Mexico, EU Tariff Threats Follow Double-Digit Trend: How Shoe Firms Are Responding

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21 hours ago

Where will the tariff sweep settle?
No one knows yet what the way forward will be, but a likely double-digit percent tariff for all countries seems to be where rates are headed.
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Based on the reciprocal tariff rates disclosed on April 2 by American President Donald Trump and the current trend in tariff rates, including announced 'trade deals,' double-digit percent rates not far from the reciprocal rates from April 2 are where rates could end up if trade deals aren't reached by Aug. 1.
Based on an outline of agreed terms, the U.S. has said it has two 'trade deals,' one with the U.K. for a 10 percent tariff and the other with Vietnam at 30 percent. Negotiations move to the next stage where the U.S. and the U.K. and Vietnam continue with talks to finalized the trade terms. The U.S. also said it continues its talks with China for a trade agreement. The 90-tariff pause that has rates temporarily lowered to 30 percent is slated to end on Aug. 12.
The reciprocal rate for the U.K. was 10 percent, 46 percent for Vietnam, and 34 percent for China, although that later escalated to as high as 145 percent for certain imported items. That had footwear firms pondering their cost structure going forward, as they worried about their ability to stay in business while maintaining some profitability against a tariff backdrop. While there was a global 90-day reprieve on tariffs to allow for trade talks, Aug. 1 seems to be the cut-off date after Trump declared on his social media platform Truth Social that there would be no more extensions. And nearly four months later, the only certainty shoe companies have is that costs are going up.
American President Donald Trump on Saturday levied a 30 percent tariff on imported goods from two of the nation's largest trading partners, the European Union (EU) and Mexico, starting Aug. 1. Letters were sent to EU Commission President Ursula von de Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Also included in both letters was a reference to a higher tariff for transshipped goods and that the new levy excludes existing sectoral tariffs.
The EU so far has postponed retaliatory tariffs, hoping to hash out a deal with the Trump administration before Aug. 1. But EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also said in a statement Saturday that the EU would take necessary steps to safeguard its interests, including retaliatory tariffs if talks fail. Trump's letter to the EU Chief says the EU has 'one of our largest Trade Deficits,' noting that 30 percent is 'far less than what is needed to eliminate' the deficit. The initial reciprocal rate was 20 percent, but that later was raised to 30 percent and then to 50 percent.
Trump said in his letter to Sheinbaum that while the country has helped to secure the border, 'what Mexico has done, is not enough.' Trump in February assessed a 25 percent tariff on Mexico after claiming that America's southern border neighbor hadn't done enough to bar the 'pouring' in of drugs like fentanyl into the U.S., nor had it been able to control the activities of criminal cartels. Following a month-long delay to allow for negotiations, the levy was imposed in March, only to be delayed again a few days later. Trump's claims resurfaced in him letter to Sheinbaum as reasons for the new tariff. And while the letter didn't address covered goods under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, those imports are expected to remain duty-free through at least July 2026, when the trade agreement will be subject to a review. Trade talks are expected to continue over the next few weeks.
A Goldman Sachs economics report on the EU noted that Trump's latest threat 'might well be a negotiating tactic,' noting that a 'framework agreement' would likely include a 10 percent tariff rate on all goods and 25 percent for certain other categories, such as steel and aluminum and on critical goods such as pharmaceuticals.
A flurry of tariff letters were sent out last week that included Cambodia, Indonesia and India, countries where their economies rely on footwear production. Cambodia was assessed as 36 percent duty rate, with Indonesia at 32 percent. India faces a 26 percent reciprocal tariff rate, but hasn't yet received the dreaded tariff letter, likely because Trump said the two countries are close to a trade deal. China is the largest shoe producer for imports to the U.S., followed by India. Vietnam is also a large shoe producer in the athletic footwear sector.
While shoe prices in general have been slightly lower versus year-ago levels, the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America's chief economist Gary Raines said recently there is 'mounting evidence upstream in the supply chain of surging average duties per pair on footwear imports.' He said that's an indication that higher duties could soon push the average landed costs of footwear imports higher, which in turn may result in retail footwear prices climbing higher later this year.
Some brands have implemented price increases, although they seem to be working hard to cap the higher prices to an amount that's manageable for consumers.
Steven Madden Ltd. is one example where the company has 'selectively' raised prices to consumers and wholesale customers for its fall items. The increases weren't across the board, and there were differing amounts for select items based on brand, product category and style. While some items will see a 20 percent increase, the average uptick will be in the 10 percent range.
Nike Inc. raised some prices in June, averaging between $2 and $10, but only for select items. Footwear prices between $100 and $150 will see increases up to $5, and shoes starting at $150 and higher will see increases up to $10. A large portion of its assortment mix will remain at their current price range. And in a nod to 'families and the upcoming back-to-school season,' there are no increases on any kids' products, whether for footwear or apparel. Items under $100 will stay the same, and Nike's popular Air Force 1 sneaker will stay at $115. Moreover, there are no planned price increases for any Jordan product.
Shoe brands showing at the June market week — the FFANY and FSNYE shows — appeared to be taking Trumps's tariff threats in stride. Some brands, such as Guess, were able to keep wholesale prices steady. And even when a wholesale price increase was warranted, such as at Söfft Shoe Co.'s new men's shoe brand Align, the increase of $3 translated to just a $5 uptick at retail. That kind of increase — Align shoes average between $150 to $180 at retail — is in line with Nike's sneakers that are priced at $150 and higher.
Those price adjustments suggests that shoe firms are working with their upstream vendors to keep price changes within a certain range at the consumer level, even if it means brands and suppliers might need to each absorb some of higher costs resulting from tariff increases.
Meanwhile, credit ratings firms Fitch Ratings said Monday that discretionary retailers are expected to 'experience near-term operating challenges resulting from the softening consumer sentiment and the evolving tariff policy.' What isn't clear is whether brands and retailers will provide third quarter guidance when they begin posting second quarter earnings results in a few weeks. A Placer.ai report indicated that June foot traffic has decelerated, although that could be due to rainy weather during the tail end of the month and the pulling forward of purchases earlier in the year as consumers bought goods early to get ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases.
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