plans for boosting SAF output were too weak to meet UK and EU decarbonisation targets.
Airlines want some of the taxes they pay to be deployed to support SAF production.
'SAF is a critical lever to get to net-zero, and to achieve this, the industry needs increased Government support, as mandates alone are not enough,' he said.
'Greater support is essential to bridge the cost gap between SAF and traditional jet fuel, alongside stronger incentives to accelerate production at the scale required to ensure a long-term, affordable supply.'
The Department for Transport, which is steering the policy, points out that next year will see the introduction of its 'revenue certainty mechanism' under which companies that build SAF plants will get a guaranteed minimum price, funded by a levy on airlines.
But that levy would add to costs in an industry with a slim profit margin of 3pc to 4pc – and so would go straight on to ticket prices.
Tim Alderslade, the chief executive of Airlines UK, said global SAF supply had doubled last year to one million tonnes and was expected to double again this year.
'Like any brand-new industry, progress will be uneven, and there will be failures. There also remains much to do to ensure UK airlines have access to the growing volumes of 'advanced' SAF needed to meet the UK mandate.'
Ryanair, Europe's largest airline, puts it more bluntly: 'SAF production needs to be incentivised by governments.' It said the environmental taxes it pays annually need to be reinvested to 'accelerate the decarbonisation of the sector'.
A Department for Transport spokesman said: 'Not backing SAF is not an option – it is a core part of the global drive to decarbonise aviation.
'There are encouraging signs that the SAF mandate will be met, and we will continue to support the production and use of SAF as the technology matures.'
A Velocys spokesman said the company was seeking to licence its technology to SAF producers worldwide to help them produce more fuel.
He said the amount of money required for the Humber estuary plant was 'beyond investment appetite' and investors 'remained concerned about the pace of regulatory change' but that it hoped to bring the site to fruition in the 'near term'.
For sunseekers hoping to cleanse their conscience with green fuel, a guilt-free future still seems some way off.