Can Trump Raise the American Birthrate?

Wall Street Journal

09-05-2025

Editor's note: In this Future View, students discuss the potential for a baby boom. Next we'll ask: 'Are deportation policies for international college students fair, or should there be more protections in place?' Students should click here to submit opinions of fewer than 250 words by May 5. The best responses will be published Tuesday night.
We Need an Economic Boom First
If the White House wants a baby boom, its time is best spent trying to orchestrate an economic one. Consider Hungary, whose pronatalist policies are praised by Trump officials. Hungary spends 5% of gross domestic product on pro-birth policies, dwarfing the roughly 3.6% the U.S. spends on defense. Hungary's myriad birthrate inducements include income-tax reductions, subsidized mortgages, child-care allowances and interest-free loans of approximately $36,000, which are canceled if a couple has at least three children.
These efforts make President Trump's proposed $5,000 'baby bonus'—the most ambitious pro-birth policy floated by the White House thus far—look paltry in comparison. Even if Mr. Trump proposed such an expensive policy apparatus, it wouldn't be the most efficient use of his political capital. Hungary's approach worked for a time, with the country's fertility rate rising through the 2010s to peak at 1.61 births per woman in 2021. It has declined notably in recent years, however, as birth incentives fail to outweigh rising costs and economic uncertainty.
While Hungary's policies may help cushion the birthrate blow caused by a global economic contraction, Mr. Trump can do more if he governs judiciously to steer the U.S., and by extension the world, away from a global recession. It won't be only the U.S. birthrate that benefits from his actions.
—Rachel Gambee, University of Oxford, Christian ethics
We're All Depressed
Why should people who don't feel optimistic about the future choose to procreate? Parenthood offers a purpose larger than oneself—a legacy, something to be proud of. It's a taxing responsibility, however, one that requires stability and hope. When people are anxious, uncertain and depressed, they tend to avoid such responsibilities.
A 2016 study found that people satisfied with life are more likely to produce more life. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 42% of high-school students report feeling sad or hopeless most of the time. Another study finds that 58% of young adults feel alone most of the time. This crisis is compounded by economic challenges. A 2021 LinkedIn study found that nearly 40% of entry-level job postings require three years of experience, leaving young Americans shut out, even amid labor shortages.
Better mental health, increased economic opportunity and national optimism are the ingredients for a baby boom. The White House must tackle these issues by prioritizing mental-health reform, ensuring fair economic opportunities, and restoring hope in America's future. Only then will we see a future where young Americans feel confident enough to build families and invest in tomorrow.
—Mohammad Namous, Moravian University, political science
Inspire the Young
The Trump administration should champion emerging fertility technology to spur population growth. In vitro fertilization and advanced fertility treatments have transformed the American family's ability to have children. Millions face infertility, and while Mr. Trump supports IVF, his February executive order to expand fertility treatments doesn't do enough.
The Trump administration should launch a campaign focused on the consequences of declining birthrates and what new technology can do to mitigate it. It should spotlight Americans who have reshaped society: Who will be the next Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Sally Ride or Sonia Sotomayor? These people, products of a robust generation with robust birthrates, have driven the nation forward. This is an opportunity for the administration to inspire the next generation of Americans.
—Devin Mehta, University of Wisconsin-Madison, finance
Turn to the Church, Not the White House
A birthrate in decline is the mark of a nation in decline. America—like much of the developed world—is no longer maintaining its population through births. While it's encouraging that the Trump administration is concerned, the real problem is one of spiritual well-being. Only a return to religion will usher in a baby boom.
America's declining birthrate is often attributed to unaffordable housing and child care, economic immobility and a host of others issues that justify expanded government interference. But this fails to address the root of a global issue. While the world's wealthiest—and least religious—nations are seeing a baby bust, the poorest—and most religious—are witnessing a baby boom. Declining birthrates aren't the result of an economic problem. They are a consequence of a religious problem.
The administration still ought to pursue a pro-family agenda. Providing incentives narrowly targeted at young families in need can be helpful. Public policy, however, can go only so far. An encouraging number of young Americans are converting to Catholicism—embracing orthodoxy and tradition. This trend must continue. The administration should be applauded for trying to encourage a baby boom. But the answer will be found in the church, not the White House.
—Connor Lee, Gonzaga University, political science
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