10 Career Moves To Prepare For The Next Recession

Forbes

23-05-2025

Put in the extra time now to prepare for the next recession. 10 Career Moves Every Professional ... More Should Make
Recession odds are below 50% but still in the double-digits, if you look at recent estimates from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. However, Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok puts the odds of recession in 2025 as high as 90%! If leading investment professionals are bracing for a downturn, you should too.
From a career standpoint, recession risks include losing your job if your company's financial situation faces a setback. Your job search may also take longer, as employers pause hiring and those that do hire contend with more candidates competing for fewer openings. Even if you keep your job, raises and bonuses may be lower or non-existent, advancement might be slow, or your role might be negatively restructured to include taking over the responsibilities of staff that are let go.
To prepare for the next recession, make these 10 career moves now:
You want to know what you're owed and have time to ask questions well before a restructuring or layoff hits you. Pull up your company HR manual, and read what it says about severance, PTO (paid time off) accrual, and vesting. You actually can negotiate severance, so you want to know what the starting point is and what that's based on. Knowing how your PTO accrues is important because, if it accrues over time, pushing out your end date (if you quit or lose your job) might squeak out some extra hours or days of PTO. Finally, vesting of your retirement plan match, profit-share or other bonus income typically hinges on your tenure, so end date matters here too. A smartly planned exit could mean hundreds or thousands of additional dollars in PTO pay and/or additional vesting, just for picking the right end date.
Confirm with your manager what your most important tasks and projects are. Tap other senior executives to find out what business lines and regions the company is prioritizing. Ideally you're working in headquarters, but if you're in another office, pay attention to whether the company continues to invest in your area. If you're dedicated to a specific product line and/ or client group, check that your work is still a priority. Working on your company's top priorities doesn't guarantee your job, but it definitely helps over working on things your company is divesting or paying less attention to.
In addition to working on priority initiatives, make sure your role and results are a priority. Manage your time to focus on what matters. Does your individual work positively impact the bottom line, or at least help others make a positive impact? If you were let go, would the company be negatively impacted? Do you have unique expertise or skill(s) that would be tough to hire for? If you can confidently answer Yes to these questions, then you're a valuable asset to the company. If you're not sure, refine your job responsibilities and what you focus on till you can answer positively to these questions.
Of course, it's not enough to be doing a good job. Someone has to know about it, and not just your manager in case they are let go, don't advocate on your behalf or aren't influential in key decisions. If you don't have other senior leaders aside from your manager and above your manager who know your work and would speak positively on your behalf, prioritize nurturing these relationships. Look for ways to increase your visibility around the company, including presenting at meetings or getting involved with cross-functional projects.
Increasing your visibility with other senior leaders helps, but don't forget to expand the support you get from peers and people junior to you. That seemingly entry-level staffer might have the ear of an influential executive. Your colleague in a completely different business unit or even region might have news about a company pivot that could affect you. In a recession, having support outside your immediate area diversifies the information you hear and the options you have.
Increasing your visibility within the company only helps if your company survives and thrives in the next recession. Ideally, you also expand your support outside the company by nurturing your professional network of former colleagues, former bosses, even classmates from your alma mater. Maintain a strong network outside your company, outside your industry and even outside your home country.
Your resume and LinkedIn profile might not be updated for your latest wins at work or skills you have picked up recently. It might have been years since you have had to write a cover letter or introduce yourself at a networking event. Review and update your job search material now, while you're still employed and not in the throes of a layoff.
In a worst-case scenario of losing your job unexpectedly, how much runway do you have to land your next role? In addition to severance (see first point in this checklist!), calculate your savings, identify any lines of credit you have access to, and review expenses you could trim quickly if needed.
In a recession, a job search can take longer than you expect. How quickly could you land consulting work? You might consider starting a side gig now so it's up and running if needed. What other income is available to you outside your job? This could include your partner's income, so have them go through the first five points of this checklist to assess how secure their position is.
You may not want to leave your job, but if your company is not doing well, consider starting a job search preemptively. Look at job postings, research companies, talk to recruiters and hiring managers, and take interviews. You can always decline offers that come up, but this way, you flex your job search skills, see what's available and have a real-life indication of how marketable you are.