Is lithium finding its wings again? Here's what three ASX explorers have to say

News.com.au

6 days ago

After prolonged depressed prices, lithium has begun to claw its way back
China continues to control the majority of lithium processing and EV manufacturing
Stockhead speaks to three explorers in the lithium space to gauge their thoughts
Lithium was a market darling in 2022, ushering in a tsunami of newly minted explorers to the ASX – then the wave crashed.
Now the beloved battery metal could be starting to swell again, with activity emerging in recent weeks.
The price of the battery-metal has spectacularly devalued over the past few years due to oversupply and re-adjusting Western demand for electric vehicles.
But now, the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF has climbed more than 20% over the past month, whilst price reporting agency Fastmarkets on Tuesday assessed 6% Li2O – the benchmark for the spodumene concentrate mined by WA producers – at US$760/t.
That's a violent increase from the June 23 low of US$610/t, underpinned by rising futures prices in China and improved buying interest from battery makers, as well as the closure of a number of Chinese operations on environmental grounds.
In the same period, lithium carbonate has run from US$8050/t to US$8550/t.
This change has flowed through to ASX miners.
Kathleen Valley lithium mine owner Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) has regularly been a barometer for speculative interest in the sector.
It once ran from 3c to more than $3 at lithium's highs before crashing below 60c at its recent ebb. The Gina Rinehart backed stock has seen its share price climb more than 16% over the past five days to breathe down the neck of $1 once again.
A tale of two countries
It isn't always easy to glean clear answers from the market (furiously shakes Magic 8 Ball).
But some of the most recent data has come out of two closely linked places, Africa's lithium hotspot of Zimbabwe and China.
This month, Zimbabwe reported a 30% growth in lithium exports for the first half of this year in spite of a weak spot price.
The Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe says the country shipped nearly 600,000t of spodumene concentrate between January and June this year, an increase from more than 450,000t during the same period in the year prior.
China is the chief buyer of Africa's lithium, a source it has cultivated to garner control over a supply chain previously dominated at the raw material end by Australia and Chile.
And it remains top dog in the EV industry by the length of the straight, producing more than 70% of the world's share in 2024 with an even stronger grip on battery production and battery chemical refining.
Today, Chinese-owned companies commandeer about one quarter of the globe's lithium mining and two-thirds of battery grade lithium chemical capacity.
Low lithium prices have suited the dominant battery players CATL and BYD, who have developed their own mines in China to help flood the market and, allegedly, keep a lid on prices.
But the Chinese Government has become increasingly concerned with Neijuan, a phrase popularised by Weibo users to describe the negatives of the "rat race". In mining terms, it means authorities could crack down on sectors where competition is driving industrial losses.
Whether that was behind the closure of Zijin subsidiary Zangge Mining's Qinghai operations, a key factor in recent commodity price increases, is a subject of speculation.
Is this month's increase in the lithium price nothing but a dead cat bounce, or are we witnessing a return to glory days? While many explorers pivoted their attention away from the battery metal, Stockhead spoke to three companies who believe in the long term opportunity.
What are you seeing on the ground floor as a lithium explorer in terms of market sentiment?
Chariot Corporation (ASX:CC9) managing director Shanthar Pathmanathan: "I believe it's the beginning of a massive bull run in lithium, but it's important to be cost conscious. Africa has increased production from artisanal and small scale mines by 500% in the last three years whilst lithium prices crashed by 90%. African supply is now about 20% of world supply.
"Moreover, the Chinese buyers seem to prefer African supply. The inside lane in lithium for the next year or so while prices are still recovering will likely continue to be the Africa-to-China supply route. Getting in on the inside lane means making money whilst others are not and potentially taking advantage of opportunities elsewhere.
"I still see lithium as the great disruptor of the massive, multi-trillion dollar oil market and this recent crisis has given us the opportunity we needed to get positioned."
Pursuit Minerals (ASX:PUR) managing director and CEO Aaron Revelle: "We're seeing a definitive shift in sentiment on the ground. The rebound in lithium carbonate pricing has re-ignited some soft investor interest, particularly in high-quality brine assets following on from the Rio Tinto acquisition of Arcadium and many watching how the new CEO of Rio will advance those assets.
"There's more inbound interest, especially those looking to secure supply outside of China. Juniors with pilot scale production, strong grades, and a clear pathway to development are getting a second look. It's cautious optimism, but the tone has improved from earlier this year."
Delta Lithium (ASX:DLI) managing director James Croser: "There's perhaps a glimmer of dawn on the horizon after a very long night. I want to believe that this uptick in sentiment is a collective realisation that the tide may be on the turn and the relentless adoption of new battery technologies and applications, and persistent double digit growth in most markets will in fact translate into improved market pricing in the long run. I mean, how can it not? But I've been wide awake since midnight waiting for that dawn, seen a couple of false ones and we need to be cautious that our optimism isn't clouding our vision."
What potential catalysts are on the horizon that could create a boon in the lithium space?
SP: "Interest rate cuts and more dovish monetary policy is what I'm looking at. I think Trump is bang on the money in that it needs to flow again. Easier access to money will mean households will have more money to spend on relative luxury items like EVs, although the price gap has diminished or reversed as of late with the advent of the Chinese EVs."
AR: "Several key catalysts could trigger a strong re-rating across the lithium sector, such as a potential revival of EV subsidies in Europe or the US could direct significant capital toward EV supply chains in an effort to break China's dominance on processing. Rising investment in grid-scale battery storage, driven by the global rollout of renewable energy infrastructure and the ever growing rise of the AI sector is also emerging as another major demand driver.
"In China, recent signs of supply-side discipline – including Zangge Mining's decision to halt lithium production – highlights efforts to stabilise prices, and any further pro-EV or economic support measures from Beijing would add upward pressure.
"Finally, M&A activity remains a powerful catalyst; strategic acquisitions by automakers, battery manufacturers, or majors seeking to lock in supply are likely to drive a valuation reset across the developer end of the market."
JC: "On top of consistent EV demand growth, I think renewables and the associated fixed battery storage requirements are the dark horse. Having batteries on your business/house with solar on the roof is akin to putting a water tank next to a windmill. It's obvious that one complements the other. People are just getting over the novelty of solar, wait until everyone works out that having battery storage is like keeping the solar on all night!
"Politically, I think seeing serious downstream processing outside China by the Europeans/North Americans/Japanese will go a long way in breaking the pricing power that the Chinese now possess for lithium raw materials. That'll likely require government assistance at these prices, so I'll be looking for some firm government actions to back up the rhetoric and ultimately provide a broader customer base for the miners."
How do you view the future of global lithium demand, and which countries will lead the charge as China dominates EV production?
SP: "That will continue to be the trend. China is close to the great tipping point. One in two cars sold in China are EVs and they could move to close to 100% EV penetration soon. The USA EV sales will respond with more dovish monetary policy."
AR: "China remains dominant in battery manufacturing and electric vehicle production, currently selling over 1 million EVs per month, a staggering pace that has helped push global EV adoption to a tipping point, with one in every four new vehicles sold now electric.
"Whilst China leads today, we see a more diversified future emerging over the next 5–10 years. The US and Canada continue to invest heavily in scaling domestic EV and battery supply chains, with a growing focus on building out domestic critical mineral production and processing. Europe is similarly accelerating efforts to localise refining capacity and secure offtake agreements, aiming to reduce reliance on China amid tightening ESG and supply-chain transparency standards.
"On the supply side, Argentina and Australia remain critical players with Argentina offering tier-1 brine resources, increased judicial and regulatory certainty, low-cost extraction potential, and faster development pathways. Demand for lithium isn't disappearing; it's shifting regionally. This transition is fuelling a new wave of investment, and competition across the global battery materials landscape."
JC: "China doesn't look like it's giving up first place any time soon. They have really bet the farm on lithium and invested a huge amount of capital in the battery supply chain going back at least 10 years.
"There's a long way to go before EVs inevitably overtake vehicles on the road, so I expect growth and innovation in the EV sector to continue apace. There's pretty strenuous competition going on between the new Chinese car manufacturers and the old car companies, with new models coming out all the time. Competition is good for consumers, so I expect the product offering to improve and strong competition to persist. Global EV penetration looks almost certain to continue to grow: the genie is well and truly out of the bottle, and it's a pretty cool genie with more torque and less moving parts."
What are the key challenges and opportunities you foresee in the lithium market over the next 12 months?
SP: "We could have a scramble for lithium supply if the Chinese market passes the tipping point. Car purchases are subject to the network effect where people tend to follow their neighbours. China is currently the only market that matters and they're at 50% EV penetration.
"Chariot is well setup after this downturn. We have reacquired the Horizon property with a 10.2Mt LCE resource and taken a 66.667% stake in a magnificent portfolio of spodumene bearing projects in Nigeria in the most counter cyclical way possible."
AR: "The lithium sector continues to face real challenges over the next 12 months with ongoing price volatility and a significantly tighter capital environment making it increasingly difficult for developers to raise the funds needed to progress projects compared to other commodities such as gold or copper. Negative sentiment around spodumene oversupply continues to cloud investor outlook, even though brine based projects remain comparatively low cost and economically robust even at current price levels of between US$8-10,000/t for lithium carbonate.
"Despite these challenges, there are clear opportunities emerging. Juniors with pilot scale operations or near term development timelines, particularly in Argentina, are well positioned to attract offtake interest as buyers look to diversify. ESG aligned, low cost brine projects are gaining traction with Western partners, and any recovery in sentiment, or lithium demand could sharply re-rate quality assets that are development-ready.
"Companies that come out with massive production targets above 20,000tpa of new material without the balance sheet to support it or are NPV chasing to try and look good in the market will struggle to gain investor interest. Investors can see the demand piece for lithium remaining intact with demand set to hit near 3 million tonnes by 2030, however it's capital discipline and realistic scalable projects that will win out long term."
JC: "I feel a little relieved that Delta isn't trying to navigate this price trough as a producer. Our challenge at Delta is to position our business and manage capital effectively through the downturn, keep our projects ticking along and be ready to come out of the blocks when real improvement shows up."