Gaza takeover plan exposes constraints on Israeli military

Mint

4 days ago

Israeli authorities say the occupation of the entire Gaza Strip threatened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to start with a narrower goal—seizing control of Gaza City—reflecting serious resource constraints that are likely to limit the pace and scope of military operations.
After nearly two years of intense conflict sparked by an assault on southern Israel by Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas that killed around 1,200 people, Israel's troops are exhausted, and a large majority of citizens say they want a deal to end the war and free hostages still held by Hamas.
Netanyahu said Thursday that Israeli forces would take over the entire strip, a Palestinian enclave of roughly two million people along the Mediterranean coast, in order to disarm Hamas and remove it from power. The plan was approved by the security cabinet, which said the military would start with Gaza City.
Israel hasn't said when the operation would begin, how long it would take or how many troops it might require. Military analysts said it could play out over weeks or months. Aid groups say they worry any offensive would further curtail efforts to supply food and medical care to residents.
Gaza City is the biggest population center in the northern part of the strip, home to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. Its dense urban landscape—with a web of underground tunnels used by militants—makes it a difficult battlefield. Some surviving Israeli hostages are thought to be held there.
A rapid advance would require several army divisions with tens of thousands of soldiers, said Amir Avivi, a former Israeli defense official who is close to the current government. It is likely Israel will opt for a more gradual operation that puts less stress on manpower, he said.
'Israel is trying to find a balance, not conquering everything but concentrating on a critical area," he said.
Some analysts said Israel appears to hope the increased military pressure will bring Hamas back to the negotiating table on its terms and could pause the operation at any point. But it is a big gamble given the pressure on the military and the risks to Israel's international image and internal support.
With the threat of a full takeover, Israel may have 'bitten off more than it can chew," said Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank based in Tel Aviv.
Israel's own military has expressed doubts about the idea. Military chief Eyal Zamir has opposed the idea, warning of falling into traps set by Hamas and the need to give his troops a rest.
Since a cease-fire collapsed in March, Israel has taken over about 75% of the Gaza Strip, and parts of Gaza City are already under its control. On Thursday, the military ordered two more neighborhoods—Al Daraj and Al Tuffah—to be evacuated in response to what it said was rocket fire from the areas.
Manpower shortages are among Israel's chief constraints, Israeli officials say, as the military has been fighting for almost two years across multiple fronts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank.
Commanders say it is becoming more difficult to persuade reservists to show up for new rounds of fighting in Gaza. Their service isn't optional, but there is some give and take in Israel, which tries to be accommodating of family circumstances or financial pressure, particularly given the long deployments.
In recent weeks, the military has pulled troops out of Gaza to give soldiers some rest. Several reservists told The Wall Street Journal they wouldn't return to Gaza if called again. The stress on soldiers has contributed to flagging public support for the war.
Polling in Israel has shown for months that a large majority of the population supports ending the war in exchange for the hostages' release. A recent survey by the aChord Center at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem found that 79% of Israelis feel ending the war in Gaza is the most urgent national task.
Families of hostages taken by Hamas also fear military operations in areas where people are still being held could put them in danger.
If Israeli troops push into Gaza City, it would likely order evacuations, enlarging the numbers of displaced people and worsening the humanitarian situation. The United Nations says starvation deaths and malnutrition are rising.
So are deadly incidents near aid distribution sites and convoy routes, where Israel's military has acknowledged firing toward crowds of Palestinians it says got too close to its positions.
Israel's plan risks deepening its international isolation. Germany, a close Israel ally, will formally suspend sales of arms that Israel could use in the Gaza Strip until further notice, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Friday.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Israel made a bad decision to expand the war and pressed it to reconsider.
Arab governments are asking the U.S. to help stop the offensive from moving forward and get the parties back to the negotiating table, people familiar with the efforts said. President Trump has expressed concern about starvation but said a decision to take over all of Gaza is up to Israel.
Netanyahu suggested on Thursday that while Israel planned to take control of all of Gaza, the enclave would eventually be administered by Arab forces. Arab governments, which have pushed various plans for postwar Gaza and a path to a Palestinian state that Israel has resisted, are reluctant to step in and be seen as foreign conquerors bailing Netanyahu out.
Regional neighbors also worry that the plan could ultimately push more Gazans to seek refuge within their borders, the people said.
Analysts expressed doubts over whether the threat of occupation would be enough to break the logjam in talks to reach a cease-fire. Israel and the U.S. pulled their teams out of the talks last month, saying Hamas didn't appear interested in reaching a deal. Hamas has said it was negotiating in good faith.
'Maybe Israel is in a way rushing to military methods, which might at the end of the day be a mistake, but they don't have a lot of options," said Israel Ziv, a retired Israeli general who once headed Israel's Gaza division.
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