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Trump v Musk is the final battle before a catastrophe

Trump v Musk is the final battle before a catastrophe

In any case, against total federal spending last year of nearly $US7 trillion, it is but a drop in the ocean, and only goes to show how difficult it is to find serious savings in government administration, even when given a free hand with the headcount.
The rampant corruption and incompetence that Musk's Department of Government Efficiency expected to find in the Washington and wider government machine has turned out to be largely an illusion, and many of the cuts he has managed to make seem to have done more harm than good.
This is not to argue that it's not worth trying, or that you cannot make public services more efficient. But it takes time, substantial upfront investment, and the savings are generally not as big as anticipated.
To nobody's great surprise, it transpires that the skills needed to run a successful business do not transfer easily to the public sector, where the disciplines of the bottom line, the profit motive and competitive markets don't exist.
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The shame of it is that the Musk who built Tesla and SpaceX into two of the world's most successful companies over a period of nearly two decades has been almost entirely absent while at DOGE these past four or five months.
Instead, we have seen a reckless, chainsaw-wielding – and if the American press is to be believed, drug-fuelled – Musk who, like his one-time boss Donald Trump, seems to regard government more as performative art than public service.
We can all point to myriad examples of public sector waste, of unfathomable spending decisions and stultifying, jobsworth bureaucracy, but the imagined savings from addressing these things nearly always turn out to be a mirage.
In Britain, Nigel Farage's Reform UK claims there is £7 billion to be saved by scrapping public sector spending on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs. Sadly, no such saving exists.
Recent government figures showed just £27 million ($56 million) was spent by the civil service on DEI measures during 2022-23. This might well be £27m too much, but it is not going to solve Britain's debt crisis.
The two big cash-burners in advanced economies' state spending are public sector salaries and welfare, and both desperately need to be addressed if Western democracies are ever to extract themselves from now mountainous debt.
Musk has comprehensively failed on the first of these missions, and not surprisingly so. The sort of productivity-improving automation and digitalisation we see widely applied in the private sector to stay competitive is a marathon, not a sprint, and it requires precision in planning and execution.
None of these characteristics was on display from the tech bros sent in to tackle the bloated size of the American state. Their approach was one of slash and burn rather than the slow, methodical re-engineering of government needed to achieve sustainable savings and productivity improvement.
What's more, Trump shows little or no appetite for meaningful entitlement reform.
OK, some attempt is being made to trim spiralling Medicaid spending, but it's half-hearted and is really only there as a gesture to appease fiscal hawks among House Republicans.
Nobody can tell you exactly when the storm will break, but Musk's failure brings the final reckoning that much closer.
The bottom line is that Trump is as much a creature of fantasy economics as any.
He wants both low taxes and high spending, and expects economic growth to make up the difference. It's the same delusion as Liz Truss, only very much more dangerous in its seeming rejection of fiscal orthodoxies.
Unlike Britain, America is the beating heart of the global financial system, and if US debt markets go belly-up they'll take everyone else down with them.
Back here in Britain, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, shows similarly little sign of getting to grips with the leviathan of public spending as she puts the finishing touches to next Wednesday's spending review.
Public sector salary costs are rising, not falling, and while ministers talk the talk on welfare reform, their approach to the issue is no more convincing than that of Trump. It's just a little tinkering around the edges.
Simply getting working-age benefits back to their pre-pandemic level would save £49 billion a year – more than enough to avoid tax rises and fund the desired increase in defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP, Jeremy Hunt, Reeves' Conservative predecessor as chancellor, points out.
Spending on disability benefits alone has surged from £37 billion just before the pandemic to £56 billion now, much more than in any comparable economy, with the bulk of the growth coming from mental health conditions.
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Yet Reeves used up almost all her political capital axing the winter fuel allowance to all but the poorest pensioners, a course of action that saves only £1.5 billion a year. This has left her with virtually no space for more serious entitlement reform.
In both the US and Britain, cutting state spending back to size is simply not happening on the scale needed to stem the rising tide of debt.
Attempts by Musk to draw a line in the sand have ended in acrimony and recrimination. Nobody can tell you exactly when the storm will break, but Musk's failure brings the final reckoning that much closer.

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US, China seek to extend trade truce with London talks
US, China seek to extend trade truce with London talks

News.com.au

time35 minutes ago

  • News.com.au

US, China seek to extend trade truce with London talks

After a round of talks in Geneva last month, the United States and China will sit down at the negotiating table in London on Monday to attempt to preserve a fragile truce on trade, despite simmering tensions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will lead the US delegation, President Donald Trump announced Friday. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng -- who led Beijing's negotiating team in Geneva -- will also head the team in London, China's foreign ministry announced at the weekend. "The meeting should go very well," Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform. His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told Fox News on Sunday: "We want China and the United States to continue moving forward with the agreement that was struck in Geneva." While the government of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reiterated that it was not involved in the content of the discussions in any way, a spokesperson said, "We are a nation that champions free trade." UK authorities "have always been clear that a trade war is in nobody's interests, so we welcome these talks," the spokesperson added. - 'Correcting the course' - The talks in London come just a few days after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping finally held their first publicly announced telephone talks since the Republican returned to the White House. Trump said the call, which took place on Thursday, had reached a "very positive conclusion." Xi was quoted by state-run news agency Xinhua as saying that "correcting the course of the big ship of Sino-US relations requires us to steer well and set the direction." The call came after tensions between the world's two biggest economies had soared, with Trump accusing Beijing of violating a tariff de-escalation deal reached in Geneva in mid-May. "We need China to comply with their side of the deal. And so that's what the trade team will be discussing tomorrow," Leavitt said Sunday. In April, Trump introduced sweeping worldwide tariffs that targeted China most heavily. At one point the United States hit China with additional levies of 145 percent on its goods as both sides engaged in tit-for-tat escalation. China's countermeasures on US goods reached 125 percent. Then in Switzerland, after two days of talks, the two sides agreed to slash their staggeringly high tariffs for 90 days. But differences have persisted, including over China's restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals used in tech products. The impact was reflected in the latest official export data released Monday in Beijing. Exports to the United States fell 12.7 percent on month in May, with China shipping $28.8 billion worth in goods last month. This is down from $33 billion in April, according to Beijing's General Administration of Customs. - 'Green channel' - Throughout its talks with Washington, China also has launched discussions with other trading partners -- including Japan and South Korea -- in a bid to build a united front to counter Trump's tariffs. On Thursday, Beijing turned to Canada, with the two sides agreeing to regularize their channels of communication after a period of strained ties. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese Premier Li Qiang also discussed trade and the fentanyl crisis, Ottawa said. Beijing proposed establishing a "green channel" to ease the export of rare earths to the European Union, and fast-tracking approval of some export licenses. That proposal from the commerce ministry in Beijing came after talks on Tuesday between China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic.

The quiet unravelling of the man who almost killed Trump
The quiet unravelling of the man who almost killed Trump

Sydney Morning Herald

timean hour ago

  • Sydney Morning Herald

The quiet unravelling of the man who almost killed Trump

New York/Dallas: Thomas Crooks was acting strangely. Sometimes he danced around his bedroom late into the night. Other times, he talked to himself with his hands waving around. These unusual behaviours intensified last US summer, after he graduated with high honours from a community college. He also visited a shooting range, grew out his thin brown hair and searched online for 'major depressive disorder' and 'depression crisis'. His father noticed the shift – mental health problems ran in the family. On the afternoon of July 13, Crooks told his parents he was heading to the range and left home with a rifle. Hours later, he mounted a roof at a presidential campaign rally in western Pennsylvania and tried to assassinate Donald Trump. That scene has been etched into American history. After a bullet grazed Trump's ear, he lifted his blood-streaked face, pumped his fist and shouted the words: 'Fight! Fight! Fight!' Trump has said that God saved him in order to save America, and the White House recently unveiled a statue in the Oval Office commemorating the moment. The near miss revealed alarming security lapses that allowed an amateur marksman barely out of his teens to fire at a former president less than 150 metres away. And it galvanised support for Trump, inspiring voters who saw him as a righteous hero triumphing in the face of smear campaigns, relentless prosecutions and even an attempt on his life. Now, nearly a year later, with Trump in his second presidential term, much of the world has forgotten about the 20-year-old who set out to murder him. Crooks – who also killed a bystander and wounded two others before being shot dead by the Secret Service – had kept to himself and seemed to leave little behind. His motive was a mystery, and remains the source of many conspiracy theories. A New York Times examination of the last years of the young man's life found that he went through a gradual and largely hidden transformation, from a meek engineering student critical of political polarisation to a focused killer who tried to build bombs. For months, he operated in secret, using aliases and encrypted networks, all while showing hints of a mental illness that may have caused his mind to unravel to an extent not previously reported. Loading This account offers the fullest picture yet of Crooks' life. Although many aspects of his background and mental health are still unknown, the Times' reporting is based on thousands of pages of his school assignments, emails and logs of his internet activity, as well as text messages, government reports and interviews with dozens of people who knew him or were familiar with the case. Crooks followed his dark path with seemingly little notice from those closest to him. He stockpiled explosive materials in the small house he shared with his parents in Bethel Park, Pennsylvania. When his face was plastered across the news, his classmates couldn't believe it. Investigators later found a crude homemade bomb inside his bedroom, not far from where his parents slept. His parents, Matthew and Mary Crooks, did not respond to interview requests, and their lawyers declined to comment. But on the night of the shooting, Matthew Crooks told federal agents that he had been concerned about his son's visits to the gun club. 'I should have known better,' Matthew Crooks said, one of the agents later told congressional investigators. 'A really intelligent kid' Before his deadly assault, Thomas Crooks' only record of trouble was a lunch detention in middle school for chewing gum. In high school, he earned a top score on the SAT – 1530 out of a possible 1600 – and received perfect marks on three Advanced Placement exams, according to his academic records. He did not socialise much, but came out of his shell in a technology program in which he built computers. His teacher, Xavier Harmon, nicknamed him 'Muscles' – an ironic nod to his slight frame – which made him laugh. One high school classmate said Crooks enjoyed talking about the economy and cryptocurrencies, encouraging others to invest. On the rare occasions when the conversation turned to politics, he seemed to be in the middle of the road. On former president Joe Biden's inauguration day in January 2021, Crooks donated $US15 to a committee backing Democrats. But when he turned 18 that autumn, he registered as a Republican. His family's political affiliations were as diverse as the swing state they lived in: his older sister, Katherine, and his father were registered as Libertarians, and his mother was a Democrat. Crooks enrolled in the Community College of Allegheny County. He was the kind of student others sought out for help, and a regular member of a math book club, though he didn't appear to hang out with friends outside school. He endeared himself to his professors not just with high marks but also for showing up at office hours and trading emails about how to improve his work. 'He seemed like a really intelligent kid – I thought he would be able to do whatever he wanted,' said Trish Thompson, who taught Crooks engineering. In her class, he designed a chessboard for visually impaired people like his mother. Crooks was close with his immediate family, according to a video he recorded in the autumn of 2022 for an oral communication class. He described preparing Thanksgiving turkey with his father and baking Christmas cookies with his mother, saying, 'I don't think there's any better way to spend time with family than cooking meals together'. Another assignment in that class required him to speak in front of five adults. He asked the professor for an exception, as he had only his parents and possibly his sister. 'I do not have access to any other adults,' he wrote. In April 2023, Crooks showed a glimpse of his frustration with American politics. In an essay arguing for ranked-choice voting, he lamented 'divisive and incendiary campaigns which are pulling the country apart'. 'As we move closer to the 2024 elections, we should consider carefully the means by which we elect our officials,' Crooks wrote. 'We need an election system that promotes kindness and co-operation instead of division and anger.' Around the time he wrote the essay, he began using an alias to buy from online firearms vendors, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. He would make at least 25 gun-related purchases before the fateful rally. Declining mental health Crooks bought a membership in August 2023 to the Clairton Sportsmen's Club, a shooting range about 30 minutes from his home. This was not unusual in his community, and his father was a gun enthusiast. By the end of the year, he was visiting the range roughly once a week, including on Christmas Day. Through a public records request, the Times obtained logs of Crooks' internet activity while he was signed in to the community college network. The records are somewhat limited: they show website domains rather than specific pages, and Crooks often used an encrypted connection to obscure his online footprint. Loading Still, the digital trail suggests he was focused on Trump, the news and guns. On December 6, 2023, about seven months before the shooting, he rapidly cycled through about a dozen news websites, including CNN, The New York Times and Fox News, before visiting the Trump administration's archives, the logs show. Minutes later, he visited seven gun websites, including one focused on the AR-15, similar to the rifle he would use in the attack. Later that day, he paid a visit to the shooting range. The next month, he placed a $US101.91 order online for more than 7.5 litres of nitro methane, a fuel additive that can be used in explosives, giving his home address for delivery. The package did not arrive promptly. 'I have not received any updates of the order shipping out yet,' he wrote to the seller on January 31, 2024. He used his community college email account, but included a screenshot of his order confirmation showing he had provided an encrypted email address. 'I was wondering if you still have it and when I can expect it to come.' On February 26, a couple of hours before a physics class, he visited a series of websites, including an ammunition manufacturer, the Trump campaign site and NBC News, as well as YouTube, Reddit, Spotify and a site for Xbox users. Interviews with his teachers, friends and co-workers suggest that many people who interacted with him regularly did not know he was troubled, let alone capable of premeditated murder. He had worked for years as a part-time dietary aide at the Bethel Park Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation Centre. Employees said Crooks was punctual and dependable, though he didn't talk much. He showed up for work in the weeks before the shooting and nothing seemed amiss. 'What I heard from people in his department is that there was no clear indications of changes in his behaviour or routine,' said Reggie Brown, a former human resources manager at the centre. After back-to-back semesters on the dean's list, he earned his associate degree in engineering and was set to transfer to Robert Morris University. He had told classmates he hoped to have a career in aerospace or robotics. His father noticed his mental health declining in the year before the shooting, and particularly in the months after graduation. He later told investigators that he had seen his son talking to himself and dancing around his bedroom late at night, and that his family had a history of mental health and addiction issues, according to a report from the Pennsylvania State Police, parts of which were shared with the Times. The younger Crooks was also making the depression-related queries online, investigators found. Republican congressman Clay Higgins, who worked on a congressional task force on the shooting, told the Times that he learnt worrisome information about Crooks' mental health while investigating the case on a trip to Pennsylvania. He was 'having conversations with someone that wasn't there', Higgins said, adding that many questions remained unanswered. 'There was a mysteriousness to Thomas Crooks' descent into madness.' In the final month before the shooting, Crooks conducted more than 60 searches related to Trump and Biden, the FBI said. And yet there were hints that he hadn't fully committed to an attack. 'When can I expect the diploma to be mailed?' he wrote to his college registrar. About a week before the shooting, Crooks' internet searches became especially focused, the FBI said. On July 6, he registered for Trump's rally at the fairgrounds in Butler, Pennsylvania, and searched, 'How far was Oswald from Kennedy?' In his remaining days, he looked up where Trump would be speaking on the site. Just after 6pm on July 13, Crooks fired eight bullets towards Trump. Investigators later found two explosive devices in the trunk of the car that he had driven there. Loading As word spread the next day that he was the gunman, one of his few friends from community college reached out. 'Hey Thomas, you weren't the person who tried to shoot Trump and then got killed right?' texted the friend, who was interviewed by the Times but requested anonymity because he feared being associated with Crooks. 'I really liked you as a friend and I desperately don't want you to be dead.' A homemade explosive Shortly before 11pm on the night of the shooting, Crooks' father called 911, saying he had not seen his son since that afternoon. 'We've gotten no contact from him, no text messages, nothing's been returned, and he's not home yet,' Matthew Crooks told the operator. 'That's totally not like him,' he added. 'So we're kind of worried, not really sure what we should do.' Agents with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives had begun surveilling the 93-square-metre house, according to a transcript of agent testimony provided to Congress. Loading About 11.40pm, the agents approached the house. Matthew Crooks opened the screen door and asked, 'Is it true?' They entered and noticed Mary Crooks sitting with the family cat in the living room, television on. The agents swept the house for potential dangers. Down a short hallway was the young Crooks' bedroom, door open. The room was fairly organised, with a made bed and large 3D printer. An empty pistol belt and holster lay on the floor. At the room's threshold, an agent looked down and saw a .50-calibre, military-grade ammunition can 'with a white wire coming out', according to the testimony. The agent also observed a jug labelled 'nitro methane' in the closet. The agents immediately evacuated. While they waited for the bomb squad, they interviewed Matthew and Mary Crooks outside late into the night, asking about their family and what made their son 'tick'. The parents were calm and polite. They said Thomas loved building things, like computers, and visiting the gun range. They didn't think he had any friends or girlfriends. His father said he didn't 'know anything' about his son, according to the testimony. On the subject of politics, Matthew Crooks said his son would 'go back and forth and kind of argue both sides', an agent testified. The father said Thomas would talk about Trump and Biden, but 'never really indicated that he liked one or the other more'. Mary Crooks, who had been mostly quiet, spoke up to ask if her son was really dead. The agent told her yes, and she began to cry. Her husband 'put his hand out and said, you know, 'It's OK. It's not true until we see the body'', the agent testified. The couple has kept a low profile since the shooting. This spring, Crooks left the job she had held for 27 years – as a rehabilitation therapist for the visually impaired at a state agency – because of the shooting, according to a resignation letter obtained by the Times. 'Certain circumstances have left me with no other option,' she wrote. Matthew Crooks had been in social services for more than two decades, first working with spina bifida patients and later managing the medical care of patients in a Pittsburgh health system. The health system declined to say whether he still worked there. Madeleine Frizzi, the mother of Mary Crooks, was short when asked about her daughter and son-in-law. 'I do not have any contact with them – whatsoever,' she said, declining to elaborate. A cloud of conspiracy theories The FBI has led the investigation into Crooks, working with the ATF and the Pennsylvania State Police. In the weeks after the shooting, the FBI released preliminary findings based on details gleaned from interviews and Crooks' devices suggesting he had been planning an attack for over a year. In a news conference late last July, FBI officials said they had not found evidence of mental health treatment, institutionalisation or medications. The next month, the agency said Crooks had begun searching online about how to make explosives as early as 2019, when he was 16, but did not elaborate on the timeline. Investigators said they had not uncovered a motive or any co-conspirators. In the absence of new information, conspiracy theories about Crooks have grown. Some have claimed he had an accomplice, or that he was an agent of the so-called deep state. Kelly Little, who lives across the street from the Crooks' house, said another theory floating around claimed she and other neighbours had built underground tunnels to aid the shooter. 'Why do we still know nothing about that guy in Butler?' Elon Musk asked in February in front of a large crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference outside Washington. 'Kash is going to get to the bottom of it,' he added, referring to Trump's FBI director, Kash Patel. The crowd cheered. Loading But in a recent interview on Fox News, Patel at his side, Dan Bongino, the deputy director of the FBI, said there was simply no 'big, explosive there there'. He added, 'If it was there, we would have told you.' Helen Comperatore, an avid Trump supporter whose husband, Corey, was killed by Crooks, still wants to know more. She told the Times she had not received any official updates from investigators in months and felt she was owed a fuller explanation of what had happened. 'I am praying the president gets to the bottom of it and keeps working on this case for me – and him,' she said.

The quiet unravelling of the man who almost killed Trump
The quiet unravelling of the man who almost killed Trump

The Age

timean hour ago

  • The Age

The quiet unravelling of the man who almost killed Trump

New York/Dallas: Thomas Crooks was acting strangely. Sometimes he danced around his bedroom late into the night. Other times, he talked to himself with his hands waving around. These unusual behaviours intensified last US summer, after he graduated with high honours from a community college. He also visited a shooting range, grew out his thin brown hair and searched online for 'major depressive disorder' and 'depression crisis'. His father noticed the shift – mental health problems ran in the family. On the afternoon of July 13, Crooks told his parents he was heading to the range and left home with a rifle. Hours later, he mounted a roof at a presidential campaign rally in western Pennsylvania and tried to assassinate Donald Trump. That scene has been etched into American history. After a bullet grazed Trump's ear, he lifted his blood-streaked face, pumped his fist and shouted the words: 'Fight! Fight! Fight!' Trump has said that God saved him in order to save America, and the White House recently unveiled a statue in the Oval Office commemorating the moment. The near miss revealed alarming security lapses that allowed an amateur marksman barely out of his teens to fire at a former president less than 150 metres away. And it galvanised support for Trump, inspiring voters who saw him as a righteous hero triumphing in the face of smear campaigns, relentless prosecutions and even an attempt on his life. Now, nearly a year later, with Trump in his second presidential term, much of the world has forgotten about the 20-year-old who set out to murder him. Crooks – who also killed a bystander and wounded two others before being shot dead by the Secret Service – had kept to himself and seemed to leave little behind. His motive was a mystery, and remains the source of many conspiracy theories. A New York Times examination of the last years of the young man's life found that he went through a gradual and largely hidden transformation, from a meek engineering student critical of political polarisation to a focused killer who tried to build bombs. For months, he operated in secret, using aliases and encrypted networks, all while showing hints of a mental illness that may have caused his mind to unravel to an extent not previously reported. Loading This account offers the fullest picture yet of Crooks' life. Although many aspects of his background and mental health are still unknown, the Times' reporting is based on thousands of pages of his school assignments, emails and logs of his internet activity, as well as text messages, government reports and interviews with dozens of people who knew him or were familiar with the case. Crooks followed his dark path with seemingly little notice from those closest to him. He stockpiled explosive materials in the small house he shared with his parents in Bethel Park, Pennsylvania. When his face was plastered across the news, his classmates couldn't believe it. Investigators later found a crude homemade bomb inside his bedroom, not far from where his parents slept. His parents, Matthew and Mary Crooks, did not respond to interview requests, and their lawyers declined to comment. But on the night of the shooting, Matthew Crooks told federal agents that he had been concerned about his son's visits to the gun club. 'I should have known better,' Matthew Crooks said, one of the agents later told congressional investigators. 'A really intelligent kid' Before his deadly assault, Thomas Crooks' only record of trouble was a lunch detention in middle school for chewing gum. In high school, he earned a top score on the SAT – 1530 out of a possible 1600 – and received perfect marks on three Advanced Placement exams, according to his academic records. He did not socialise much, but came out of his shell in a technology program in which he built computers. His teacher, Xavier Harmon, nicknamed him 'Muscles' – an ironic nod to his slight frame – which made him laugh. One high school classmate said Crooks enjoyed talking about the economy and cryptocurrencies, encouraging others to invest. On the rare occasions when the conversation turned to politics, he seemed to be in the middle of the road. On former president Joe Biden's inauguration day in January 2021, Crooks donated $US15 to a committee backing Democrats. But when he turned 18 that autumn, he registered as a Republican. His family's political affiliations were as diverse as the swing state they lived in: his older sister, Katherine, and his father were registered as Libertarians, and his mother was a Democrat. Crooks enrolled in the Community College of Allegheny County. He was the kind of student others sought out for help, and a regular member of a math book club, though he didn't appear to hang out with friends outside school. He endeared himself to his professors not just with high marks but also for showing up at office hours and trading emails about how to improve his work. 'He seemed like a really intelligent kid – I thought he would be able to do whatever he wanted,' said Trish Thompson, who taught Crooks engineering. In her class, he designed a chessboard for visually impaired people like his mother. Crooks was close with his immediate family, according to a video he recorded in the autumn of 2022 for an oral communication class. He described preparing Thanksgiving turkey with his father and baking Christmas cookies with his mother, saying, 'I don't think there's any better way to spend time with family than cooking meals together'. Another assignment in that class required him to speak in front of five adults. He asked the professor for an exception, as he had only his parents and possibly his sister. 'I do not have access to any other adults,' he wrote. In April 2023, Crooks showed a glimpse of his frustration with American politics. In an essay arguing for ranked-choice voting, he lamented 'divisive and incendiary campaigns which are pulling the country apart'. 'As we move closer to the 2024 elections, we should consider carefully the means by which we elect our officials,' Crooks wrote. 'We need an election system that promotes kindness and co-operation instead of division and anger.' Around the time he wrote the essay, he began using an alias to buy from online firearms vendors, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. He would make at least 25 gun-related purchases before the fateful rally. Declining mental health Crooks bought a membership in August 2023 to the Clairton Sportsmen's Club, a shooting range about 30 minutes from his home. This was not unusual in his community, and his father was a gun enthusiast. By the end of the year, he was visiting the range roughly once a week, including on Christmas Day. Through a public records request, the Times obtained logs of Crooks' internet activity while he was signed in to the community college network. The records are somewhat limited: they show website domains rather than specific pages, and Crooks often used an encrypted connection to obscure his online footprint. Loading Still, the digital trail suggests he was focused on Trump, the news and guns. On December 6, 2023, about seven months before the shooting, he rapidly cycled through about a dozen news websites, including CNN, The New York Times and Fox News, before visiting the Trump administration's archives, the logs show. Minutes later, he visited seven gun websites, including one focused on the AR-15, similar to the rifle he would use in the attack. Later that day, he paid a visit to the shooting range. The next month, he placed a $US101.91 order online for more than 7.5 litres of nitro methane, a fuel additive that can be used in explosives, giving his home address for delivery. The package did not arrive promptly. 'I have not received any updates of the order shipping out yet,' he wrote to the seller on January 31, 2024. He used his community college email account, but included a screenshot of his order confirmation showing he had provided an encrypted email address. 'I was wondering if you still have it and when I can expect it to come.' On February 26, a couple of hours before a physics class, he visited a series of websites, including an ammunition manufacturer, the Trump campaign site and NBC News, as well as YouTube, Reddit, Spotify and a site for Xbox users. Interviews with his teachers, friends and co-workers suggest that many people who interacted with him regularly did not know he was troubled, let alone capable of premeditated murder. He had worked for years as a part-time dietary aide at the Bethel Park Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation Centre. Employees said Crooks was punctual and dependable, though he didn't talk much. He showed up for work in the weeks before the shooting and nothing seemed amiss. 'What I heard from people in his department is that there was no clear indications of changes in his behaviour or routine,' said Reggie Brown, a former human resources manager at the centre. After back-to-back semesters on the dean's list, he earned his associate degree in engineering and was set to transfer to Robert Morris University. He had told classmates he hoped to have a career in aerospace or robotics. His father noticed his mental health declining in the year before the shooting, and particularly in the months after graduation. He later told investigators that he had seen his son talking to himself and dancing around his bedroom late at night, and that his family had a history of mental health and addiction issues, according to a report from the Pennsylvania State Police, parts of which were shared with the Times. The younger Crooks was also making the depression-related queries online, investigators found. Republican congressman Clay Higgins, who worked on a congressional task force on the shooting, told the Times that he learnt worrisome information about Crooks' mental health while investigating the case on a trip to Pennsylvania. He was 'having conversations with someone that wasn't there', Higgins said, adding that many questions remained unanswered. 'There was a mysteriousness to Thomas Crooks' descent into madness.' In the final month before the shooting, Crooks conducted more than 60 searches related to Trump and Biden, the FBI said. And yet there were hints that he hadn't fully committed to an attack. 'When can I expect the diploma to be mailed?' he wrote to his college registrar. About a week before the shooting, Crooks' internet searches became especially focused, the FBI said. On July 6, he registered for Trump's rally at the fairgrounds in Butler, Pennsylvania, and searched, 'How far was Oswald from Kennedy?' In his remaining days, he looked up where Trump would be speaking on the site. Just after 6pm on July 13, Crooks fired eight bullets towards Trump. Investigators later found two explosive devices in the trunk of the car that he had driven there. Loading As word spread the next day that he was the gunman, one of his few friends from community college reached out. 'Hey Thomas, you weren't the person who tried to shoot Trump and then got killed right?' texted the friend, who was interviewed by the Times but requested anonymity because he feared being associated with Crooks. 'I really liked you as a friend and I desperately don't want you to be dead.' A homemade explosive Shortly before 11pm on the night of the shooting, Crooks' father called 911, saying he had not seen his son since that afternoon. 'We've gotten no contact from him, no text messages, nothing's been returned, and he's not home yet,' Matthew Crooks told the operator. 'That's totally not like him,' he added. 'So we're kind of worried, not really sure what we should do.' Agents with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives had begun surveilling the 93-square-metre house, according to a transcript of agent testimony provided to Congress. Loading About 11.40pm, the agents approached the house. Matthew Crooks opened the screen door and asked, 'Is it true?' They entered and noticed Mary Crooks sitting with the family cat in the living room, television on. The agents swept the house for potential dangers. Down a short hallway was the young Crooks' bedroom, door open. The room was fairly organised, with a made bed and large 3D printer. An empty pistol belt and holster lay on the floor. At the room's threshold, an agent looked down and saw a .50-calibre, military-grade ammunition can 'with a white wire coming out', according to the testimony. The agent also observed a jug labelled 'nitro methane' in the closet. The agents immediately evacuated. While they waited for the bomb squad, they interviewed Matthew and Mary Crooks outside late into the night, asking about their family and what made their son 'tick'. The parents were calm and polite. They said Thomas loved building things, like computers, and visiting the gun range. They didn't think he had any friends or girlfriends. His father said he didn't 'know anything' about his son, according to the testimony. On the subject of politics, Matthew Crooks said his son would 'go back and forth and kind of argue both sides', an agent testified. The father said Thomas would talk about Trump and Biden, but 'never really indicated that he liked one or the other more'. Mary Crooks, who had been mostly quiet, spoke up to ask if her son was really dead. The agent told her yes, and she began to cry. Her husband 'put his hand out and said, you know, 'It's OK. It's not true until we see the body'', the agent testified. The couple has kept a low profile since the shooting. This spring, Crooks left the job she had held for 27 years – as a rehabilitation therapist for the visually impaired at a state agency – because of the shooting, according to a resignation letter obtained by the Times. 'Certain circumstances have left me with no other option,' she wrote. Matthew Crooks had been in social services for more than two decades, first working with spina bifida patients and later managing the medical care of patients in a Pittsburgh health system. The health system declined to say whether he still worked there. Madeleine Frizzi, the mother of Mary Crooks, was short when asked about her daughter and son-in-law. 'I do not have any contact with them – whatsoever,' she said, declining to elaborate. A cloud of conspiracy theories The FBI has led the investigation into Crooks, working with the ATF and the Pennsylvania State Police. In the weeks after the shooting, the FBI released preliminary findings based on details gleaned from interviews and Crooks' devices suggesting he had been planning an attack for over a year. In a news conference late last July, FBI officials said they had not found evidence of mental health treatment, institutionalisation or medications. The next month, the agency said Crooks had begun searching online about how to make explosives as early as 2019, when he was 16, but did not elaborate on the timeline. Investigators said they had not uncovered a motive or any co-conspirators. In the absence of new information, conspiracy theories about Crooks have grown. Some have claimed he had an accomplice, or that he was an agent of the so-called deep state. Kelly Little, who lives across the street from the Crooks' house, said another theory floating around claimed she and other neighbours had built underground tunnels to aid the shooter. 'Why do we still know nothing about that guy in Butler?' Elon Musk asked in February in front of a large crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference outside Washington. 'Kash is going to get to the bottom of it,' he added, referring to Trump's FBI director, Kash Patel. The crowd cheered. Loading But in a recent interview on Fox News, Patel at his side, Dan Bongino, the deputy director of the FBI, said there was simply no 'big, explosive there there'. He added, 'If it was there, we would have told you.' Helen Comperatore, an avid Trump supporter whose husband, Corey, was killed by Crooks, still wants to know more. She told the Times she had not received any official updates from investigators in months and felt she was owed a fuller explanation of what had happened. 'I am praying the president gets to the bottom of it and keeps working on this case for me – and him,' she said.

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