D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): Overvalued Stock or Real Revenue Turnaround? Two Investors Weigh In
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However, two investors see a different picture altogether.
The Neutral Case: Pythia Research
Pythia Research sees D-Wave as uniquely positioned in the quantum space. Unlike most peers still in development, the company already has customers using its hardware and cloud-based platform in production. In Q1 2025, revenue reached $15 million, up from $2.5 million in the prior year. Gross margin improved to 93.6%, and the company ended the quarter with $304 million in cash.
Pythia Research points to real-world deployments, such as Ford Otosan (F), reducing vehicle scheduling times from 30 minutes to under 5 using D-Wave Quantum Inc.'s technology. The company's hybrid solvers now support up to 2 million variables, with potential applications in logistics, manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals. With the commercial quantum market expected to grow from $2.1 billion in 2024 to over $20.5 billion by 2034, Pythia Research believes D-Wave Quantum is well-positioned to benefit.
However, Pythia Research maintains a Hold rating and sees one glaring warning sign. It notes that while D-Wave Quantum expanded to 133 customers in Q1, 25% of which are Forbes Global 2000 companies, its revenue remains heavily concentrated, with 85% tied to a single $12.6 million system sale that highlights both enterprise traction and deal-dependent risk.
The Bear Case: Bears of Wall Street
Bears of Wall Street presents a more bearish view. As with Pythia Research, it sees a glowing hazard sign from the concentrated revenue stream, the majority of which comes from a single hardware sale to the Julich Supercomputing Centre. QCaaS revenue remained flat at $1.53 million, and deferred revenue dropped from $19.4 million to $6.3 million.
Bears of Wall Street also notes that D-Wave Quantum continues to fund operations through equity. The share count has increased more than 80% year-over-year. R&D expenses are over 400% of revenue, and adjusted EBITDA remains negative. The company trades at over 240x forward sales, a level they view as difficult to support without more substantial recurring revenue. Their valuation model estimates the stock to be worth $5.21 per share.
average stock price target for QBTS is $18, implying an 11.33% downside.
Takeaway
D-Wave Quantum Inc. is generating real interest from institutional investors and enterprise customers. At the same time, its financials show a company still reliant on large one-time deals. Upcoming earnings and traction in QCaaS growth will be important for both bullish and bearish investors to watch closely.
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