2025 NHL playoff preview: Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens

New York Times

20-04-2025

By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
Be honest: Are you as excited about this series as you were a couple weeks ago, when Alex Ovechkin was sprinting toward Wayne Gretzky and the Montreal Canadiens were on a six-game win streak?
If the answer is 'no,' that's OK. Montreal nearly backed its way into the playoffs and the Washington Capitals hit a rough patch of their own. Still, this matchup brings a whole bunch of juice — the most prolific goal scorer of all time, the East's top team and the return of postseason hockey to one of the sport's true epicenters.
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Five words many Capitals fans dread: 'The Model likes the Capitals.'
As wrong as it has been regarding the Capitals for many years now (and there have been a lot of wrong instances), it would've been extremely difficult not to favor the Capitals against the Canadiens. The Capitals had a fantastic season where everything went right, while the Canadiens look every bit like a wildcard team fresh off a rebuild. Washington should have no trouble dispatching Montreal here with five games being the most likely result.
Of course, it's impossible not to see a mismatched series between the Capitals and Canadiens and not think about 2010. While this model did not exist 15 years ago, running it for that series produces a similar result: Washington as a 70 percent favorite.
Will Washington avenge its ghosts with a dominant series win over Montreal, or will history repeat itself with another upset?
With a minus-10 Net rating, the Canadiens are the weakest team in the playoff picture.
The Capitals were far from perfect defensively, but their goaltending was top-notch with just 2.02 GA/60 at five-on-five. The offense was buzzing, too. The Caps' shooting percentage was high, but their 2.79 xGF/60 added some oomph below the surface.
Washington's offense hasn't faded since the 4 Nations break, but there is one major difference: the goaltending. Over the last 27 games, the Capitals have allowed 3.08 GA/60 and earned a collective 0.875 save percentage.
Montreal's goalies have a combined 0.921 save percentage over that same stretch of play, which went a long way in the team's push for the playoffs. There have been some improvements in front of the blue paint at five-on-five since the break, but this team still doesn't control play as well as the Capitals have this season.
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The Caps come into this matchup with a special-teams edge, too. Goaltending helps equalize the penalty kill, especially down the stretch, but Washington's expected goal suppression is stronger. The Capitals' power play hasn't been as dangerous as years past, but they should have some openings in this series with Montreal's defense in mind. The Canadiens' shot quality is similar to Washington's since 4 Nations, but don't have the scoring to show for it.
Can Montreal handle the heat defensively?
Montreal's struggles in its own zone have been well-documented all year — even as this team pushed for a playoff seed down the stretch. Think back to the game against Detroit on April 8 when the Canadiens gave up 4.23 expected goals to one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Montreal won that game thanks to a herculean effort from Sam Montembeault, but that isn't the most sustainable strategy for long-term success.
Across 82 games, Montreal gave up 2.89 xGA/60 at five-on-five, a mark that was only better than two teams: the Ducks and the Sharks. As much as this team improved since 4 Nations, defense remained an issue down the stretch. The goaltenders masked those deficiencies better out of the break with 14.3 goals saved above expected in the last 26 games, which was second only to the Jets.
Diving into the penalty kill opens another can of worms, considering how much the team struggled below the surface in short-handed situations. Goaltending, again, was the difference-maker. But realistically, Montembeault can only stop the bleeding so much when facing such a demanding workload. That proved to be the case in late March, when the team allowed eight power-play goals in nine games.
The problem in Montreal isn't necessarily that opponents are gaining the offensive zone with speed and generating a high rate of chances in transition. It's that this team gets pinned in its own zone for extended stretches and can't break out, especially at even strength. The defenders struggle to retrieve pucks in their own end to regain possession and make a number of mistakes in the process. The Canadiens' 13.3 botched retrievals/60, according to AllThreeZones, is the worst in the league at five-on-five. In some ways, it's a sign of a young team. But is the personnel the only problem, or is it the system?
The answer is somewhere in the middle — a potential chicken and egg scenario. There are only three players on this roster with a positive Defensive Rating: Nick Suzuki, Kaiden Guhle, and Alex Carrier. Personnel is likely an issue, but it's possible that the team's hybrid defensive zone system doesn't help, making it more difficult for other players to post positive defensive results. It creates confusion, especially when players aren't decisive enough to know when to pressure the puck. Any mistakes in the decision-making process can lead to a long shift stuck in the defensive zone.
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Tie the two together, and the Canadiens' struggles make even more sense. That system can be tricky for up-and-coming players who are only just learning to defend at this level. That was the case for Lane Hutson earlier this year. His xGA/60 improved from 3.12 to 2.50 after 4 Nations. Moving him away from David Savard and alongside Guhle and Jayden Struble helped, so did a growing awareness from playing more.
If defense wins championships, the Canadiens may be in trouble. The Capitals have a deep offense that will challenge Montreal. But this experience, no matter what happens from here, will be a lesson on what needs to improve in the long run.
Can Ivan Demidov and Ryan Leonard be immediate difference-makers?
The first round is dotted with rookies who recently arrived in the NHL and figure to have a shot at impacting their teams. Ivan Demidov, the fifth pick in 2024 who played two games with Montreal after leaving the KHL, and Ryan Leonard, who finished another 30-goal season with Boston College in March, are at the top of the list.
Demidov rates higher here because of the season he had with SKA St. Petersburg; 19 goals and 30 assists in 60 professional games as a 19-year-old counts for plenty. Matvei Michkov projected similarly ahead of this season and generally lived up to it, putting up 26 goals and 37 assists as a rookie for Philadelphia. Less tangibly, Montreal needed a player like Demidov. His star potential is clear.
Leonard rates lower because of his nine largely uneventful games with Washington; his only point is an empty-net goal. The Caps are winning his minutes from an expected goal standpoint, though (56.7), and he's fourth on the team since April 1 with nearly 8 shots per 60 minutes. If he keeps getting third-line minutes, he'll continue to have a chance at making his mark.
Against the East's other contenders, there might be more questions about Washington's roster. Against a Canadiens team that's just happy to be here, it's clear the Capitals currently have the better roster.
That starts from the net out. While Logan Thompson fell off a bit before being sidelined with injury, he still proved this season that he has what it takes to be a high-end starter. Thompson finished eighth in GSAx this season saving 24.9 in 43 games. Not bad. And if he's not ready, Charlie Lindgren is a capable Plan B.
One of Washington's biggest strengths is what's immediately in front of its netminders: one of the league's deepest blue lines. From 1-to-6, the Capitals don't have a single weak link. Martin Fehervary's minus-0.7 Net Rating is still No. 4 caliber — a luxury that no other playoff team has. The Capitals carry five above-average defenders, giving them three solid mix-and-match pairs without much fear of who they'll be up against.
That quiet comfort starts with John Carlson, the veteran leader who had a renaissance season, scoring 51 points while posting career-best play-driving numbers. At 35, Carlson finished an impressive 12th among all defensemen in Net Rating. It goes beyond him, though, with a group that can handle any situation. Jakob Chychrun has found a forever home and adds offensive punch. Rasmus Sandin is a smooth-skating puck-mover who can hold his own in the top four. Matt Roy has added a defensive layer to the mix. And Trevor van Riemsdyk should be more well-regarded for his off-puck work. This is a really talented group, one that lands just outside the league's top five.
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All of that is a huge and underrated difference from last year's playoff Capitals whose most-used defensemen included Alex Alexeyev, Dylan McIlrath and Lucas Johansen.
That's allowed the forward group to play with the puck more in better situations. And it shows with some career years across the board. There are questions of sustainability, sure, but even with a best-guess estimate of true talent, the Capitals have a solid big four of top-line contributors. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson have been a shutdown force, earning 57 percent of the expected goals together. Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin have been dynamite offensively, scoring 3.8 goals per 60 together.
Two budding young stars are the wildcards in that equation: Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael. Both took significant strides this season, fitting extremely well with the established veteran duos. It's Protas who's the most intriguing, a rare combination of size, speed, and skill. He's going to be a problem for years to come and it feels like these playoffs will be where he takes his game even further.
Washington's depth beyond the top six doesn't have a lot of offensive upside (barring a Leonard breakout), but it makes up for that with its defensive game. Nic Dowd is one of the better defensive depth centers in the league, while Andrew Mangiapane drives play well to make up for his decreased scoring.
Nick Suzuki has proven he's a two-way star and has been a monster since the 4 Nations break. While his projected Net Rating isn't high, he played like a top 15 center this year, landing just a shade above Dubois.
Between Suzuki and Lane Hutson, the Canadiens have an elite one-two punch at the two most important positions — better than what the Capitals have. If they can keep their play up, they can make things interesting as the best players on the ice. Cole Caufield, fresh off a 37-goal season, can help with that, too.
The rest? They're just a little too green to be impactful in their current roles. Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov are wildcards with real offensive flair. Given their age, a quick and unexpected pop is possible — it's just hard to predict it until we see it. They give the forward group optimism, but their inexperience will more than likely be a disadvantage.
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It thins out really quickly after them with a real lack of offense outside of Patrik Laine's power-play ability. While that's also true of the Capitals, the Canadiens forwards don't have the defensive might to make up for it.
The back end could have some juice, but three of Montreal's top four defenders mostly just grade out as one-dimensionally average. Whatever Mike Matheson adds offensively, he gives back the other way. Whatever Kaiden Guhle and Alex Carrier provide defensively, they can't create the other way. And the third pair looks easily exploitable.
Montreal will one day have an elite blue line led by Hutson — though his size in a playoff atmosphere is also a question mark — but it just doesn't look like it's there yet.
The ace up Montreal's sleeve is Sam Montembeault. Those who still have nightmares about Jaroslav Halak will take no solace in the knowledge that Montembeault finished third in GSAx this season with 30.8 goals saved.
Over the last three seasons, only four goalies have saved more goals than Montembeault: Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, Linus Ullmark and Igor Shesterkin. He's the fourth-highest rated goalie in these playoffs for good reason. Whatever defensive deficiencies the Canadiens have — and they do have a lot of them — Montembeault covers them up well. If the team can dig in and hold their own without the puck, Montembeault can genuinely steal this series.
Alex Ovechkin vs. Lane Hutson
How much time the 40-year-old legend and the rookie defensemen spend on the ice together remains to be seen. They're cut from the same cloth, though, in one important way: they're not just productive players — they electrify the crowd. In the playoffs, that counts for something.
In Ovechkin's case, it's not just that he set the all-time goal record. It's that he did it in style, finishing on a hot streak that was equal parts surprising and inevitable. He's spent his entire career coming up big in big spots, and he spent the last couple of months proving that he still has the juice.
Hutson, like Ovechkin two decades ago, arrived in the NHL as a fully formed highlight machine. Sixty-six points as a D-man probably would've been enough to win him the Calder Trophy; the fact that he got there in style helped make him a lock.
The Canadiens and Capitals got to Round 1 in very different ways. Washington revitalized its aging core and locked up a playoff seed early. Montreal's next wave clinched at the last second.
But that doesn't matter — all that does is that these two teams are here and only four wins separates one from advancing.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of Lane Hutson and Alex Ovechkin: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)