LA 2028 Olympics: U.S. Men's Basketball Team Not The Favorite?
Since 1936 Team USA has failed to win a gold medal only three times: 1972, 1988 and 2004. Will it happen again in 2028? Many former NBA players and analysts already think so.
Competitive young African man, basketball player representing team of USA in international match. ... More Concept of sport, championship, tournament. Creative design, poster for sport event. Grainy effect
1972 was a controversial last-second loss against the former Soviet Union. In 1988 the US lost to the Soviet Union again and would later beat Australia for the bronze medal. In 2004 the USA lost three times to Puerto Rico, Lithuania and Argentina (for the first time ever) yet managed to still claim a bronze medal.
(Original Caption) Russian basketball players celebrate wildly here after scoring a 51-50 win over ... More the United States very early on September 10th in the Olympic basketball final. The victory came when Russia's Aleksandr Belov sank a lay up shot with just one second to go. One of the two referees said he though that time had run out before the shot and would protest the outcome.
Traditionally composed of amateur players, the U.S. dominated the first decades of international basketball, winning a record seven consecutive Olympic gold medals. However, starting with the Soviet Union in the 1970's, other countries began to develop professional teams and leagues. By the end of the 1980s, American amateurs faced increasing difficulty against seasoned professionals. After the 1988 Games, FIBA (The International Basketball Federation) for the first time allowed the U.S. to field teams with NBA players.
Basketball: 1992 Summer Olympics: USA (left to right) Christian Laettner, David Robinson, Patrick ... More Ewing, Larry Bird, Scottie Pippen, Michael Jordan, Clyde Drexler, Karl Malone, John Stockton, Chris Mullin, and Charles Barkley victorious on podium after winning Men's Gold Medal Game vs Croatia at Pavello Olimpic. Dream Team. Badalona, Spain 8/8/1992 CREDIT: Richard Mackson (Photo by Richard Mackson /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X43178 TK47 R1 F22 )
Opening against Angola, behind Charles Barkley's 24 points the U.S. squad stomped to a one-sided 116-48 victory. Facing a talented Croatian team a day later, the 'Dream Team' managed a 33-point win, 103-70. Michael Jordan led the U.S. team with 21 points. The U.S. team had an easy time with a solid Germany team, rolling to a 111-68 victory as Larry Bird, who had been bothered by a nagging back injury, returned to All-Star form to lead the USA offensive attack with 19 points. Next the team would crush Brazil, 127-83. And closing out pool play against host Spain, the U.S. scored a convincing 122-81 victory.
Advancing to the quarterfinals the USA would easily defeat Puerto Rico, 115-77. Meeting Lithuania in the semifinals, ( a team that featured four of the top six scorers from the Soviet Union's 1988 Olympic gold medal winning team), the American team jumped out to an 11-0 lead and quickly put this contest out of reach winning 127-76 win as nine U.S. players would score in double figures.
Facing Croatia in the gold medal contest, the U.S. easily won the rematch by 32 points, 117-85. Averaging an Olympic record 117.3 points a game, the USA squad won by an average of 43.8 points.
Basketball: 1992 Summer Olympics: Aerial view of USA Michael Jordan (9) in action vs Croatia during ... More Men's Final at Pavello Olimpic. Dream Team. Badalona, Spain 8/8/1992 CREDIT: John W. McDonough (Photo by John W. McDonough /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X43181 )
With the introduction of NBA players, the Dream Team was able to spark a second run of dominance in the 1990s.
By the new century Team USA would face renewed competition from a number of countries all over the globe. And in 2004 the U.S., playing with a depleted roster due to last second withdrawals, would lose three games on its way to a bronze medal, a record that represented more losses in a single year than the country's Olympic teams had suffered in all previous Olympiads combined.
ATHENS - AUGUST 28: Arvydas Macijauskas #6 of Lithuania shoots past the defense of Shawn Marion #11 ... More and Lamar Odom #14 of the United States during the men's basketball bronze medal contest game on August 28, 2004 during the Athens 2004 Summer Olympic Games at the Indoor Hall of the Olympic Sports Complex in Athens, Greece. (Photo by)
As a result the U.S. would for the first time start a long-term team building process thereafter to create more cohesion and unity amongst its pro players. As a result the 2008 US Team (nicknamed the 'Redeem Team') would go 5-0 in Olympic competition and defeat Spain in the gold medal match 118-107.
Basketball: 2008 Summer Olympics: USA team and head coach Mike Krzyzewski victorious with gold ... More medals after game vs Spain during Men's Final at Olympic Basketball Gymnasium in Wukesong Culture and Sports Center. Beijing, China 8/24/2008 CREDIT: Bob Rosato (Photo by Bob Rosato /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X80866 TK1 R2 F184 )
Since 2008 the U.S. Men's basketball team has continued to win gold medals every four years. The U.S. beat Spain 107-100 to win gold in London in 2012. They would beat Serbia to win gold in Rio De Janeiro in 2016 winning by 30, 96-66 (The largest margin of victory since the 1992 Games). In 2020 the U.S. men would beat France to take gold but by a much closer margin 87-82. And in 2024 in Paris the U.S. would keep the streak alive beating France this time by a score of 98-87.
PARIS, FRANCE - AUGUST 10: LeBron James #6 of Team United States celebrates with teammates after ... More their victory against Team France during the Men's Gold Medal game between Team France and Team United States on day fifteen of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at Bercy Arena on August 10, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by)
So the U.S. has continued its winning ways, but a pattern is emerging: (1) More than a handful of countries are now fielding great basketball teams. (2) The U.S. is winning, but in less dominating form. The rest of the world is clearly closing the gap.
'The proof is in the pudding' as the old saying goes. Did you know that since 2018 only foreign-born players have won the NBA league MVP? In the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons it was Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece).
BERLIN, GERMANY - SEPTEMBER 13: Giannis Antetokounmpo of Greece during the FIBA EuroBasket 2022 ... More quarterfinal match between Germany and Greece at EuroBasket Arena Berlin on September 13, 2022 in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Pedja Milosavljevic/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)
Then in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons it was the Joker, Nikola Jokić (Serbia).
LILLE, FRANCE - AUGUST 03: Nikola Jokic #15 of Team Serbia yells during a Men's basketball group ... More phase-group C game between Serbia and South Sudan on day eight of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at Stade Pierre Mauroy on August 03, 2024 in Lille, France. (Photo by)
In 2022-23 it was Joel Embiid (Cameroon). The Joker would win MVP yet again in the 2023-24 season. And this season it was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada). For seven seasons an American-born player has not won.
MANILA, PHILIPPINES - SEPTEMBER 10: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Canada during the FIBA Basketball ... More World Cup 3rd Place game between USA and Canada at Mall of Asia Arena on September 10, 2023 in Manila, Philippines. (Photo by)
The Pro Game Has Shifted From Athleticism to Efficiency
Scottie Pippen, All-Pro member of the six-time NBA champion Chicago Bulls recently put it this way: 'A lot of Americans have lost jobs because we haven't mastered the advantage of shooting the ball like our European counterparts.'
Portrait of Scottie Pippen #33, Small Forward of the Chicago Bulls looking on during the NBA Pacific ... More Division basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers on 2nd February 1988 at The Forum arena in Inglewood, Los Angeles, California, United States. The Lakers won the game 110 - 101. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Allsport/Getty Images)
That statement summarizes what has been a quiet revolution in the NBA—a shift from American athleticism to international efficiency. While the U.S. once produced the bulk of the league's dominant scorers, rim attackers, and ball handlers, the global game has crept in and taken over with one foundational weapon: the jump shot. International players are coming into the NBA with very polished skills at a young age. From shooting mechanics and footwork to decision-making and off-ball movement, their game is shaped by repetition and efficiency rather than flair. Jokic doesn't need to jump over you; he'll shoot over you. Luka doesn't beat you with speed; he beats you with angles. Wembanyama? He's 7'4" and shoots like a guard.
PARIS, FRANCE - AUGUST 10: Victor Wembanyama #32 of Team France reacts during the Men's Gold Medal ... More game between Team France and Team United States on day fifteen of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at Bercy Arena on August 10, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by)
And looking ahead, names like Luka Doncic (Slovenia) and Victor Wembanyana (France) will surely be in the mix for MVP candidates. An American-born player may not win the award in this decade.
COLOGNE, GERMANY - SEPTEMBER 07: Luka Doncic of Slovenia reacts during the FIBA EuroBasket 2022 ... More group B match between France and Slovenia at Lanxess Arena on September 07, 2022 in Cologne, Germany. (Photo by)
Other NBA greats are echoing Pippen. In an interview with FIBA in late 2024 Shaquille O'Neil was quoted: "Twenty years ago, the USA was light years ahead of other countries. But that has changed. Europe has caught up and is only slightly behind, but it will soon overtake the USA. I am sure that the USA will not win gold at the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles."
MIAMI, FL - MAY 22: Shaquille O'Neal hosts Industry Tuesdays at Bamboo Miami on May 22, 2013 in ... More Miami, Florida. (Photo by Aaron Davidson/WireImage)
O'Neal spoke from experience, having seen both the golden eras of Team USA as well as the rise of international competition. He pointed to the looming retirement of key players as a critical factor.
"LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry will no longer play. Joel Embiid probably won't be there either. When those names are gone, the supremacy will be over. The European teams are really good: Croatia, Serbia, even Germany. They can win gold in 2028.'
We will see Shaq, we will see. Don't count out the U.S. just yet. Another generation of U.S.-born players will look to prove you wrong.
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