
US jobless claims fall to 3-month low
Applications increased by 7,000 to 241,000 in total during the week ended July 12, the Labor Department data showed.
This came against forecasts for a rise to 233,000, as the previous week's data was revised upward by 1,000.
The four-week average, a more stable measure, declined by 6,250 to 229,500, versus last week's revised average of 235,750.
This data underscored the labor market's resilience, even as trade tensions persist and new tariffs on several imports are set to take effect on Aug. 1.
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Al Arabiya
an hour ago
- Al Arabiya
US, China to resume talks on tariff truce extension ahead of Trump-Xi meeting
Top US and Chinese economic officials will resume talks in Stockholm on Monday to try to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the center of a trade war between the world's top two economies, aiming to extend a truce by three months and keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay. China is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with President Donald Trump's administration, after Beijing and Washington reached preliminary deals in May and June to end weeks of escalating tit-for-tat tariffs and a cut-off of rare earth minerals. Without an agreement, global supply chains could face renewed turmoil from US duties snapping back to triple-digit levels that would amount to a bilateral trade embargo. The Stockholm talks come hot on the heels of Trump's biggest trade deal yet with the European Union on Sunday for a 15 percent tariff on most EU goods exports to the US, including autos. The bloc will also buy $750 billion worth of American energy and make $600 billion worth of US investments in coming years. No similar breakthrough is expected in the US-China talks but trade analysts said that another 90-day extension of a tariff and export control truce struck in mid-May was likely. An extension of that length would prevent further escalation and facilitate planning for a potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October or early November. A US Treasury spokesperson declined comment on a South China Morning Post report quoting unnamed sources as saying the two sides would refrain from introducing new tariffs or other steps that could escalate the trade war for another 90 days. Trump's administration is poised to impose new sectoral tariffs that will impact China within weeks, including on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, ship-to-shore cranes and other products. 'We're very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we'll see how that goes,' Trump told reporters on Sunday before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen struck their tariff deal. The Financial Times reported on Monday that the US had paused curbs on tech exports to China to avoid disrupting trade talks with Beijing and support Trump's efforts to secure a meeting with Xi this year. The industry and security bureau of the Commerce Department, which oversees export controls, had been told to avoid tough moves on China, the newspaper said, citing current and former officials. Reuters could not immediately verify the report. The White House and the department did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment outside business hours. Deeper issues Previous US-China trade talks in Geneva and London in May and June focused on bringing US and Chinese retaliatory tariffs down from triple-digit levels and restoring the flow of rare earth minerals halted by China and Nvidia's H20 AI chips and other goods halted by the United States. So far, the talks have not delved into broader economic issues. They include US complaints that China's state-led, export-driven model is flooding world markets with cheap goods, and Beijing's complaints that US national security export controls on tech goods seek to stunt Chinese growth. 'Geneva and London were really just about trying to get the relationship back on track so that they could, at some point, actually negotiate about the issues which animate the disagreement between the countries in the first place,' said Scott Kennedy, a China economics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 'I'd be surprised if there is an early harvest on some of these things but an extension of the ceasefire for another 90 days seems to be the most likely outcome,' Kennedy said. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already flagged a deadline extension and has said he wants China to rebalance its economy away from exports to more domestic consumption -- a decades-long goal for US policymakers. Analysts say the US-China negotiations are far more complex than those with other Asian countries and will require more time. China's grip on the global market for rare earth minerals and magnets, used in everything from military hardware to car windshield wiper motors, has proved to be an effective leverage point on US industries. Trump-Xi meeting? In the background of the talks is speculation about a possible meeting between Trump and Xi in late October. Trump has said he will decide soon on a landmark trip to China, and a new flare-up of tariffs and export controls would likely derail planning. Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy in Beijing, said that a Trump-Xi summit would be an opportunity for the US to lower the 20 percent tariffs on Chinese goods related to fentanyl. In exchange, he said the Chinese side could make good on its 2020 pledge to increase purchases of US farm products and other goods. 'The future prospect of the heads of state summit is very beneficial to the negotiations because everyone wants to reach an agreement or pave the way in advance,' Sun said. Still, China will likely request a reduction of multi-layered US tariffs totaling 55 percent on most goods and further easing of US high-tech export controls, analysts said. Beijing has argued that such purchases would help reduce the US trade deficit with China, which reached $295.5 billion in 2024.


Al Arabiya
2 hours ago
- Al Arabiya
Europe hopes for ‘no surprises' as US weighs troop withdrawals
After keeping Donald Trump happy with a pledge to up defense spending at NATO's summit, Europe is now bracing for a key decision from the US president on the future of American forces on the continent. Washington is currently conducting a review of its military deployments worldwide -- set to be unveiled in coming months -- and the expectation is it will lead to drawdowns in Europe. That prospect is fraying the nerves of US allies, especially as fears swirl that Russia could look to attack a NATO country within the next few years if the war in Ukraine dies down. However, the alliance is basking in Trump's newfound goodwill following its June summit in The Hague, and his officials are making encouraging noises that Europe will not be left in the lurch. 'We've agreed to no surprises and no gaps in the strategic framework of Europe,' said Matthew Whitaker, US ambassador to NATO, adding he expected the review to come out in 'late summer, early fall'. 'I have daily conversations with our allies about the process,' he said. While successive US governments have mulled scaling back in Europe to focus more on China, Trump has insisted more forcefully than his predecessors that the continent should handle its own defense. 'There's every reason to expect a withdrawal from Europe,' said Marta Mucznik from the International Crisis Group. 'The question is not whether it's going to happen, but how fast.' When Trump returned to office in January many felt he was about to blow a hole in the seven-decade-old alliance. But the vibe in NATO circles is now far more upbeat than those desperate days. 'There's a sanguine mood, a lot of guesswork, but the early signals are quite positive,' one senior European diplomat told AFP, talking as others on condition of anonymity. 'Certainly no panic or doom and gloom.' 'Inevitable' The Pentagon says there are nearly 85,000 US military personnel in Europe -- a number that has fluctuated between 75,000 and 105,000 since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 'I think it is inevitable that they pull out some of their forces,' a second European diplomat told AFP. 'But I don't expect this to be like a dramatic overhaul. I think it's going to be gradual. I think it's going to be based on consultations.' Trump's first target is likely to be the troops left over from a surge ordered by his predecessor Joe Biden after Moscow's tanks rolled into Ukraine. Officials say relocating the rump of that 20,000-strong deployment would not hurt NATO's deterrence too much -- but alarm bells would ring if Trump looked to cut too deep into personnel numbers or close key bases. The issue is not just troop numbers -- the US has capabilities such as air defenses, long-range missiles and satellite surveillance that allies would struggle to replace in the short-term. 'The kinds of defense investments by Europe that are being made coming out of The Hague summit may only be felt in real capability terms over many years,' said Ian Lesser from the German Marshall Fund think tank. 'So the question of timing really does matter.' 'Inopportune moment' Washington's desire to pull back from Europe may be tempered by Trump now taking a tougher line with Russia -- and Moscow's reluctance to bow to his demands to end the Ukraine war. 'It seems an inopportune moment to send signals of weakness and reductions in the American security presence in Europe,' Lesser said. He also pointed to Trump's struggles during his first term to pull troops out of Germany -- the potential bill for relocating them along with political resistance in Washington scuppering the plan. While European diplomats are feeling more confident than before about the troop review, they admit nothing can be certain with the mercurial US president. Other issues such as Washington's trade negotiations with the EU could rock transatlantic ties in the meantime and upend the good vibes. 'It seems positive for now,' said a third European diplomat. 'But what if we are all wrong and a force decrease will start in 2026. To be honest, there isn't much to go on at this stage.'


Arab News
7 hours ago
- Arab News
US and EU strike deal with 15 percent tariff to avert trade war
TURNBERRY, Scotland: The US struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday, imposing a 15 percent import tariff on most EU goods — half the threatened rate — and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the deal at Trump's luxury golf course in western Scotland after an hour-long meeting that pushed the hard-fought deal over the line. 'I think this is the biggest deal ever made,' Trump told reporters, lauding EU plans to invest some $600 billion in the United States and dramatically increase its purchases of US energy and military equipment. Trump said the deal, which tops a $550 billion deal signed with Japan last week, would expand ties between the trans-Atlantic powers after years of what he called unfair treatment of US exporters. Von der Leyen, describing Trump as a tough negotiator, said the 15 percent tariff applied 'across the board,' later telling reporters it was 'the best we could get.' 'We have a trade deal between the two largest economies in the world, and it's a big deal. It's a huge deal. It will bring stability. It will bring predictability,' she said. The deal, which Trump said calls for $750 billion of EU purchases of US energy in coming years and 'hundreds of billions of dollars' of arms purchases, likely spells good news for a host of EU companies, including Airbus, Mercedes-Benz and Novo Nordisk, if all the details hold. The baseline 15 percent tariff will still be seen by many in Europe as too high, compared with Europe's initial hopes to secure a zero-for-zero tariff deal, though it is better than the threatened 30 percent rate. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the deal, saying it averted a trade conflict that would have hit Germany's export-driven economy and its large auto sector hard. German carmakers, VW, Mercedes and BMW were some of the hardest hit by the 27.5 percent US tariff on car and parts imports now in place. But Bernd Lange, the German Social Democrat who heads the European Parliament's trade committee, said the tariffs were imbalanced and the hefty EU investment earmarked for the US would likely come at the bloc's own expense. Trump retains the ability to increase the tariffs in the future if European countries do not live up to their investment commitments, a senior US administration official told reporters on Sunday evening. The euro rose around 0.2 percent against the dollar, sterling and yen within an hour of the deal's being announced. Mirror of Japan deal The deal mirrors key parts of the framework accord reached by the US with Japan, but like that deal, it leaves many questions open, including tariff rates on spirits, a highly charged topic for many on both sides of the Atlantic. Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at Teneo, said it was 'merely a high-level, political agreement' that could not replace a carefully hammered out trade deal: 'This, in turn, creates the risk of different interpretations along the way, as seen immediately after the conclusion of the US-Japan deal.' 'We are agreeing that the tariff ... for automobiles and everything else will be a straight-across tariff of 15 percent,' Trump said, but he quickly added that a 50 percent US tariff on steel and aluminum will remain in place. Von der Leyen said that tariff would be cut and replaced with a quota system. Von der Leyen said the rate also applied to semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, and there would be no tariffs from either side on aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals, certain generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials. Trump initially appeared to suggest pharmaceuticals would not be covered, but a senior administration official later confirmed to reporters that the tariff deal applied to pharmaceuticals. Officials also said EU leaders had accepted that the US would keep its 50 percent steel and aluminum tariff in place while the two sides continue to discuss it. 'We will keep working to add more products to this list,' von der Leyen said, adding that spirits were still under discussion. The deal will be sold as a triumph for Trump, who is seeking to reorder the global economy and reduce decades-old US trade deficits, and has already reached similar framework accords with Britain, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam, although his administration has not hit its goal of '90 deals in 90 days.' He has periodically railed against the EU, saying it was 'formed to screw the United States' on trade. Arriving in Scotland, Trump said the EU wanted 'to make a deal very badly' and said, as he met von der Leyen, that Europe had been 'very unfair to the United States.' Trump has fumed for years about the US merchandise trade deficit with the EU, which in 2024 reached $235 billion, according to US Census Bureau data. The EU points to the US surplus in services, which it says partially redresses the balance. Now he argues, his tariffs are bringing in 'hundreds of billions of dollars' of revenues for the US, while dismissing warnings from economists about the risk of inflation. On July 12, Trump threatened to apply a 30 percent tariff on imports from the EU starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major US trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. The EU had prepared countertariffs on 93 billion euros ($109 billion) of US goods in the event there was no deal, and Trump made good his 30 percent tariff threat. Some member states had also pushed for the bloc to use its most powerful trade weapon, the anti-coercion instrument, to target US services in the event of a no-deal.