Latest news with #InstituteforNationalSecurityStudies
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Iran isn't in a place to handle an Israeli strike due to internal struggles, expert says
'Salami makes threats every other day. Nothing new. Inside Iran, he's seen as illiterate and is mocked. He's not someone who worries us.' The current negotiations betweenIran and the US are simply a game for the Islamic Republic, an expert revealed to Maariv. Beni Sabti, a senior researcher on Iranian affairs at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), argued that the recent spike in rhetoric surrounding Iran's nuclear program is less about an imminent war and more about political maneuvering by both Iran and its adversaries. In the wake of reports suggesting Israeli readiness to strike Iran's nuclear facilities independently, and following a reported ultimatum from former US President Donald Trump to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Sabti offered a more grounded interpretation. 'This isn't a new crisis—it's a familiar Iranian chess game,' Sabti told Maariv. 'What many see as dangerous threats are often bluffs, ones even the Iranian public doesn't take seriously.' Regarding ongoing nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, Sabti predicted more delay tactics from Tehran: 'The Iranians will likely propose so-called compromises just to push back deadlines. That's how they operate. They hold onto cards and play them when the timing suits them.' According to Sabti, Iran still has room to maneuver diplomatically. 'There's still space to compromise - on uranium enrichment levels, international inspections, even centrifuge operations - if Iran chooses to do so.' Recent Israeli military actions, particularly in Yemen, have reignited debate over whether Jerusalem could act independently against Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Sabti was unequivocal: 'Israel has the operational capability. Militarily and physically, there is no barrier to such an action.' However, he warned of a critical caveat. 'The main issue is coordination with the US - whether America would provide intelligence or defensive support during a strike.' Sabti is openly dismissive of Iranian threats, particularly from IRGC commander Hossein Salami, who he said is ridiculed even within Iran. 'Salami makes threats every other day. Nothing new. Inside Iran, he's seen as illiterate and is mocked. He's not someone who worries us.' Sabti also highlighted the technological and strategic gap between the two countries. 'Israel has modern capabilities. Iran, in contrast, is stuck in the 1970s. Their air force is practically non-functional, flying aircraft that are 60 years old. That's not how you confront a regional power.' Beyond the geopolitical theater, Sabti pointed to deepening unrest within Iran. 'There's no bread, no electricity. The situation is deteriorating quickly. Strikes are spreading—something we haven't seen in years.' Despite the rising rhetoric, Sabti believed diplomacy would prevail in the coming weeks. 'There are backchannel discussions between Israel and the US, conducted by long-standing intermediaries. It's hard to imagine a scenario where there's both a signed agreement and simultaneous plans for an Israeli strike.' While acknowledging the risks, he remained cautiously optimistic. 'I believe there will be an understanding—something that's not black or white, but acceptable to both sides. Whether that's a military option or a diplomatic one, it could still be a solution Israel can live with.'
Boston Globe
25-05-2025
- Politics
- Boston Globe
Trump's Warming Toward Syria Complicates Israel's Military Strategy
Israel has also called the new Syrian government, led by an Islamist rebel faction once linked to al-Qaida, 'extremist.' Advertisement But just days after Israel's May 2 airstrike near the palace in Damascus, President Donald Trump upended decades of U.S. foreign policy by meeting with President Ahmad al-Sharaa of Syria and announcing plans to lift all sanctions on the country. Trump said al-Sharaa had 'a real shot at pulling it together,' after a nearly 14-year civil war fractured his country. Since that meeting May 14, the Israeli strikes on Syria have all but stopped. The United States is Israel's staunchest and most powerful ally. But Trump's surprise embrace of al-Sharaa not only offered the new Syrian leader an unexpected lifeline, it also appears to have undercut efforts by the hard-line Israeli government to seize on the instability in Syria and the weakness of the new government to prevent the rise of another anti-Israel neighbor. Advertisement 'Israel has serious doubts about his true intention and the pragmatic image that he is trying to project,' Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the think tank Institute for National Security Studies, said of al-Sharaa. Before Trump's declaration of confidence in the new Syrian leader, Netanyahu and his top aides in Israel had been determined to deny al-Sharaa and his nascent government access to the vast array of heavy weaponry amassed by the Assad regime over its decades in power. 'The most significant part of the Israeli airstrikes in Syria over the past four months was aimed against strategic weapons that were under the possession of the former Syrian army,' Valensi said, adding that the Israeli government now appears to be starting to find ways to avoid more confrontation. 'All of this is indicating a direction of deconfliction and de-escalation and more willingness to open a dialogue with the Syrian regime,' she said. Publicly, Israeli officials have described a number of drivers behind their attacks on Syria. One was a kinship with the Druse religious minority in Syria, who practice an offshoot of Islam. About 150,000 Druse live in Israel, serve in the military and participate in politics. In a statement last month, the Israeli military vowed to assist Druse communities in Syria 'out of a deep commitment to our Druse brothers in Israel.' The Druse in Syria have long controlled the strategically located Sweida region in the southwest near Israel, but are not seen as a threat by the Israelis. In late April, when fierce sectarian clashes broke out between Druse militia fighters and forces linked to Syria's new government, Israel offered to come to the aid of the Druse. Advertisement Israeli leaders said the airstrike near the presidential palace was a warning to al-Sharaa to stop the attacks on the Druse. But the motivations behind the hundreds of strikes on Syria over the past months go beyond support for the Druse. Israel began its attacks on Syria almost immediately after Assad was driven from power on Dec. 8 after a 24-year tenure, more than half of it spent fighting a bloody civil war. Within about a week of Assad's fall, Israel had conducted more than 450 strikes on Syria, according to the military and humanitarian groups. The attacks took out the entire Syrian navy, fighter jets, drones, tanks, air-defense systems, weapons plants and a wide array of missiles and rockets across the country, according to the Israeli military. The new government in Syria has not attacked Israel since coming to power and has said the country is weary of war and wants to live at peace with all countries. Trump's olive branch to al-Sharaa complicates the Israeli strategy in Syria and is the latest example of how U.S. foreign policy is reshaping the Middle East. 'What we don't want in Syria is in another version of the Houthis,' said Yaakov Amidror, another former national security adviser to Netanyahu and a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. The Iran-backed Houthis control northern Yemen and have been firing missiles at Israel since the war in the Gaza Strip began, in solidarity with the Palestinians. Al-Sharaa, who has long since distanced himself from his past connections to al-Qaida, insists that he wants to preside over a stable regime and be a reliable partner for Western nations. Advertisement But Israeli officials are skeptical at best. Many around Netanyahu see Syria's new administration as likely to evolve into a stridently Islamist, anti-Israel government. In March, Gideon Sa'ar, the Israeli foreign minister, said the idea that Syria was moving toward a reasonable government was 'ridiculous,' adding that al-Sharaa and his cohorts 'were jihadists and remain jihadists, even if some of their leaders have donned suits.' Still, the sheer volume and scope of Israel's attacks on Syria have drawn criticism from around the world, including from President Emmanuel Macron of France, who met with al-Sharaa in mid-May. 'You cannot ensure the security of your country by violating the territorial integrity of your neighbors,' Macron said of Israel. And even some inside Israel say that a concerted military campaign will not be good for Israel long term. Tamir Hayman, a former head of intelligence for the Israeli military who is the executive director of the Institute of National Security Studies, said he worries that the strikes are creating the very extremism Israel wants to deter. 'I think we are kind of doing it, sort of from momentum, and should reconsider all of those missions that we are conducting,' he said. Military experts say part of the motivation behind the Israeli strikes was Netanyahu's desire to secure the parts of southwestern Syria closest to the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau that Israel captured during the 1967 Middle East war and later annexed. The fear is that groups far more extreme than the Druse could establish a foothold close to Israel, with the ability to threaten Jewish settlements in the Golan Heights or launch attacks deeper into Israel. Advertisement After the Assad regime fell, Israeli troops also seized more Syrian territory. Another Israeli goal in Syria, according to former military officials and analysts, is to limit Turkey's influence in Syria. Israel and Turkey have had a fraught relationship over the years. And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has moved quickly to establish military and political influence in neighboring Syria, positioning himself as a close ally to the government there. 'If the Turks try to make Syria a base for their military and help the current regime to build capacities that might be used against Israel, there might be conflict,' Amidror said. But it may be the United States' efforts at rapprochement with Syria that end up stymying Israeli military strategy in Syria. Trump said in a speech in Saudi Arabia this month that he hopes Syria's new government will succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace. 'They've had their share of travesty, war, killing,' he said. 'That's why my administration has already taken the first steps toward restoring normal relations.' This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump Sides With the Israeli People Against Netanyahu
Today, Hamas freed Edan Alexander, its sole remaining living American hostage. The release was the result of a back-channel dialogue between the United States and the terrorist group ahead of Donald Trump's arrival in the region this week. Announcing the news on social media, the president heralded the event not as a one-off, but as a step 'to put an end to this very brutal war and return ALL living hostages and remains to their loved ones.' Israel was not involved in the process and, according to Axios, found out about the negotiations only through its intelligence services. Some reports have cast this disconnect as indicative of a chasm between Trump and Israel. But this is a misreading. The divide is not between the president and Israel so much as between the president and Israel's leader. Most Israelis support what Trump is doing—and oppose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's approach to the war in Gaza. This dynamic was evident from an emotional moment that took place in mid-air. Earlier today, Adam Boehler, Trump's special envoy for hostage response, flew to Israel with Alexander's mother in advance of her son's release. In an unusual move, Boehler addressed the commercial flight over the intercom. 'President Trump, when he told me to go get back every hostage, every Israeli, he wasn't kidding,' Boehler told the passengers. 'And I want you to know that this is the start. We're going after every single hostage that there exists in all of Israel. We're coming for them all, because the bond of Israel and the bond of the United States has never been stronger.' The people on the plane applauded. This response is not surprising. For months, polls have shown again and again that some 70 percent of Israelis support striking a deal to free the remaining hostages over continuing the war. The problem is that Netanyahu is politically beholden to the radical minority that not only wants to escalate the conflict, but hopes to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and replace them with Jewish settlements. And without the far-right parties pushing this outcome, Netanyahu's coalition government would collapse. [Read: Israel plunges into darkness] Trump knows that most Israelis want to conclude the war with diplomacy, and not just because he and his team can read polls. Back in March, the president met with hostages who had been freed during prior cease-fires and reportedly asked them whether the Israeli public was willing to back another hostage deal. Their answer was not officially disclosed, but most of those who met with Trump have since rallied for a new hostage agreement, and they are far from alone. The latest survey by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies found that 69 percent of Israelis support 'ending the war in exchange for an agreement to return all the hostages'; only 23 percent are opposed. Any deal would require the release of notorious terrorists from Israeli prisons, but that's a price the public is willing to pay. Back in 2011, 79 percent of Israelis supported the release of more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners—including brutal murderers such as Yahya Sinwar, the future architect of the October 7 massacre—in exchange for a single captive Israeli soldier. Leaving no one behind is essential to the Israeli ethos, because the country's people know that the world has historically been willing to abandon Jews to their fate. One can see this outlook as noble, narrow, or shortsighted, but it is the reality, and Trump has placed himself on the side of it and the Israeli people. Netanyahu has not. Although diplomacy reflects both the Israeli preference and the American interest, the prime minister cannot straightforwardly pursue it, because his far-right coalition rejects it. And so Trump and his envoys Boehler and Steve Witkoff seem to have decided to force the issue, knowing that Netanyahu will likely have to go along with whatever Trump proposes, because he has nowhere else to turn. In the past, Netanyahu has waited out Democratic presidents and relied on allies on the American right to run cover for him while doing so. But with Trump, he has no such options. Nor does Netanyahu have his public's approval. The prime minister's coalition received just 48.4 percent of the vote in Israel's last election. More than 70 percent of the public wants Netanyahu to resign either now or after the war. The INSS survey found that 76 percent of Israelis have little or no faith in the current government, which has been losing in the polls since well before October 7. Israel today is a war-weary society that wants to get its people back, not to advance an extremist endgame cooked up by the far right to expel Gazans and indefinitely occupy the Strip. Just 20 percent of Israelis support Jewish settlement in Gaza, and only 16 percent back prolonged Israeli military governance there. Given these realities, Trump may well understand that his Israeli counterpart is a paper tiger who lacks popular legitimacy. The question is: How far will he press his advantage? For now, the Alexander negotiation that sidelined Netanyahu and the Trump team's subsequent push for a final hostage and cease-fire deal suggests that the administration has picked a side—the Israeli majority's side. Article originally published at The Atlantic
Atlantic
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Atlantic
Trump Sides With the Israeli People Against Netanyahu
Today, Hamas freed Edan Alexander, its sole remaining living American hostage. The release was the result of a back-channel dialogue between the United States and the terrorist group ahead of Donald Trump's arrival in the region this week. Announcing the news on social media, the president heralded the event not as a one-off, but as a step 'to put an end to this very brutal war and return ALL living hostages and remains to their loved ones.' Israel was not involved in the process and, according to Axios, found out about the negotiations only through its intelligence services. Some reports have cast this disconnect as indicative of a chasm between Trump and Israel. But this is a misreading. The divide is not between the president and Israel so much as between the president and Israel's leader. Most Israelis support what Trump is doing—and oppose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's approach to the war in Gaza. This dynamic was evident from an emotional moment that took place in mid-air. Earlier today, Adam Boehler, Trump's special envoy for hostage response, flew to Israel with Alexander's mother in advance of her son's release. In an unusual move, Boehler addressed the commercial flight over the intercom. 'President Trump, when he told me to go get back every hostage, every Israeli, he wasn't kidding,' Boehler told the passengers. 'And I want you to know that this is the start. We're going after every single hostage that there exists in all of Israel. We're coming for them all, because the bond of Israel and the bond of the United States has never been stronger.' The people on the plane applauded. This response is not surprising. For months, polls have shown again and again that some 70 percent of Israelis support striking a deal to free the remaining hostages over continuing the war. The problem is that Netanyahu is politically beholden to the radical minority that not only wants to escalate the conflict, but hopes to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and replace them with Jewish settlements. And without the far-right parties pushing this outcome, Netanyahu's coalition government would collapse. Trump knows that most Israelis want to conclude the war with diplomacy, and not just because he and his team can read polls. Back in March, the president met with hostages who had been freed during prior cease-fires and reportedly asked them whether the Israeli public was willing to back another hostage deal. Their answer was not officially disclosed, but most of those who met with Trump have since rallied for a new hostage agreement, and they are far from alone. The latest survey by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies found that 69 percent of Israelis support 'ending the war in exchange for an agreement to return all the hostages'; only 23 percent are opposed. Any deal would require the release of notorious terrorists from Israeli prisons, but that's a price the public is willing to pay. Back in 2011, 79 percent of Israelis supported the release of more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners—including brutal murderers such as Yahya Sinwar, the future architect of the October 7 massacre—in exchange for a single captive Israeli soldier. Leaving no one behind is essential to the Israeli ethos, because the country's people know that the world has historically been willing to abandon Jews to their fate. One can see this outlook as noble, narrow, or shortsighted, but it is the reality, and Trump has placed himself on the side of it and the Israeli people. Netanyahu has not. Although diplomacy reflects both the Israeli preference and the American interest, the prime minister cannot straightforwardly pursue it, because his far-right coalition rejects it. And so Trump and his envoys Boehler and Steve Witkoff seem to have decided to force the issue, knowing that Netanyahu will likely have to go along with whatever Trump proposes, because he has nowhere else to turn. In the past, Netanyahu has waited out Democratic presidents and relied on allies on the American right to run cover for him while doing so. But with Trump, he has no such options. Nor does Netanyahu have his public's approval. The prime minister's coalition received just 48.4 percent of the vote in Israel's last election. More than 70 percent of the public wants Netanyahu to resign either now or after the war. The INSS survey found that 76 percent of Israelis have little or no faith in the current government, which has been losing in the polls since well before October 7. Israel today is a war-weary society that wants to get its people back, not to advance an extremist endgame cooked up by the far right to expel Gazans and indefinitely occupy the Strip. Just 20 percent of Israelis support Jewish settlement in Gaza, and only 16 percent back prolonged Israeli military governance there. Given these realities, Trump may well understand that his Israeli counterpart is a paper tiger who lacks popular legitimacy. The question is: How far will he press his advantage? For now, the Alexander negotiation that sidelined Netanyahu and the Trump team's subsequent push for a final hostage and cease-fire deal suggests that the administration has picked a side—the Israeli majority's side.
New York Times
05-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
Israel Believes Pounding Gaza Again Will Finish Hamas. Some Are Not So Sure.
As Israel gears up to add tens of thousands of reserve soldiers to the battlefield in Gaza, the logic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be this: Victory against Hamas will come from an even bigger barrage of military might in the weeks ahead. 'We have not finished the war,' Mr. Netanyahu declared on Sunday as his security cabinet signed off on expanding the fighting. 'We will perform this operation with a unified military, with a powerful army and deeply resolved soldiers.' But it is not clear how those additional fighters will fundamentally alter a dynamic seen over 18 months of war in which hundreds of thousands of soldiers have pummeled Hamas fighters, with residents in Gaza caught in the middle, but have failed to achieve Israel's goals of destroying the militant group or releasing all hostages. And it remains uncertain whether the Israeli military will surge back into Gaza before President Trump arrives in the Middle East next week for meetings in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Two reservists who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to make comments to the news media said that they had received call-up orders beginning in June. Since the collapse of a two-month cease-fire in March, Israel has blocked food, medicine and other humanitarian aid from reaching Gaza. And the Israeli air force has already renewed its heavy bombardment of the enclave. Now, the government is poised to expand its ground offensive as well, with the goal of re-entering cities in Gaza and forcing Hamas to submit to Israel's demand to permanently lay down their weapons. The question is whether a return to that kind of fighting is a road map to the end of hostilities or merely an intensification of a deadly conflict with worsening consequences for Palestinians and the Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas. Tamir Hayman, who served as the Israeli military's intelligence chief for four years, said the attempts to pressure Hamas with overwhelming force had been 'exhausted' after more than a year and a half of war. 'Eliminating Hamas as a terror organization by military force only is very difficult,' said Mr. Hayman, who is now executive director of the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank in Tel Aviv. He said Israel would be better off ending the war with Hamas, which has been weakened significantly and can be kept in check after the fighting ends. The Israeli military has not provided details about how the reservists will be deployed. But two Israeli officials, who requested anonymity to comment on military plans, say it will involve several brigades seeking so-called operational superiority in several parts of Gaza. The Trump administration has sought a new cease-fire, but Hamas has demanded an end to the war and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, while Israel has insisted that Hamas disarm, which the group has refused to do. The Israel call-up of soldiers is also a message to Mr. Netanyahu's hard-line supporters, some of whom were dismayed that the military had not completed the task of eradicating Hamas. Promising a more intense phase of the war could be good domestic politics for him. Israeli officials have said they believe it was the power and intensity of their military campaign in Gaza last year that pressured Hamas to release some of the hostages and to accept a cease-fire in January. Hours after the Hamas terror attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 people in Israel, with 251 others taken hostage, Mr. Netanyahu ordered the mobilization of 360,000 reservists, adding to the country's standing military of about 170,000 soldiers. In the fighting since, more than 50,000 Palestinians have died, according to the Gaza health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilian and military deaths. About 130 hostages have been released and the Israeli military has retrieved the bodies of at least 40 others. Around 24 hostages are thought to be still alive, according to the Israeli government. When Israel and Hamas agreed to the January cease-fire deal, Mr. Netanyahu said credit should go to the 'painful blows that our heroic fighters have landed on Hamas.' 'This is exactly how the conditions were created for the turning point in its position and for the release of our hostages,' he said during a national address. But other voices, like Yair Lapid, Israel's opposition leader, have expressed grave doubts about the strategy. 'I fear that the intensity of the fighting will dictate the fate of the hostages,' Mr. Lapid said on Israeli Army Radio. 'What is the goal? Why are they calling up reservists? Extending regular service and all without defining a goal — that's not how you win a war.' In a statement Monday, the organization representing the families of hostages urged the government not to widen the war. 'The expansion of military operations puts every hostage at grave risk,' the families said. 'We implore our decision makers: Prioritize the hostages. Secure a deal. Bring them home — before it's too late.'
