Nerves are on a knife-edge ahead of the Trump-Putin summit

Hindustan Times

a day ago

As Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin prepare to meet in Alaska on August 15th in a historic summit, tensions are building inexorably. On the frontlines in Ukraine, Russian forces have been advancing in Donetsk amid bloody fighting, in an apparent push by the Kremlin to secure terrain and squeeze Ukraine ahead of the talks. After months of escalation, threats and U-turns, Mr Trump's position on Ukraine is unclear, with the president muddying the waters further with contradictory statements on August 11th. He has put heat on the Kremlin by imposing an extra 25% tariff on India for its purchases of Russian oil, yet has also horrified Ukraine by suggesting it will have to cede more territory in any deal. Two competing White House envoys have been scrambling America's diplomatic position, creating chaos. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, French President, and Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor and Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine attend a candle ceremony at Maidan Square during a visit to Ukraine.(No 10 Downing Street)
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European countries are outraged that Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, will not be present in Alaska as a potential deal is cut on Ukraine. And they fear that Mr Trump will repeat his history of striking ill-considered agreements with whoever gets into a room with him. In an effort to limit the damage, on August 13th they are due to hold a warm-up virtual summit. Organised at the last minute by Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor, it is due to feature European leaders and Mr Zelensky with Mr Trump and J.D. Vance, the vice-president, making an appearance. The idea is that Europe and Ukraine will set out the limits beyond which they will not go, binding-in Mr Trump. Good luck.
For Mr Putin the summit in Alaska is a victory in itself, a sign of Russia's great-power status. He believes that the conflict in Ukraine is really a proxy war started by the West and has craved a meeting at which America and Russia divide their spheres of influence, as they did at Yalta at the end of the second world war. He will relish the humiliation of European leaders who have insisted that nothing about Ukraine should be decided without Ukraine.
Mr Putin has a wish list. He wants America to agree to de facto recognition of Russia's territorial gains. He also wants a declaration that Ukraine cannot join NATO and may demand caps on Ukraine's military capacity and the supply of weapons to it, and that elections are held. Other bargaining chips include a lifting of sanctions, and the status of $300bn of frozen Russian assets, which at one end of the spectrum could be permanently forfeited to Ukraine, and at the other, released to Russia. In talks in February, American and Russian officials even discussed a grander bargain including economic deals in the Arctic.
Some in Russia's elite predict a pragmatic end to a war that has been disastrous for their interests. One says the choice of Alaska, a former territory of the Russian empire purchased by America in 1867, is a friendly symbolic gesture. Russian state media are cautiously optimistic; an anchor on Russia 1's Sunday news programme claimed the two presidents have 'a specific plan to end the fighting'. Another show ridiculed European leaders, advising them to 'shut up' and leave negotiations to 'two major nuclear powers'.
Others are more sceptical. Vladimir Solovyov, one of Mr Putin's propagandists, warned the summit would not end the war. And nationalistic bloggers are caustic. 'It's hard to imagine a more humiliating meeting than one in Alaska, in the backwoods, where rednecks live with bears,' wrote Larkin, the author of a Telegram channel. 'It seems like a sophisticated mockery—meeting on enemy territory, which, moreover, once belonged to us,' wrote a poster on Regnum, another Telegram channel.
Amid the swirl of America's stance and Russia's propaganda, European leaders are worried that in Alaska Mr Trump will strike a grubby deal and declare diplomatic victory. That could leave Ukraine and its European allies in an impossible position: sign up to the deal and accept a rewriting of European security over their heads, or reject it and risk Mr Trump walking away and tapering back intelligence and military support for Ukraine. On August 1oth Mr Vance said, 'We're done with the funding of the Ukraine war business.'
The virtual summit is designed to forestall that. The Europeans have three goals. The first regards sequencing. While they recognise that a deal may require de facto recognition of some of Russia's gains, they want talks on giving up land to begin only after a ceasefire along the current front line—or at least a 'reduction of hostilities', as their statement on August 10th put it. Mr Trump's calls for 'land swaps' have not inspired confidence. A suggestion by Mark Rutte, NATO's boss and Europe's chief Trump whisperer, that Europe prepare for 'effectual recognition' was not well received.
Europe's second goal is a security backstop for Ukraine. NATO membership is off the table for now. But Mr Zelensky cannot agree to a ceasefire without safeguards against fresh Russian aggression. (In particular he could not accept a limit on the size of Ukraine's armed forces unless it were high enough to be meaningless.) On August 12th every EU leader, bar Hungary's Viktor Orban, declared European countries were 'ready to further contribute to security guarantees'. At a minimum, Europeans will ask Mr Trump to ensure negotiations on guarantees will be concurrent with the ceasefire discussion, rather than following it. They may also try to convince him to punish any Russian ceasefire violation with fresh sanctions.
The Europeans have a final objective: they want to steel Mr Trump for his encounter with Mr Putin, a master manipulator, and counsel him not to act with haste. 'The path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine,' they insisted in their statement. On August 10th Mr Zelensky worried that America's president could be 'deceived'.
Reassuringly for those worried that Mr Trump is too eager for a deal, he left himself plenty of room on August 11th for the summit to go wrong, saying that it was a 'feel-out meeting' and he was prepared to walk away. 'I may say, 'Lots of luck, keep fighting.' Or I may say, 'We can make a deal''. He said he had been 'the toughest' with Russia in his first term, having stopped the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and delivered the first Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. He said he would consult with Mr Zelensky and European leaders before and after the meeting. 'I'm going to get everybody's ideas'.
But he also made clear he would decide what constituted a 'fair deal' and seemed to shrug off Europeans' exhortations about standing firm against Russia, saying they 'very much rely on me'. Mr Trump took strange turns, referring to Alaska as 'Russia', and musing about restoring Ukraine's lost 'oceanfront property'. Despite expressing irritation with Mr Putin for continuing the war, Mr Trump let slip his admiration for Russia, which 'beat Napoleon'. He mocked arguments that Mr Zelensky did not have the constitutional authority to give up territory. 'He's got approval to go into war, kill everybody, but he needs approval to do a land swap because there'll be some land swapping going on.'' And he made clear his continuing animus against Ukraine, blaming it for being invaded. 'I get along with Zelensky, but I disagree with what he's done, very, very severely disagree. This is a war that should have never happened.' Music to Mr Putin's ears.