Sterling holds on to gains, investors mull rise in borrowing
Sterling , which rose 0.6% on Monday, its biggest one-day gain in a month, was last at $1.3493, showing little change on the day. It was also steady against the euro , which was at 86.7 pence.
Britain borrowed more than expected in June as high inflation added to the government's debt costs, according to official data that is likely to add to speculation about the need for fresh tax increases later this year.
Public sector net borrowing totalled 20.7 billion pounds ($27.9 billion) last month, the data showed. This compares with a forecast of 17.1 billion pounds for June from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the budget watchdog.
"These overshot expectations yet again, a fact that should refocus minds on UK fiscal sustainability risks, especially after warnings by the ONS that the 20.7 billion pound figure recorded represents 'the second-highest June borrowing since monthly records began in 1993, after that of June 2020'," analysts at Monex said.
"As we have noted previously, this is not a sterling positive dynamic, leaving risks to the pound tilted to the downside ahead of Thursday's PMI release," they said.
The borrowing figures added to a sense among investors that finance minister Rachel Reeves may have to raise taxes again later this year to remain on track to meet her targets for fixing the public finances.
A separate report on Tuesday showed grocery inflation in Britain rose to 5.2% in the four weeks to July 13, up from 4.7% in last month's report and the highest since January last year, heaping more pressure on UK households.
Market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator, which published the report, said just under two-thirds of households say they are "very concerned" about the cost of their groceries, and are switching to supermarket own-label products.
The numbers align with data last week that showed nationwide consumer price inflation picked up more than expected in June, also hitting the fastest pace since January 2024.
The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week and at least one more time before the end of the year.
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Daily Mail
17 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Trump warns against second independence vote for 75 years
Donald Trump has signalled that there should not be another Scottish independence referendum until at least 2064 because countries 'can't go through that too much'. The US President said he thought there had been an agreement not to hold a rerun of the 2014 separation vote for at least another 50 years. His comments came during the third full day of his visit to Scotland as he met Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at his Turnberry golf course, and just hours after John Swinney claimed that an SNP majority in next year's Holyrood election would be a mandate for another independence referendum. During a lengthy press conference with the Prime Minister, Mr Trump also said he wants Scotland to thrive as he vowed to consider removing punishing tariffs on Scotch whisky and made the case for more North Sea drilling. He also directly pressed Sir Keir Starmer to take advantage of the North Sea's oil reserves. When asked about the SNP's plan to demand another independence referendum if it wins a majority at next year's Holyrood elections, Mr Trump said he had predicted the No vote the day before the 2014 referendum when he was visiting his first golf course at the Menie Estate in Aberdeenshire. He added: 'I do say that when they made that deal (to hold a referendum) somebody said that it was - and I remember this very distinctly, I said 'could they do this all the time?'. 'There was a little bit of a restriction, like 50 or 75 years before you could take another vote because, you know, a country can't go through that too much.' SNP figures including Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon had said at the time the vote was a 'once in a generation opportunity'. Mr Trump made the comments ahead of Mr Swinney attending a dinner with him in Aberdeenshire last night and the opening of his second course at Menie today (TUE). Sir Keir said: 'I believe in a stronger Scotland in a better United Kingdom and I think that at a time like this when it is quite clear there is uncertainty and volatility around the world, the strength of the United Kingdom together is very important for all four nations, very important for Scotland. 'That should be our priority, that should be our focus - not on the politics which feels like the politics of yesteryear now at a time like this. 'I think that the First Minister should probably focus more on his delivery in Scotland than on his constitutional issues, and we might have a better health service in Scotland. 'At a time like this, I think the United Kingdom is always stronger as four nations, I think that is better for all four nations.' It comes as Mr Swinney was condemned for an 'absurd' assertion that a generation has passed since Scots rejected independence. In a desperate attempt to relaunch the SNP's failing bid to break up the UK, he has claimed a majority for the party in next year's Holyrood elections would be a mandate for another referendum. He was accused of trying to silence SNP critics and was mocked for the claim that a generation has passed less than 11 years since Scots voted decisively to stay in the UK. Then First Minister Alex Salmond and his successor Nicola Sturgeon previously described the 2014 referendum as a 'once in a generation opportunity'. After unveiling the latest bid to secure independence, Mr Swinney yesterday said: 'There is fundamentally a democratic issue here that people in Scotland in a voluntary union must be able to choose their own democratic future, and that was accepted after the SNP won a majority in the Scottish Parliament, on our own, in 2011. 'I am making the point that, having established that precedent, we must be in a position to be able to give the people of Scotland the choice about their constitutional future. 'There is now, by the time we get to 2030, going to be a million people who were not eligible to vote in the last referendum in 2014. 'A generation has now passed and I want to make sure that people in Scotland who want our country to have a choice about independence are able to do so in a democratic and legitimate fashion that can enable the establishment of an independent country as a consequence of a Yes vote. 'And the way to do that is the way we did it in 2011, which is to elect a majority of SNP MSPs to the Scottish Parliament.' In the 2014 vote, 55 per cent of Scots voted No and 45 per cent Yes. Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said: 'It's patently absurd - and John Swinney knows it - to claim that 11 years constitutes 'a generation'. 'John Swinney is like a broken record. In a bid to silence internal critics of his weak leadership, he has thrown diehard nationalists some more red meat on the one issue they all agree on: independence. 'Ordinary Scots are sick and tired of the SNP's obsession with breaking up the UK. The public want John Swinney to focus on fixing the damage his government has done in decimating essential services such as schools and the NHS at the same time as making Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK.' Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: 'This SNP government has lost its way and ran out of ideas - while one in six Scots suffer on an NHS waiting list.
Reuters
19 minutes ago
- Reuters
Global stock index falls, euro slides after US-EU trade deal
NEW YORK, LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A global equities gauge fell on Monday while the euro took a tumble and U.S. Treasuries sold off as investors cautiously greeted a trade agreement between the U.S. and European Union at the start of an action-packed week for markets. The weekend's framework trade deal, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described as the best the bloc could get, will impose a 15% import tariff on most EU goods while the EU is set to spend $600 billion on U.S. investments and open up some important parts of its market. While the accord may avert a damaging standoff between the trading partners, which account for almost a third of global trade, some European capitals complained it was lopsided in favor of Washington. "The brunt of it is being felt by the euro because when you really step back, Europe gave up a lot. Relatively speaking, the U.S. didn't give up anything," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Equity investor enthusiasm over the trade deal likely faded as market participants looked into the details and questioned how Europe's requirement for spending on U.S. defense and energy would be enforced, Janasiewicz added. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab fell 2.78 points, or 0.30%, to 938.48. The index, representing stocks from 47 countries, had boasted five record closes out of the prior six trading sessions. Monday's tepid equity action followed a series of record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, thanks to solid quarterly earnings and bets on megacaps and artificial intelligence stocks as well as optimism that the U.S. would ultimately reach agreements with its trading partners. On Wall Street the 500 (.SPX), opens new tab barely managed to squeak another record close, its sixth in a row, by finishing up 1.13 points, or 0.02%, at 6,389.77. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab also managed a record close with a gain of 70.27 points, or 0.33%, to 21,178.58. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 64.36 points, or 0.14%, to 44,837.56, still short of its early December record close. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX), opens new tab index closed down 0.22%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3), opens new tab fell 0.15%. Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, said that removing uncertainty was a relief along with the 15% tariff rate, which was lower than some of "the ridiculous numbers" being talked about in early April. "You've got some certainty going forward, and you've got numbers that seem reasonable," he said. Orlando said investors should be patient since the S&P 500 had already risen about 32% from its April lows. He pointed to U.S. inflation and payroll reports and a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting all due in the week ahead, along with earnings reports from megacaps including Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab. Europe's agreement follows U.S. pacts with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines made last week. Other countries were still scrambling to make deals ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline. Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials met in Stockholm on Monday for more than five hours of talks aimed at resolving longstanding economic disputes at the centre of a between the world's top two economies, seeking to extend a truce by three months. In currencies, the dollar rose against major currencies after the weekend's trade pact, with investors also looking to this week's U.S. and Japanese central bank meetings. The euro was down 1.27% at $1.1591. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.62% to 148.57. The dollar index <=USD>, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 1.07% to 98.65. In U.S. Treasuries, yields rose following the trade deal and U.S. bond auctions. The next U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting kicks off on Tuesday and the Fed is not expected to change interest rates this week. The central bank has been cautious on rate cuts as officials want to determine the impact of tariffs on inflation before making decisions. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 2.8 basis points to 4.414%, from 4.386% late on Friday while the 30-year bond yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.9616%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 1.1 basis points to 3.928%. In energy markets, oil prices rallied more than 2% after the U.S.-EU deal and Trump's announcement that he would set for Russia to end its war in Ukraine or face severe tariffs. U.S. crude settled up 2.38% or $1.55, at $66.71 per barrel while Brent finished at $70.04 per barrel, up 2.34%, or $1.60 on the day. In precious metals, gold fell to a near three-week low as the trade accord lifted the dollar and risk sentiment, while investors awaited fresh cues on rate policy from this week's Fed meeting. Spot gold fell 0.56% to $3,317.31 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.74% to $3,309.20 an ounce.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Trump and Starmer trade compliments but defend differences
EDINBURGH/TURNBERRY, Scotland, July 28 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump spoke warmly about the "special relationship" with Britain on Monday, lavishing praise on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, King Charles, and his own mother's Scottish homeland from the ballroom of his Turnberry golf club. But mixed in with the compliments were warnings for Starmer on energy policy, immigration, and tax, as well as a pointed attack on London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Starmer's political ally. Seated side-by-side, Starmer and Trump fielded more than an hour of questions from media in a whirlwind tour of global affairs that included setting a new deadline for Russia to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine and announcing food centres to ease starvation in Gaza. When it came to the Anglo-American relationship, Trump's often outspoken - and sometimes confrontational approach - to such media appearances was replaced with a charm offensive. "The prime minister, he's been so supportive of us and so strong and so respected, and I respect him much more today than I did before, because I just met his wife and family. He's got a perfect wife, and that's never easy to achieve," Trump said. Starmer, who spoke for only a small fraction of the 72 minutes the two spent in the gaze of the world's media, reciprocated the compliments freely in what was the latest chapter of a burgeoning friendship between the two leaders, who hail from opposing sides of the political spectrum. "It's fantastic to be here - thank you for your hospitality - and to see this amazing golf course. I'll invite you to a football ground at some stage, and we can exchange sports," Starmer joked. However, the British leader jumped in when Trump - who argued publicly with London mayor Khan during his first term as president - said Khan was doing a bad job running the British capital and called him a "nasty person". "He's a friend of mine, I should add," Starmer interjected, before Trump continued: "I think he's done a terrible job." Starmer listened to Trump talk about cutting immigration - an area in which the British leader is seen by the public as failing. Trump said that policy was key to his 2024 U.S. election win, alongside his promises to reduce taxes and boost the economy. Starmer's government, only a year after winning a landslide victory, is facing a fiscal crunch caused by a stagnant economy, and many analysts expect tax increases later this year to plug the gap. On energy, the two talked up the potential of small nuclear reactors, but set out opposing positions on other sources of power. Trump gently urged Starmer to make more of Britain's oil and gas resources and renewed criticism of the offshore wind turbines that dot the coast near his golf course, and which form a key part of Starmer's plans for a carbon-free energy system. "Wind is a disaster," Trump said. "It's a very expensive energy, it's a very ugly energy and we won't allow it in the United States." Starmer replied: "We believe in a mix." Smoothing over their differences on policy, the two looked ahead to Trump's next visit in September when he will be hosted by King Charles for a state visit. "I hate to say it, but nobody does it like you people in terms of the pomp and ceremony," Trump said. "I'm a big fan of King Charles. I've known him for quite a while. Great guy, great person." After accepting an invitation presented to him during Starmer's visit to the White House in February, Trump will become the first world leader in modern times to undertake two state visits to Britain. "This is going to be a historic occasion, and we're all very much looking forward to it," Starmer said. In May, Washington and London announced the first bilateral trade deal made in the wake of steep new tariffs on global imports imposed by Trump. Trump's visit concludes on Tuesday, when he will open a new golf course near Aberdeen named after his mother, Mary Anne MacLeod, who was born and raised on a Scottish island before emigrating to the United States.
