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Why the Philippines' poorest may choose survival over standing up to China

Why the Philippines' poorest may choose survival over standing up to China

Filipinos are among the largest group of migrants working as domestic staff abroad, whose lives are often far from easy. Ritchie B Tongo/EPA
PHILIPPINES: A survey by the pollster Social Weather Stations commissioned by the Stratbase Group shows 75% of Filipinos favour Senate candidates who assert the republic's maritime privileges in the West Philippine Sea. However, among those who live below the poverty level, categorised as Class E, 41% are in favour of candidates who are not planning to make this issue a priority. That's pointedly more than the national average of 25%.
According to the latest SCMP report, political analysts attribute this to the daily economic hardships that this group faces and how foreign policy is frequently relegated to the background in favour of survival. Political science professionals also emphasise that, in many campaigns, candidates focus more on jobs, food issues take centre stage, and local needs are highlighted more instead of issues of national sovereignty or maritime rights. Disinformation and political messaging targeting the poor
Dindo Manhit, president of Stratbase, cautioned that underprivileged communities are being 'disproportionately influenced' by propaganda and half-truths disseminated through Chinese-backed social media campaigns. 'Class E's daily fight for survival leaves them more susceptible to these manipulations,' Manhit said.
The matter is not new. In 2024, a bogus news flash regarding impending civil warfare in the Philippines was discovered to have come from Chinese social media sources. The National Security Council has since found 'indications' that the Chinese government is steering synchronised 'influence manoeuvres' targeted at influencing Filipino voters' decisions. China denies meddling, while political lines blur
The Chinese embassy in Manila denied any form of participation in the so-called manoeuvring activities, calling the allegations monstrous and condemning these accusations as tactics to make China an election issue. However, the consular declaration has not subdued the apprehensions, particularly as China-friendly personalities, together with cronies of former president Rodrigo Duterte, have stayed prominent in the political race.
At present, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s government is making an effort to detach itself from these blocs, stressing a harder stance on sovereignty. Nonetheless, for millions of Filipino voters, especially the poor, the issue regarding the West Philippine Sea remains a distant problem unless it directly affects their livelihood, such as fisherfolk who depend on fishing rights.

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BYD unleashes an EV industry reckoning that alarms Beijing
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BYD unleashes an EV industry reckoning that alarms Beijing
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For the short term at least, investors are betting few automakers will escape unscathed: BYD, arguably the biggest winner from industry consolidation, has lost US$21.5 billion (S$27.7 billion) in market value since its shares peaked in late May. 'What you're seeing in China is disturbing, because there's a lack of demand and extreme price cutting,' said John Murphy, a senior automotive analyst at Bank of America Corp. Eventually there will be 'massive consolidation' to soak up the excess capacity, Mr Murphy said. For automakers, relentless discounting erodes profit margins, undermines brand value and forces even well-capitalised companies into unsustainable financial positions. Low-priced and low-quality products can seriously damage the international reputation of 'Made-in-China' cars, the People's Daily, an outlet controlled by the Communist Party, said. And that knock would come just as models from BYD to Geely, Zeekr and Xpeng start to collect accolades on the world stage. 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'Tesla probably needs to be there to compete with those companies and understand what's going on, but there's a lot of risk there for them.' Others leave no room for doubt that BYD, China's No. 1 selling car brand, is the culprit. 'It's obvious to everyone that the biggest player is doing this,' Jochen Siebert, managing director at auto consultancy JSC Automotive, said. 'They want a monopoly where everybody else gives up.' BYD's aggressive tactics are raising concerns over the potential dumping of cars, dealership management issues and 'squeezing out suppliers,' he said. The pricing turmoil is also unfolding against a backdrop of significant overcapacity. The average production utilization rate in China's automotive industry was mere 49.5 per cent in 2024, data compiled by Shanghai-based Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute show. An April report by AlixPartners meanwhile highlights the intense competition that's starting to emerge among new energy vehicle makers, or companies that produce pure battery cars and plug-in hybrids. In 2024, the market saw its first ever consolidation among NEV-dedicated brands, with 16 exiting and 13 launching. Jiyue Auto shows how quickly things can change. A little over a year after launching its first car, the automaker jointly backed by big names Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and technology giant Baidu, began to scale down production and seek fresh funds. It's a dilemma for all carmakers, but especially smaller ones. 'If you don't follow suit once a leading company makes a price move, you might lose the chance to stay at the table,' AlixPartners consultant Zhang Yichao said. He added that China's low capacity utilization rate, which is 'fundamentally fueling' the competition, is now even under more pressure from export uncertainties. While the push to find an outlet for excess production is thrusting more Chinese brands to export, international markets can only offer some relief. 'The US market is completely closed and Japan and Korea may close very soon if they see an invasion of Chinese carmakers,' Mr Siebert said. 'Russia, which was the biggest export market last year, is now becoming very difficult. I also don't see South-east Asia as an opportunity anymore.' The pressure of cost cutting has also led analysts to express concern over supply chain finance risks. A price cut demand by BYD to one of its suppliers late in 2024 attracted scrutiny around how the car giant may be using supply chain financing to mask its ballooning debt. A report by accounting consultancy GMT Research put BYD's true net debt at closer to 323 billion yuan (S$57.9 billion), compared with the 27.7 billion yuan officially on its books as of the end of June 2024. The pain is also bleeding into China's dealdership network. Dealership groups in two provinces have gone out of business since April, both of them ones that were selling BYD cars. Beijing's meeting with automakers last week wasn't the first attempt at a ceasefire. Two years ago, in mid 2023, 16 major automakers, including Tesla Inc., BYD and Geely signed a pact, witnessed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, to avoid 'abnormal pricing.' Within days though, CAAM deleted one of the four commitments, saying that a reference to pricing in the pledge was inappropriate and in breach of a principle enshrined in the nation's antitrust laws. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.

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