Iran's Strategic Loss Could Become Russia's Energy Gain
Israel's recent military campaign may have succeeded in striking a body blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions. But the twelve-day war waged by Jerusalem (and assisted by Washington) could end up paying real dividends for another member of the so-called 'axis of authoritarians.'After years of delays, Beijing appears once again to be interested in building a pipeline to transport additional Russian natural gas to China. The revival of the 'Power of Siberia 2'– a proposed 1,600-mile gas route from Russia's Yamal Peninsula into the PRC – is now expected to feature prominently on the agenda during Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming state visit to China this Fall.China's renewed interest comes amid fresh concerns about the reliability of energy supplies from the Middle East. There's good reason for officials in Beijing to worry. Natural gas from the region accounts for some 30% of China's imports of liquified natural gas, with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates serving as its principal suppliers. At the same time, China is deeply dependent on Iranian oil; Beijing buys roughly 90% of the crude exported by the Islamic Republic, purchasing it at a rate of nearly 1.4 million barrels daily during the first half of this year. All of which has left the PRC uniquely vulnerable to a cutoff of supplies from the region – and leery that such a disruption could actually occur.That remains a real possibility. During the recent conflict, as part of its potential retaliation to Israeli air strikes and American bombardment, the Islamic Republic is said to have contemplated closing the Strait of Hormuz. And while Iran stopped short of interfering with energy transit through the waterway, via which one-fifth of world oil passes, China's leaders appear to have become convinced that it would be prudent to explore potential alternatives."The volatility and unpredictability of the military situation have shown the Chinese leadership that stable land-based pipeline supply has geopolitical benefits," Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center tells the Wall Street Journal. 'Russia could benefit from that.'Indeed it could. If revived, the "Power of Siberia 2" would be nothing short of a boon for Moscow, which has grappled with the loss of Europe as an energy market ever since the start of its war on Ukraine some three-and-a-half years ago. An additional pipeline could serve as a significant input to Russia's ailing economy, even as it expands China's current dependence on Russian energy still further. (The original 'Power of Siberia' pipeline, stretching more than 1,800 miles from eastern Siberia to northeast China via Russia's Amur region, was inaugurated back in 2019 and now provides nearly a tenth of the PRC's natural gas. China also buys about one-fifth of its oil from Russia.)Strategically, meanwhile, it would help strengthen Moscow's ties to Beijing – and do so at precisely the time that the United States needs to disrupt the 'no limits' partnership that has developed between the two countries.Still, significant impediments remain. Moscow and Beijing have disagreed in the past about ownership of the project, as well as pricing for the gas it would transport. And experts estimate that construction on the 'Power of Siberia 2,' if it does materialize, would take five years or even longer.That means the energy route can't be a quick fix for Russia's current, dire economic condition. But if it ends up becoming a reality, the 'Power of Siberia 2' would serve as another link binding the authoritarians in Moscow and Beijing together – and yet another complication that the West will need to contend with.
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