Latest news with #TorstenSlok
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Tariffs didn't bite the stock market in May, but June could be a different story
The strong performance for stocks in May could be a sign that Wall Street has decided to shrug off President Donald Trump's tariff plans, but there are some reasons to think the impact on trade will be harder to avoid in the months ahead. For one, global trade does not appear to have found a new equilibrium just yet. Container ship departures from China to the U.S. are trending lower again, and as of late May were down almost half from the same time a year ago, according to a chart shared by Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok. "The court ruling and reversal over the past few days is not making it easier for businesses to decide if they should import now or wait," Slok said in a note Friday. Add in Trump's accusation on Friday that China has " violated " the preliminary trade agreement reached earlier this month, and it's hard to blame companies who might be hesitant to place that next import order. Inflation is another factor that is still up in the air. Friday's personal consumption index data came in a tick lower than expected , but that reading was for April. Cayla Seder, macro multi-asset strategist at State Street, told CNBC that her firm's data shows a recent uptick in prices for household goods and electronics. That could lead to continued pressure on stocks like tech hardware and retail, many of which are already trailing the broader market in 2025. XRT YTD mountain This retail ETF is underperforming the S & P 500 in 2025. "You see a preference for producers and strong selling of retailers ... You have producers who are passing on the price increases to retailers, and now it's up to retailers to pass those price increases on to the consumer," Seder said. Of course, just because the impact of tariffs may not be fully seen yet does not mean the stock market must re-test its lows from April. Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown said on Friday's " Halftime Report " on CNBC that the issues of some companies, such as struggling retailers, "pale in comparison" to the stronger parts of the market, like Big Tech. But with most trade routes operating under an ever changing and legally uncertain cloud, the summer just might present more challenges for the current bull market.
Forbes
23-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
10 Career Moves To Prepare For The Next Recession
Put in the extra time now to prepare for the next recession. 10 Career Moves Every Professional ... More Should Make Recession odds are below 50% but still in the double-digits, if you look at recent estimates from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. However, Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok puts the odds of recession in 2025 as high as 90%! If leading investment professionals are bracing for a downturn, you should too. From a career standpoint, recession risks include losing your job if your company's financial situation faces a setback. Your job search may also take longer, as employers pause hiring and those that do hire contend with more candidates competing for fewer openings. Even if you keep your job, raises and bonuses may be lower or non-existent, advancement might be slow, or your role might be negatively restructured to include taking over the responsibilities of staff that are let go. To prepare for the next recession, make these 10 career moves now: You want to know what you're owed and have time to ask questions well before a restructuring or layoff hits you. Pull up your company HR manual, and read what it says about severance, PTO (paid time off) accrual, and vesting. You actually can negotiate severance, so you want to know what the starting point is and what that's based on. Knowing how your PTO accrues is important because, if it accrues over time, pushing out your end date (if you quit or lose your job) might squeak out some extra hours or days of PTO. Finally, vesting of your retirement plan match, profit-share or other bonus income typically hinges on your tenure, so end date matters here too. A smartly planned exit could mean hundreds or thousands of additional dollars in PTO pay and/or additional vesting, just for picking the right end date. Confirm with your manager what your most important tasks and projects are. Tap other senior executives to find out what business lines and regions the company is prioritizing. Ideally you're working in headquarters, but if you're in another office, pay attention to whether the company continues to invest in your area. If you're dedicated to a specific product line and/ or client group, check that your work is still a priority. Working on your company's top priorities doesn't guarantee your job, but it definitely helps over working on things your company is divesting or paying less attention to. In addition to working on priority initiatives, make sure your role and results are a priority. Manage your time to focus on what matters. Does your individual work positively impact the bottom line, or at least help others make a positive impact? If you were let go, would the company be negatively impacted? Do you have unique expertise or skill(s) that would be tough to hire for? If you can confidently answer Yes to these questions, then you're a valuable asset to the company. If you're not sure, refine your job responsibilities and what you focus on till you can answer positively to these questions. Of course, it's not enough to be doing a good job. Someone has to know about it, and not just your manager in case they are let go, don't advocate on your behalf or aren't influential in key decisions. If you don't have other senior leaders aside from your manager and above your manager who know your work and would speak positively on your behalf, prioritize nurturing these relationships. Look for ways to increase your visibility around the company, including presenting at meetings or getting involved with cross-functional projects. Increasing your visibility with other senior leaders helps, but don't forget to expand the support you get from peers and people junior to you. That seemingly entry-level staffer might have the ear of an influential executive. Your colleague in a completely different business unit or even region might have news about a company pivot that could affect you. In a recession, having support outside your immediate area diversifies the information you hear and the options you have. Increasing your visibility within the company only helps if your company survives and thrives in the next recession. Ideally, you also expand your support outside the company by nurturing your professional network of former colleagues, former bosses, even classmates from your alma mater. Maintain a strong network outside your company, outside your industry and even outside your home country. Your resume and LinkedIn profile might not be updated for your latest wins at work or skills you have picked up recently. It might have been years since you have had to write a cover letter or introduce yourself at a networking event. Review and update your job search material now, while you're still employed and not in the throes of a layoff. In a worst-case scenario of losing your job unexpectedly, how much runway do you have to land your next role? In addition to severance (see first point in this checklist!), calculate your savings, identify any lines of credit you have access to, and review expenses you could trim quickly if needed. In a recession, a job search can take longer than you expect. How quickly could you land consulting work? You might consider starting a side gig now so it's up and running if needed. What other income is available to you outside your job? This could include your partner's income, so have them go through the first five points of this checklist to assess how secure their position is. You may not want to leave your job, but if your company is not doing well, consider starting a job search preemptively. Look at job postings, research companies, talk to recruiters and hiring managers, and take interviews. You can always decline offers that come up, but this way, you flex your job search skills, see what's available and have a real-life indication of how marketable you are.
CNBC
23-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok
Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how tariffs could impact inflation and rates, macro outlooks, and more.
CNBC
23-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok: This is essentially stagflation
Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how tariffs could impact inflation and rates, macro outlooks, and more.
Bloomberg
20-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Economist Slok Says ‘List of Worries Is Indeed Growing'
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, discusses the growing list of worries for the US economy, housing market weakness, expectations for a 'stagflation situation' in the US economy, and a potential longer lasting impact from inflation. (Source: Bloomberg)
