Analysis: Delaying details of big projects stinks of distraction ahead of the budget
Today's document setting out the list of infrastructure projects the current coalition hopes to deliver over the next decade comes in at just under 50 pages and is rather scant on detail.
The NDP is the government's long-term plan for what large-scale infrastructure projects will be needed in Ireland over the next five to ten years.
Numbers in the billions were bandied about by the Taoiseach, Tánaiste and Minister of State Sean Canney
as they announced the plan at Government Buildings
, but details on the top projects, the timescale and how they will delivered, were thin on the ground.
There was no mention of road projects, new hospitals, or specific schools that were going to be built. They only real specific mention was that the MetroLink was getting fully funded, but the government still doesn't know how much it will cost.
Instead of providing a list of projects, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said each line minister had a body of work to do over the next couple of weeks.
Announcements to be made closer to October's budget
Those various ministers will come back and outline their priorities and what they can do with the money allocated to them 'closer to the budget', which has been confirmed for October.
Interesting timing.
The Journal
asked if pushing out the departmental announcements is an attempt to distract the public with shiny capital spending announcements ahead of what is expected to be
a lacklustre budget, particularly for workers.
The Taoiseach's response?
He said the previous NDP in previous years was 'too big a document, if I'm frank'.
He outlined how each minister will now have to prioritise the projects they want to get over the line.
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'They have work to do within the department in terms of prioritising the allocation of that funding and prioritisation is going to be key.'
He denied there was any attempt to distract the public.
'I mean, this is concrete substance in terms of investment in projects, be it roads, in active travel, be it in third level education, be it in research projects, the people receiving that funding won't see it as a distraction. They'll see it as very real.'
Martin said today's slimmed down document with little detail was the 'right approach', in his view.
'Doing things differently'
Similarly, the Tánaiste said in the past, there has been a 'big rush' to publish the NDP, which included a 'long list of projects'.
'We've tried to do things differently here. We've tried to provide ministers and their senior officials with certainty as to the envelope of money that they have for the next five years. And now we're telling them to go back and look through and tell us what can be delivered and the pace in which it can be delivered.
'We have to be agile in relation to this. You know, when it comes to capital projects, you might have two projects. One gets planning quicker than the other. We have to provide people, I think, with the flexibility here on what can be delivered quickly and ensure that value for money,' said Harris.
Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers also defended the document today, stating that he never intended to publish a long list of detailed projects.
While the Taoiseach denied that departmental announcements in the run up to the budget were a form of distraction to keep the focus off budget measures, such a tactic would not be a surprise move.
Why? There was a stark warning from government ministers today that October's budget projections could be built on sand.
After the NDP was launched today, the government also published its Summer Economic Statement (SES), which outlines the parameters for the upcoming Budget.
While in previous years there has been talk of 'bumper budgets' and once-off measures, there was no such talk today.
Instead, the budget spending pot was revealed under a cloud of uncertainty.
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Houses, water, health and Metrolink: The key points from the National Development Plan
Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, speaking to the media at a press conference.
Alamy Stock Photo
Alamy Stock Photo
While this could in fact be a very large budget, in terms of increased spending on last year, the Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe cautioned that a 'deterioration in the tariff landscape' would result in a 'recalibration' of its €9.4 billion Budget 2026 package announced today.
The paper also stated there will be a €1.5 billion taxation package, essentially tax cut measures.
However, this could be gobbled up if the hospitality VAT rate is reduced from 13.5% to 9% at a cost of €1 billion. The finance minister confirmed that there will be 'trade-offs' where other tax cuts might not get the green light due to the hospitality VAT cut.
Fantasy economics
Donohoe also confirmed that the SES published today is based on the workings that there will be 0% tariffs between the EU and the US.
Yes, you read that right. Zero per cent.
This is despite Tánaiste Simon Harris and other senior ministers stating that a 10% tariff is 'baked in' to government projections… just not for the budget package projection published today it would seem.
Essentially, the SES published today is not worth the paper it is written on as no-one in government is working to the optimistic view that Trump will roll over on tariffs.
If anything, the predictions are the landing zone could be above the 10%.
Hocus pocus projections and fantasy figures are how the SES projections published today could be described.
Even amid the economic uncertainty that comes with the ongoing standoff over tariffs, capital spending will be protected, the Taoiseach said, stating that 'current spending would be under pressure'.
'Our budget day decisions could change,' if the global uncertainty does come to pass, Donohoe said today.
Chambers said the government will 'absolutely have to revisit' the €9.3bn budget allocation 'if there is a deterioration'.
All this points to a strategy of delaying 'good news' infrastructure announcements until the autumn – by which point, presumably, we'll have a better idea of how grim the economic situation is looking.
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The Irish Sun
an hour ago
- The Irish Sun
I will ‘definitely not' run for presidency, says Taoiseach Micheal Martin as he discusses National Development Plan
TAOISEACH Michael Martin has said he will "definitely not" run for Irish presidency this year. Speaking to Morning Ireland Advertisement 2 Minister Peter Burke has been calling to cut VAT rate for the hospitality sector Credit: � 2025 PA Media, All Rights Reserved Mr Martin said he was elected to "lead And an Asked if he would consider putting his name forward, Advertisement Read more in News "I have that obligation to the public. No disrespect to the presidency, but I gave commitments to the people that I will serve for the next five years and that's what I'm going to." There are a lot of names floating in association with Fianna Fiall in He added: "Party will consider that over the next number of weeks." Mr Martin also discussed the revised version of NDP which was announced yesterday with a total investment of €275.4 billion. Advertisement Most read in Irish News Latest It adds more than €40 billion for housing and water services, €22.3 billion for It also cited €2 billion to be delivered to Tetchy scenes in Dail as Micheal Martin accused of calling Mary Lou McDonald liar in Irish Mr Martin has explained that the money allocated to the NDP investments in the public sector comes from the government's projections of surpluses over the next number of years. He continued: "There is the additionality of €14 billion from the receipts from Advertisement "Now allocations have come from, it would be specifically dedicated to the metro which is clearly a climate infrastructural piece, because obviously the more people we can get on public transport the better in terms of climate. "I can't see KEY PRIORITIES The Government also promised to cut the VAT rate for the hospitality sector in the Mr Martin added: "Nothing yet is finalised in terms of the budget. Advertisement "We will be prioritising disability and we will be prioritising child poverty. "We will be targeting our measures and social protection to those most." Minister for Enterprise, Tourism and Employment Peter Burke has been calling to cut VAT rate for the hospitality sector. The Minister said the cut is a "jobs measure to sustain employment" in the sector. Advertisement Speaking on RTE's "At this point in time, over 200,000 people are employed in it. It's a €9 billion sector. And it's so important to try and keep that sector sustainable. 'VIABILITY MEASURE' "This is a jobs measure to sustain the employment in that sector, which is critically important to me as Minister for "It is a viability measure, they are under significant pressure." Advertisement Mr Burke added: "We've had a lot of additionality from government, part of it over the last three years, in terms of regulatory requirements in the trajectory to a living wage and sick pay in so many areas that have put significant pressure on the sector and have reduced their margins. "We've pushed 90,000 jobs into the economy over the last 12 months. "And considering when we're at or about full employment, to put 90,000 extra households with additional income into them with more jobs is very significant." 2 Michael Martin has said he will 'definitely not' run for Irish presidency this year Credit: Collins Photos Advertisement

The Journal
2 hours ago
- The Journal
Minister defends VAT cut for hospitality as government accused of breaking promises to workers
ENTERPRISE MINISTER PETER Burke has defended plans to cut VAT for the hospitality sector at a cost of €1 billion. Speaking yesterday at Government Buildings, when outlining the government's Summer Economic Statement, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe outlined that there will be a €9.4 billion Budget 2026 package , of which €1.5 billion is set aside for tax cuts. Donohoe, and other senior members of government, including the Tánaiste and Taoiseach said last month that all government parties have committed to delivering changes to VAT for the hospitality sector. VAT for the tourism and hospitality sectors was reduced to 9% during the Covid-19 pandemic at a cost of €1.2bn to the exchequer. The previous 13.5% rate was reinstated last August, despite the sector's opposition. When asked how much it is estimated to cost for the measure to be re-introduced, Donohoe said yesterday it will cost €1bn for a VAT reduction from 13.5% to 9% for restaurants and cafes, meaning there would not be much left for further tax reductions for others. He told reporters that he has always been clear that if the government greenlights this measure there will need to be 'trade-offs' in terms of other measures that the won't be delivered. Protecting 200,000 workers Speaking on RTÉ Radio One this morning, the enterprise minister defended the VAT reduction, stating that the tourism sector is a very important part of the economy. 'At this point in time, over 200,000 people are employed in it. It's a €9 billion sector. And it's so important to try and keep that sector sustainable,' said Burke. Advertisement Over the last number of years a very significant number of independent small food outlets and coffee shops have come under pressure, he explained, stating that many restaurants are closing their doors. The minister said that the VAT reduction is a 'jobs measure' that will sustain the employment in that sector. 'It is a viability measure, they are under significant pressure. We've had a lot of additionality from government, part of it over the last three years, in terms of regulatory requirements in the trajectory to a living wage and sick pay in so many areas that have put significant pressure on the sector and have reduced their margins. 'I've been in coffee shops and indeed restaurants where I've seen their margins diminish and some making a very significant loss that they weren't the prior year, considering in many cases their trade and turnover has sustained,' said Burke. Restaurants and cafes are struggling with higher business costs and in some cases reduced demand exacerbated by the increased cost of living, with many in the industry perceiving the reinstated higher VAT rate as a significant pressure on their businesses . Department of Finance says VAT cut is 'unjustified' However, despite the government being determined to bring in the measure, Department of Finance advisory papers published earlier this month in advance of the next Budget, officials said that there are a 'number of reasons' why going back to 9% 'remains unjustified'. It listed the cost to the state, the resilience of the domestic economy, and Ireland's current position as being 'not significantly out of line with other EU countries in relation to the application of VAT in this sector' as among the reasons. 'The cost is very significant,' it said. The news that workers might not feel many benefits in the budget this October has resulted in SIPTU Deputy General Secretary, Greg Ennis stating that private sector workers have been short-changed by government. In a statement this afternoon, he accused the government of 'broken commitments' on pensions, increased sick days and measures to offset the cost of living crisis while announcing tax breaks for business in its summer economic statement. Related Reads Analysis: Delaying details of big projects stinks of distraction ahead of the budget Tax measures and €9.4bn budget package not set in stone until we know US tariff outcome Cutting VAT on hospitality 'unjustified' and too expensive, says Department of Finance He said SIPTU representatives have written to the the enterprise minister seeking an urgent meeting. Ennis said failure to introduce meaningful measures to offset the cost of living crisis is being done at the same time as government promises to provide a VAT reduction to the hospitality sector which will cost the State an estimated €1 billion. 'This morning on national radio, the Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, stated that there was a prior commitment to the hospitality sector on a VAT reduction. However, what about the government's prior commitments to workers with regard to increasing statutory occupational sick pay from five to seven days in 2025, progression towards a living wage in 2026, which has now been shelved until at least 2029, and the abolition of subminimum wages for young workers,' he said. 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A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation. Learn More Support The Journal


Irish Times
4 hours ago
- Irish Times
Will the Government's big projects survive the next downturn?
The Government's updated National Development Plan (NDP) proposes to spend a vast sum of money on capital infrastructure. But beyond three 'mega projects' there is little detail and the vagueness of the document has led to some skepticism. In part one of today's Inside Politics podcast, Pat Leahy joins Hugh Linehan to discuss the NDP and whether the Government's promise to prioritise infrastructure could survive a major economic shock - the kind created by heavy US tariffs, for example, They then look at the Summer Economic Statement, also revealed this week, which shows there will not be much wriggle room in this year's Budget. In part two, back to the NDP and what it says about the Government's plan for the development of transportation infrastructure. Dublin's proposed MetroLink is one of the three mega projects identified, but there is €20 billion earmarked for other unidentified projects. Where should it go? How much will be spent on new roads, and what are the implications for carbon emissions? And what about public transport projects outside Dublin? Professor Brian Caulfield talks to Hugh and Pat. READ MORE Brian Caulfield is a Professor in Transportation in the Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering at Trinity College Dublin.