Budget 2026 day set for October amid rising US tariff pressure and deficit uncertainty
The Government has outlined a €9.4 billion package as part of the Summer Economic Statement, including €7.9 billion in additional public spending and €1.5 billion in tax cuts.
However, this package was agreed upon before the recent introduction of 15% tariffs on exports to the United States.
This new rate poses a serious threat to Irish trade, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector.
US President Donald Trump has also hinted at even higher tariffs in the future, mainly due to the trade surplus between the two nations.
Despite the ongoing uncertainty, the Government is maintaining its commitment to long-term investment and fiscal stability.
Ministers Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers have ruled out one-off cost-of-living payments, insisting that Budget 2026 will prioritise sustainability over short-term relief.
Their approach reflects caution in a fragile global environment, with the business lobby Ibec and other economic observers urging a measured and prudent strategy.
The Summer Economic Statement stated that €5.9 billion of the increased expenditure will go to current spending, with €2 billion directed towards capital investment under the National Development Plan.
However, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) has raised concerns about the realism of these projections.
It warns that spending overruns are likely in 2026, pointing to evidence that current spending this year has already exceeded budget targets by as much as €2 billion.
IFAC also projects a budget deficit of nearly €11 billion next year which is about 3.2% of GNI, excluding corporate tax windfalls.
It has criticised the government's signalling that the budget package could be reduced if the global trade environment worsens, arguing that this runs counter to standard economic practice, which recommends increased support during periods of downturn.
Nevertheless, Ireland's tax revenues remain strong.
Corporate tax receipts have already reached €16 billion this year, with further growth expected in 2026 due to changes in international tax rules.
Income tax and VAT revenues are also holding steady, giving the government some room to manoeuvre despite looming deficits.
All eyes will be on budget day on October 7th and the preceding weeks for any changes in the US President's tariff rates, which have an outsized impact on the very US-reliant Irish economy.
See More: Economy, Irish Budget, Paschal Donohoe, US Tariffs
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The Journal
an hour ago
- The Journal
Debunked: Irish influencer's video peddles baseless claims about immigration and crime in Sweden
AN IRISH ANTI-IMMIGRATION video which has been viewed tens of thousands of times makes a string of false claims about Sweden — including that ethnic Swedes will be a minority within a decade and that the country suffers more bombings than any nation not at war. In the video, a man called Michael McCarthy speaks directly to the camera as he makes a series of claims. As well as the other statements, he also says that the city of Malmö is as dangerous as Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. None of these claims are backed up by facts. McCarthy has previously posted misleading claims about migrants, many of which have been debunked. The Journal previously fact-checked claims by him that children are being taught Islamic prayers in schools; that footage of a woman being attacked in a church was from Europe; and that the majority of Irish people disagree with the EU . His video on Sweden has been viewed more than 43,000 times since being posted to Facebook on 2 August. So, how do these claims stack up? A Swedish minority 'This is disappearing,' McCarthy says in the video as an image of three white-skinned blonde adults wearing blue and yellow clothing appears on screen. 'Swedish people are set to become a minority in Sweden in just ten years time,' he says. As he speaks, a chart appears showing the 'annual decline' of white Europeans in a number of countries, and the projected year when the population of white people is set to reach under 50%. A screenshot of the chart from the video. McCarthy seems to be using 'white' and 'Swedish' interchangeably here, given the words he uses and what the chart says. But even if you treat these two categories the same, the stats still don't work. No source for this chart is given. A search for the terms used in the chart does not shed any light on the source of the data, and directs back to versions of McCarthy's video on different social media platforms. The chart in McCarthy's video claims that 67% of Swedish people are white in 2025, and this is falling by 1.1% a year. Even if these figures were true, they do not imply white people would be in a minority in ten years. Whether he means a 1.1% decrease per year, or a drop of 1.1 percentage points each year, you still get a figure higher than 50%. However, there are compelling reasons to think that these figures are false. Sweden does not officially collect racial or ethnic statistics due to a legal prohibition , and 'white' is not a recognised category in official statistics, let alone a rate of decrease in white people. There is no indication of where the 1.1% figure comes from, and it is not backed up by official statistics. The SCB (Sweden's state statistics agency) does however collect data on where each person in the country was born, as well as the nationality of their parents. These figures are what are usually cited when estimates of Sweden's ethnic makeup are given, such as in the CIA World Factbook , which says Sweden is 79.6% ethnically Swedish. This information on parents nationality and country of birth like the most likely candidate for where the 67% figure came from. This was the proportion of Swedish citizens from 2018-2020 that were born in Sweden to two Swedish parents. It should be noted that these statistics give us no information about what percentage of the population is white, which McCarthy seems to conflate with being Swedish. People born in Sweden to two parents who were also born in Sweden may be non-white. And people born in a different country can also be white, or be born to two Swedish parents. To give an idea of the breakdown , last year, more than 208,000 Swedish residents that were born outside the state were from other Nordic countries, and almost 380,000 were from non-Nordic EU countries. A further almost 350,000 were from non-EU European countries, including almost 60 thousand from Yugoslavia, a country that hasn't existed since the early nineties. In either case, there is no reliable source corroborating the claims made in the video. Bombings McCarthy goes on to claim that this supposed change in demographics will cause Sweden to become particularly dangerous. Advertisement While there has been a significant increase in organised crime in Sweden since about 2005, the claims McCarthy makes about this subject are, again, not based in fact. 'Sweden has the most bombings of any country not in a war,' McCarthy says. 'Sweden! A place people probably thought was very safe.' So, is this true? The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention has specific statistics on this, showing that there have been 129 explosions associated with criminal violence in 2024. It was 149 in 2023 and 90 in 2022. However, there are other countries not at war that have worse figures than this. For example, in 2024, 248 bombings were recorded in Pakistan — a country that is not at war (albeit one that did experience escalated tensions with India this year). Colombia saw 457 launched explosives and controlled detonation devices in 2024, according to the Red Cross . It should be noted that these comparisons are not always apt. The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention warn that comparing figures between nations is tricky. 'Does Sweden stand out when it comes to explosions, compared to other countries?' a section on their website reads (in Swedish). 'It is not so easy to answer because it is difficult to find reliable comparative statistics,' it answers. 'Different countries register differently. What is legally considered an explosion in Sweden may be registered as something else in another country.' The casualties that are caused by the explosions can help to give us an idea of the scale of such incidents. The casualty count , including deaths and injuries, from bombings in Pakistan in 2024 was 1,476. In Colombia, it was 719. Despite the number of explosions in Sweden, no deaths were recorded to have been caused by criminal explosives in 2024, police report. 'The explosion is used primarily as a marker and a threat,' an analysis by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention reads. 'The purpose is rarely to kill someone.' Malmö and Baghdad In the video, McCarthy says: 'Malmö in Sweden is ranked as dangerous as Baghdad.' Onscreen, a headline echoing this claim appears. This claim might sound familiar to recent claims about Ireland, repeated by Conor McGregor and Fox News , about how Dublin is ranked as the most dangerous city in Europe. And, indeed, this claim about Sweden has an almost identical unreliable source. The headline that appeared onscreen was taken from the English newspaper The Express, which made that claim in January , linking back to a website called Numbeo – the same Serbian company that was behind the claim about Dublin being dangerous. Numbeo describes itself as 'a crowd-sourced global database of quality of life data' and notes that data on crime is 'derived from surveys conducted by visitors to our website,' rather than from facts. The site also includes a disclaimer that none of its data has 'necessarily been reviewed by people with the expertise' to provide 'accurate or reliable information'. 'There is absolutely no assurance that any statement contained on the website is correct or precise,' it says. While it did rank Malmö and Baghdad next to each other (the 97th and 96th most dangerous cities, respectively), it ranked other well-known cities as much worse, such as Manchester (89), Paris (80), Washington, DC (72), and Houston, Texas (51). In other words, these rankings are worthless for giving an indication of crime in cities. There has been a real surge in gang violence that has affected Sweden's rankings in more rigorous studies of its safety. Nevertheless, Sweden's levels of danger are dwarfed by Iraq's, which is still the target of attacks by insurgent groups, such as Islamic State. Want to be your own fact-checker? Visit our brand-new FactCheck Knowledge Bank for guides and toolkits The Journal's FactCheck is a signatory to the International Fact-Checking Network's Code of Principles. You can read it here . For information on how FactCheck works, what the verdicts mean, and how you can take part, check out our Reader's Guide here . You can read about the team of editors and reporters who work on the factchecks here . Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... It is vital that we surface facts from noise. Articles like this one brings you clarity, transparency and balance so you can make well-informed decisions. We set up FactCheck in 2016 to proactively expose false or misleading information, but to continue to deliver on this mission we need your support. Over 5,000 readers like you support us. If you can, please consider setting up a monthly payment or making a once-off donation to keep news free to everyone. Learn More Support The Journal
Irish Independent
2 hours ago
- Irish Independent
Trump and Putin trade handshakes and smiles as meeting aimed at Ukraine peace deal begins
Donald Trump greets Vladimir Putin with a handshake on a red carpet as both disembark their presidential planes and their summit gets underway. The leaders greeted each other on the tarmac at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, where officials erected a special stage with a large 'Alaska 2025' sign flanked by parked fighter jets and red carpets. Uniformed military members stood at attention nearby. B-2s and F-22s — military aircraft designed to oppose Russia during the Cold War — were flying over to mark the moment. Mr Trump and Mr Putin have shared closely watched handshakes before, but their latest one will be as scrutinised as any, as will their body language or hints about how each is feeling. The pair are expected to hold a joint press conference. one minute ago Trump and Putin begin meeting in Alaska US President Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin began their meeting on Friday in Alaska. The two leaders made no statements and took no questions as they sat side by side. 15 minutes ago US President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin as he arrives at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. The two leaders are meeting for peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. 50 minutes ago Donald Trump arrives in Alaska ahead of his summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The meeting is scheduled to take place in less than an hour. Today 02:29 PM One-on-one between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is altered last-minute What was promised as a one-on-one face to face meeting between Trump and Putin has now become a three v three meeting with Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff now joining Trump for the talks. It is unclear who will accompany Putin in the much-anticipated talks aimed at securing a path to peace in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Today 01:59 PM Russian government plane lands in Alaska ahead of Putin-Trump talks A Russian government plane landed in Alaska ahead of the talks between the Russian and U.S. presidents on Friday, according to flight tracking system Flightradar24. It was not clear whether Vladimir Putin was on board. The plane departed from Russia's Far Eastern town Magadan, where the Russian president was earlier on Friday. U.S. President Donald Trump waves while boarding Air Force One, as he departs for Alaska to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, from Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, U.S., August 15, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Today 01:33 PM Trump heads to Alaska summit with Putin, says he wants Ukraine ceasefire 'today Donald Trump said he wanted to see a ceasefire "today" as he headed to Alaska on Friday for a summit with Russia's Vladimir Putin to help end the deadliest war in Europe since World War Two. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was not invited to the talks, and his European allies fear Trump might sell out Ukraine by essentially freezing the conflict and recognising - if only informally - Russian control over one fifth of Ukraine. Trump sought to assuage such concerns as he boarded Air Force One, saying he would let Ukraine decide on any possible territorial swaps. "I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine, I'm here to get them at a table," he said. Asked what would make the meeting a success, he told reporters: "I want to see a ceasefire rapidly... I'm not going to be happy if it's not today... I want the killing to stop." The U.S. and Russian presidents are due to meet at a Cold War-era air force base in Alaska's largest city at around 11 a.m. (1900 GMT) for their first face-to-face talks since Trump returned to the White House. Trump hopes a truce in the 3-1/2-year-old war will bolster his credentials as a global peacemaker worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize. For Putin, the summit is already a big win that he can portray as evidence that years of Western attempts to isolate Russia have unravelled and that Moscow is retaking its rightful place at the top table of international diplomacy. Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev described the pre-summit mood as "combative" and said the two leaders would discuss not only Ukraine but the full spectrum of bilateral relations, Russia's RIA news agency reported. Trump, who once said he would end Russia's war in Ukraine within 24 hours, conceded on Thursday it had proven a tougher task than he had expected. He said that if Friday's talks went well, quickly arranging a second, three-way summit with Zelenskiy would be even more important than his encounter with Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a three-way summit would be possible if the Alaska talks bore fruit, Interfax news agency reported. Peskov also said Friday's talks could last 6-7 hours and that aides would take part in what had been expected to be one-to-one meetings. Zelenskiy said the summit should open the way for a "just peace" and three-way talks that included him but added that Russia was continuing to wage war on Friday. A Russian ballistic missile earlier struck Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, killing one person and wounding another. "It's time to end the war, and the necessary steps must be taken by Russia. We are counting on America," Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app. 'Smart guy' The Kremlin said Putin would arrive in Alaska at 11 a.m. (1900 GMT) and would be met at his plane by Trump. "He is a smart guy, been doing it for a long time but so have I... We get along, there's a good respect level on both sides," Trump said of Putin. He also welcomed Putin's decision to bring a lot of businesspeople with him to Alaska. "But they're not doing business until we get the war settled," he said, repeating a threat of "economically severe" consequences for Russia if the summit goes badly. One source acquainted with Kremlin thinking said there were signs that Moscow could be ready to strike a compromise on Ukraine given that Putin understood Russia's economic vulnerability and costs of continuing the war. Reuters has previously reported that Putin might be willing to freeze the conflict along the front lines, provided there was a legally binding pledge not to enlarge NATO eastwards and to lift some Western sanctions. NATO has said that Ukraine's future is in the alliance. Russia, whose war economy is showing signs of strain, is vulnerable to further U.S. sanctions - and Trump has threatened tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, primarily China and India. "For Putin, economic problems are secondary to goals, but he understands our vulnerability and costs," the Russian source said. Putin this week held out the prospect of something else he knows Trump wants - a new nuclear arms control accord to replace the last surviving one, which is due to expire next February. Common ground? The source familiar with Kremlin thinking said it looked as if the two sides had been able to find some common ground. "Apparently, some terms will be agreed upon... because Trump cannot be refused, and we are not in a position to refuse (due to sanctions pressure)," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity. Putin has said he is open to a full ceasefire but that issues of verification must first be sorted out. One compromise could be a truce in the air war. Zelenskiy has ruled out formally handing Moscow any territory and is also seeking a security guarantee backed by the United States. It is unclear how that guarantee could work. Ukrainians who spoke to Reuters in central Kyiv on Friday were not optimistic about the summit. "Nothing good will happen there, because war is war, it will not end. The territories - we're not going to give anything to anyone," said Tetiana Harkavenko, a 65-year-old cleaner. Today 01:29 PM Zelenskiy says Russia continues attacking Ukraine ahead of summit President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday Russia was continuing to attack Ukraine ahead of a summitin Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, but its attempt to "show strength" with a new assault in the east had failed. "On the day of the negotiations, they also kill people. And that says a lot," Zelenskiy said on the Telegram messaging app. "The war continues. It continues precisely because there is no order, nor any indication that Moscow is preparing to end this war," he added. Earlier, Ukrainian regional officials said Russia had launched a ballistic missile into Dnipropetrovsk region in eastern Ukraine, killing one person and wounding at least one other, while a drone damaged civilian infrastructure and caused a fire in Sumy region in the northeast. The city of Dnipro is a logistics hub for Ukrainian forces, and the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions border the combat zone and are regularly shelled by Russian forces. Ukraine said this week that small groups of Russian infantry had thrust some 10 kilometres (six miles) towards the main defensive line near the eastern town of Dobropillia, raising fears of a wider breakthrough that would further threaten key cities. However, officials said on Thursday that Ukrainian troops had managed to stabilise the battlefield in the area. Commenting on the matter on Friday, Zelenskiy said: "The Russian intention was to show strength ahead of Alaska but in fact, for the occupiers, this is ending with their destruction." Reuters Today 01:28 PM Trump says 'nothing set in stone' on Putin meeting U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he did not know what would make his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin a success, saying he wanted to see a ceasefire. Asked what would make the meeting a success, he told reporters aboard Air Force One: "I can't tell you that. I don't know. There's nothing set in stone. I want certain things. I want a ceasefire." "I want to see a ceasefire rapidly... I'm not going to be happy if it's not today," he said, adding that Europe and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy would also be involved. "I want the killing to stop." Reuters Live Blog Software Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was not invited to the talks, and his European allies fear Trump might sell out Ukraine by essentially freezing the conflict and recognising - if only informally - Russian control over one fifth of Ukraine. Trump sought to assuage such concerns as he boarded Air Force One, saying he would let Ukraine decide on any possible territorial swaps. "I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine, I'm here to get them at a table," he said. Asked what would make the meeting a success, he told reporters: "I want to see a ceasefire rapidly... I'm not going to be happy if it's not today... I want the killing to stop." The U.S. and Russian presidents are due to meet at a Cold War-era air force base in Alaska's largest city at around 11 a.m. (1900 GMT) for their first face-to-face talks since Trump returned to the White House. Trump hopes a truce in the 3-1/2-year-old war will bolster his credentials as a global peacemaker worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize. For Putin, the summit is already a big win that he can portray as evidence that years of Western attempts to isolate Russia have unravelled and that Moscow is retaking its rightful place at the top table of international diplomacy. Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev described the pre-summit mood as "combative" and said the two leaders would discuss not only Ukraine but the full spectrum of bilateral relations, Russia's RIA news agency reported. Trump, who once said he would end Russia's war in Ukraine within 24 hours, conceded on Thursday it had proven a tougher task than he had expected. He said that if Friday's talks went well, quickly arranging a second, three-way summit with Zelenskiy would be even more important than his encounter with Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a three-way summit would be possible if the Alaska talks bore fruit, Interfax news agency reported. Peskov also said Friday's talks could last 6-7 hours and that aides would take part in what had been expected to be one-to-one meetings. Zelenskiy said the summit should open the way for a "just peace" and three-way talks that included him but added that Russia was continuing to wage war on Friday. A Russian ballistic missile earlier struck Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, killing one person and wounding another. ADVERTISEMENT "It's time to end the war, and the necessary steps must be taken by Russia. We are counting on America," Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app. The Kremlin said Putin would arrive in Alaska at 11 a.m. (1900 GMT) and would be met at his plane by Trump. "He is a smart guy, been doing it for a long time but so have I... We get along, there's a good respect level on both sides," Trump said of Putin. He also welcomed Putin's decision to bring a lot of businesspeople with him to Alaska. "But they're not doing business until we get the war settled," he said, repeating a threat of "economically severe" consequences for Russia if the summit goes badly. One source acquainted with Kremlin thinking said there were signs that Moscow could be ready to strike a compromise on Ukraine given that Putin understood Russia's economic vulnerability and costs of continuing the war. Reuters has previously reported that Putin might be willing to freeze the conflict along the front lines, provided there was a legally binding pledge not to enlarge NATO eastwards and to lift some Western sanctions. NATO has said that Ukraine's future is in the alliance. Russia, whose war economy is showing signs of strain, is vulnerable to further U.S. sanctions - and Trump has threatened tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, primarily China and India. "For Putin, economic problems are secondary to goals, but he understands our vulnerability and costs," the Russian source said. Putin this week held out the prospect of something else he knows Trump wants - a new nuclear arms control accord to replace the last surviving one, which is due to expire next February. The source familiar with Kremlin thinking said it looked as if the two sides had been able to find some common ground. "Apparently, some terms will be agreed upon... because Trump cannot be refused, and we are not in a position to refuse (due to sanctions pressure)," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity. Putin has said he is open to a full ceasefire but that issues of verification must first be sorted out. One compromise could be a truce in the air war. Zelenskiy has ruled out formally handing Moscow any territory and is also seeking a security guarantee backed by the United States. It is unclear how that guarantee could work. Ukrainians who spoke to Reuters in central Kyiv on Friday were not optimistic about the summit. "Nothing good will happen there, because war is war, it will not end. The territories - we're not going to give anything to anyone," said Tetiana Harkavenko, a 65-year-old cleaner.
Irish Examiner
2 hours ago
- Irish Examiner
Children in court hearings to be given their own advocate
Children whose parents are going through divorce proceedings or custody hearings will have their own independent advocate to make sure their voice is heard in court, under a new Government pilot project. The Department of Justice will initially roll out the service in Waterford City District Court and Clonmel District Court, and apply it only to guardianship, custody, and access cases. 'The aim is to ensure children are supported with clear, accessible information about the legal process, and are given meaningful opportunities to express their views in a manner appropriate to their age, development, and individual needs,' the department said. The move comes on the back of reports, including the Family Justice Strategy, which was published in November 2022. It found the current system for hearing the voice of a child in private family law proceedings is 'inconsistent' with a wide variance in how often judges ask to hear what the child's view on the situation is. Some ask for a report in every case while others only do so in a minority of cases. This has eventually resulted in this pilot programme, which has two main objectives, according to the department. It said: '[To] provide tailored, child-friendly information to help children to understand what is happening and what to expect, and create a structured and supported mechanism through which the child's views may be conveyed to the court.' The advocate can come from a variety of backgrounds, with social care workers, teachers and child psychologists among those eligible. 'It is expected that an independent evaluation will run alongside the pilot and the outcomes of the pilot will inform national policy decisions on the future of how we hear the voice of the child in private family law proceedings,' the department added. According to tender documents, the estimated cost of the project, which is set to last three years, is €3.8m.
