Opinion: What Has JD Vance's India Visit Achieved?

NDTV

22-04-2025

Apart from the minor detail that the US is India's largest trading partner, there's this critical matter of matrimony. The second lady of the US, Usha Vance, is of Telugu descent and like a good girl from a good family, she's prevailed on her husband to be his charming self and visit the 'in-laws'. And that's precisely what he's doing.
It is quite likely that the visiting Vances may achieve more for the North-South unity in India than any well-intentioned political action ever will. After all, despite Mrs Vance's roots in Andhra Pradesh and the presence of extended family in the southern state, the Vance family has only the northern delights on their itinerary. However, it must be said that April is not the best time to go sightseeing in Delhi, Agra, and Jaipur. But when you are busy and important, you indulge in brutal rationing of your travel time. Only the most critical items on the to-do list get checked. Visiting the Taj Mahal is important. As is the visit to 7 Lok Kalyan Marg, the official residence of the Indian Prime Minister.
Whether the tariff talk happened between the US Vice President and PM Narendra Modi, the visit is already a success, as reported by the former's office. In fact, talking business would be off-colour in a milieu where the PM of the largest democracy of the world becomes a congenial grandfather figure to the three little Vances. Until there's an expected unexpected bombshell of an announcement from the White House around bilateral trade, this familial interaction will become the leitmotif for the two countries' relationship. Just like the enthusiastic hugs between President Barack Obama and PM Modi.
PM Modi has redefined India's foreign policy by making personal gestures a part of the plan. The decorated swing at Ahmedabad for Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit, bear hugs with the French President Emmanuel Macaron, and the immortal Team Melodi moment with the Italian PM Georgia Meloni are some of the examples of PM Modi's on-brand personalisation of geopolitics. Whether these gestures have translated into the gains that India hopes for is a contested matter. After all, the Galwan standoff happened within a few months of the Modi-Xi summit in Mahabalipuram in October 2019. It can be successfully argued that PM Modi's show of bonhomie with the world leaders is aimed primarily at domestic consumption. One of the biggest reasons cited by voters election after election is PM Modi raising India's profile on the world stage.
But if anyone thinks that the optics of the present visit are only furthering PM Modi's reputational agenda, they'd be missing a critical point. With the rise of Indian Americans' political profile in the US, both Democrats and Republicans actively wooed the community. While the presidential candidate of the Democratic party, Kamala Harris, invoked her Indian mother, the Republican campaign matched it by highlighting the vice presidential candidate's Indian American wife. There is no evidence yet whether the 'desi' card worked for either but not playing it would have meant ceding some political ground. And when you have a card, you better use it whenever you can.
Some predictability in Indo-US relations amidst unpredictable While House
The Vance entourage is also accompanied by Ricky Gill, Senior Director for South and Central Asia at the US National Security Council. Gill served as the director for Russia and European Energy Security at the NSC during the first Trump presidency. He was also a senior advisor in the Bureau of Overseas Buildings Operations. During the Biden presidency, Gill advocated against Nord Stream 2, a 1,234-kilometre-long natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, which allegedly aligns Russia's interests with China's ambitions in the region, with the German port of Mukran being the site of the handshake. After a successful sabotage in 2022, there is talk of its revival, with a potential US ownership. This move will be an example of the US's attempts at decoupling Russia and China. Trump administration sees China as the prime adversary. The recent trade tariffs have exemplified this attitude.
Washington DC deems New Delhi as its most important ally in the region to check Beijing.
While Vance put the charm on, Gill is expected to have done the work that's needed to not just iron out the trade wrinkles between India and the US but also towards the Trump administration's contain-China policy. But how much can New Delhi give to the US-India partnership without rattling Beijing in its neighbourhood? The unpredictability of policy decisions made in the White House also merits a cautious approach on India's part. There is no win that a US ally can claim that is not susceptible to being overturned without warning.
The only win that India can reasonably hope for is that the Vice President and his family can prevail on the POTUS to stop publicly calling India a "tariff abuser" and "tariff king" till some resolution on that front is reached.